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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, February 7

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17 minutes ago, Wedge said:

Good thing or bad thing for snow

Good thing. I've still got a forecast for mid 40s and rain with no snow accumulation with not a single model showing that. 

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24 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Looks to me like the majority of short range guidance is starting to form a consensus. I expect forecast packages from the NWS to change drastically this afternoon for the NE part of the state. 

Absolutely. Myself here in Buford is hoping the NAM is correct haha. I just want to see some decent flakes!

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Good thing. I've still got a forecast for mid 40s and rain with no snow accumulation with not a single model showing that. 

What area are y’all looking at? I’m in West GA and I’m dying for some snow 😂. My weather app for tomorrow says 52 with morning showers and a low of 29. I much rather prefer rain over snow!

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NAM 3KM was pretty solid this morning with it's guidance here in Rabun County. It's showing an advisory level event tomorrow for Rabun. 

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8 minutes ago, Tori said:

What area are y’all looking at? I’m in West GA and I’m dying for some snow 😂. My weather app for tomorrow says 52 with morning showers and a low of 29. I much rather prefer rain over snow!

All short range models are showing snow for tomorrow. West GA unfortunately may get left out. Most models it doesn't really get its act together until getting further east. Thing's could change though. 

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31 minutes ago, Tori said:

What area are y’all looking at? I’m in West GA and I’m dying for some snow 😂. My weather app for tomorrow says 52 with morning showers and a low of 29. I much rather prefer rain over snow!

Channel 2 is talking about it now. Hopefully we get lucky with a dusting. Never know!

 

(I meant to say prefer snow over rain in my previous post) 😂

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Looks to me like the majority of short range guidance is starting to form a consensus. I expect forecast packages from the NWS to change drastically this afternoon for the NE part of the state. 

How much snow you think? Looked to be darker blue on the NAM.

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The NAM is definitely more aggressive than most models but a couple short range models are not far behind it either. Hopefully some of us get a nice surprise because it certainly could be the last.

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47 minutes ago, bowler20 said:

Could you show a screenshot of what the models are saying? 

So here's a glimpse at what all the models that are through their 12z update are showing. Euro suite and GFS Ensemble will be a little later. 

GFSgfs-deterministic-georgia-snow_24hr-1217200.thumb.png.afd179a20bc79f416baae5c793cf41fe.png

Canadiangem-all-georgia-snow_24hr-1217200.thumb.png.0912d2f4b0f62087663dcd513fb616f7.png

Experimental HRRRhrrr-conus-georgia-snow_24hr-1206400.thumb.png.1883bff271fa91d11200845ecf10a650.png

NAM 3kmnam-nest-conus-georgia-snow_24hr-1206400.thumb.png.47c2195a6e9fa36cc7b0f856e8a50d3f.png

WRFncep-wrf-nmmb-conus-georgia-snow_24hr-1210000.thumb.png.7248befcbe07c3317a49124050c325da.png

Hi-Res Canadianrgem-all-georgia-snow_24hr-1210000.thumb.png.f129e1740700d0e2c880131b7a38e959.png

SREF Meansref-all-mean-georgia-snow_24hr-1238800.thumb.png.4850e5aea09a7bb57133d2003d7d288d.png

The amounts vary by some degree but a consensus is forming on there being measurable snowfall over much of North Georgia tomorrow morning. GFS and Euro ensembles have both been trending upwards for a few runs in a row now as well. Blairsville GEFS mean at 6z was around an inch and a half with 8 out of 20 members being 2 inch plus and only 3 below an inch. 

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GEFS is up again and pushes snow further south and westward. The run to run trend on the GEFS has been impressive. Going from this at 12z yesterday. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr-1228000.thumb.png.446694a20613ab151062f93cf09d4f38.png

To this at 12z today. 781174987_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr-1228000(1).thumb.png.91426df1c7d016f8449d145c8f2ffea5.png

The changes are self evident. Barring last minute changes, this one looks legit. Nothing huge, but given how this winter has gone, I'll happily accept this. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

GEFS is up again and pushes snow further south and westward. The run to run trend on the GEFS has been impressive. Going from this at 12z yesterday. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr-1228000.thumb.png.446694a20613ab151062f93cf09d4f38.png

To this at 12z today. 781174987_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr-1228000(1).thumb.png.91426df1c7d016f8449d145c8f2ffea5.png

The changes are self evident. Barring last minute changes, this one looks legit. Nothing huge, but given how this winter has gone, I'll happily accept this. 

Exactly. We need to accept this potential novelty and soak it in haha

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Hey it is a start and who knows it just might be a surprise of more rather than less....fingers crossed.  Athens area saw some flurries this morning so I figured that that might be a good sign for tomorrow.

 

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The 12z EURO says game on and wants to put down a quick inch or two even in the north metro

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4 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The 12z EURO says game on and wants to put down a quick inch or two even in the north metro. 

I saw that! The trends since this time yesterday have pushed the snow a whole lot further south and west. I think it's just picking up on how cold the upper levels are going to be, that even with a warm boundary layer that far south it could still be mostly or all snow. Now accumulations could be tough, definitely no travel concerns in the metro. 

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

I saw that! The trends since this time yesterday have pushed the snow a whole lot further south and west. I think it's just picking up on how cold the upper levels are going to be, that even with a warm boundary layer that far south it could still be mostly or all snow. Now accumulations could be tough, definitely no travel concerns in the metro. 

Yeah I am not really anticipating much in the way of accumulations unless it falls quick enough but it would be cool just to see that amount of snow simply fall.

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This makes me happy.  I need some happy.  
 

It is still spitting flakes here in NE cobb and has been all day.  No accumulation, of course, but I did see some accumulation in roof valleys.

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Not going to lie, I have been checking about every five minutes to see if NWS in Greenville has released its afternoon discussion. 

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

Not going to lie, I have been checking about every five minutes to see if NWS in Greenville has released its afternoon discussion. 

You and me both lol. Ready to see them finally commit to this being a real thing. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

You and me both lol. Ready to see them finally commit to this being a real thing. 

Winter Weather Advisory just issued, I think one inch is on the low end for us in Sky Valley though. 

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