Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good Friday morning!

Starting off a little cooler this morning compared to the last 4 or 5 or 10. Seems like forever whatever it's been. We will be getting colder, but the bad news for many is that we will be warming back up. 

Much cooler air to our north in Tennessee and the mountain of NC this morning, with rain over a large area over the central US and freezing rain over Kansas and Missouri. 

Snap346063484.thumb.png.d25262eb7aa8a965b9ca9f08e8569f91.png

 

Here's a zoomed in view of the winter mess.

Snap346063486.thumb.png.b90858709a0c55992188afe7c24d7b49.png

 

Considerably cooler and more seasonal this morning and this is the 24 hour temperature change.

rtma_t2m_diff_conus_202001170945.thumb.png.7c086fd86069c4aa29563e65adffa182.png

While our snow drought continues, others are buried in it.

 

NWS Atlanta
 

Quote

The long term period begins with a cold front moving through the
area. NBM seems to be holding onto the precip a little long for
North GA given the position of the front and will therefore shift
main precip axis further south and include some continued likely
pops. Some elevated instability does creep into the SW corner of
the forecast area and will include some isolated thunder with this
issuance as the front hangs slightly over Central GA as a
secondary shortwave moves in.

Winter will finally make a re-appearance across the area behind
the front with highs in the mid 40s across the North on Sunday and
temps struggling to get out of the 30s across the far north on
Monday. Looks to be a very cold night Monday night with low to mid
20s for most areas and with continued slightly elevated winds,
wind chill values will be well into the teens.

Clipper type system moves to the north of the area for Mon night
into Tue which acts to re-enforce the cold shot. As a result,
temps on Tue afternoon will once again be in the low to mid 40s
for most areas.

We will be getting colder and it will feel more like winter, but it doesn't last forever. The pattern starts off with some amplification, but then goes flat toward the end of next week as can be seen in this 1000=500 mb thickness loop. You can see the incursion of the colder air for Monday-Wednesday, but then the amplification smooths out and we go back into a zonal flow. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-thck_1000-500-1579219200-1579219200-1580601600-40.thumb.gif.1e8dc2f6db865d8345c3489a38ae9385.gif

So we wait some more. Don't you just love winter weather roller coasters? Yea... didn't think so. 😉 

Here are the upcoming temperature anomalies from the GFS

gfs-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-1579240800-1579240800-1580407200-80.thumb.gif.bd62dc6d2cd75f7470eb80c69941c427.gif

Two weeks to go in January, hopefully we can scrounge something up before the end of the month, otherwise on to February. I've always liked February snows anyway and we seem to have more of those than we do in January. I need to go back and look to see if that's true. 

So enjoy the day, the weather should be great! However, you might want to put the shorts away, at least for the next 5 days or so. 🙂
Have a great Friday!

forecast-17.png.7f4f63053e124f22a84c142db0b52d8f.png

Snap346063487.png.51990fd5349d2f9201b075e699ca3fff.png

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, matt40 said:

No snow chance for the 24/25th timeframe?

Nope or the 28th like was shown on the GFS a couple of days ago. Sadly, this great pattern change,did happen, but it looks to be about a week of below normal, with no moisture, then we are back to normal/above normal temps and rain. I would say the positive vibes from last week , about a prolonged change to below normal and stormy, are looking bleak at the moment. A lot of long range weeklies look great for February, but they are usually wrong when they show cold!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

This pattern always had its warts when it came to snow production. Mainly the fast flow exit off the Atlantic, and then to make it worse the trough is going to setup too far east. We will get our cold, and thankfully kiss the death ridge goodbye, but snow chances for now look bleak. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

This pattern always had its warts when it came to snow production. Mainly the fast flow exit off the Atlantic, and then to make it worse the trough is going to setup too far east. We will get our cold, and thankfully kiss the death ridge goodbye, but snow chances for now look bleak. 

At this point let’s just hope for enough chill to slow Spring Vegetation down and hopefully enough chill hours for Peach and blueberry farmers and other agricultural interests! What is another year without snow?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately,  My concerns were real and are proving to be a reality.  I would have been much rather have been proven to be   worrysome worrywart whiner... :-)     THE GOOD THING ABOUT IT IS------ All that needs to happen is a turn about on the models AND I WILL FALL FOR THE NONSENSE AGAIN... haha.   It is so funny, really about the wishing for snow part.  At the age of 60 ( will be March 22) I have had 1-- count it--- 1 white Christmas.  2010.  Even living in Ohio, i did not have one.  Had a white Thanksgiving while there, but it warmed up and melted it all away and soon was back again about two days afterward....

so........It is a sad but awfully FUNNY CYCLE

Just call me Bob and the weather Kevin

giphy (1).gif

Edited by RickyD
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Rusty said:

At this point let’s just hope for enough chill to slow Spring Vegetation down and hopefully enough chill hours for Peach and blueberry farmers and other agricultural interests! What is another year without snow?

Agreed. I've been lucky enough to have snow the past 2 winters but when it all comes in December it's hardly satisfying. 

I haven't had any measurable snow this year though, which if it ends that way would be in incredibly rare territory. I don't have the records to back this up, but it legitimately may have never happened. Greenville Spartanburg only has 1 winter since the late 1800s with absolutely no measurable snow and that was 2012 when I know I had snow here. In my lifetime I've never seen a complete shutout. That's the main reason that I'll be happy with a slightly below normal February and hope that climo comes through. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Maybe a tiny chance of some freezing rain tomorrow, but I doubt anyone will see it. If it happens at all, it would mainly be along the ridgetops. Nothing to see here...

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-frzr_total-9374000.thumb.png.e1ffe66ef40cd34539adf9ed1d74a7e0.png

nbm-conus-atlanta-lineice-9381200.thumb.png.6987272143d7dafa485e2a02a47ddb22.png

 

ndfd-conus-atlanta-frzr_total-9370400.thumb.png.9d54010a06c1ede52eca7ce2478fded5.png

 

Will keep you updated from Sky Valley, the short term/high res models look moisture starved in this area though. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 8 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...