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Friday, February 7

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Already seeing radar returns out west. Models didn’t really have it showing that early. 

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Just now, Shannon said:

Already seeing radar returns out west. Models didn’t really have it showing that early. 

Does that mean there will be more moisture to work with? 

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5 minutes ago, Tori said:

Does that mean there will be more moisture to work with? 

Could be or could mean nothing. I do know we did not get as warm today in my area, Buford, as predicted. 

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9 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Already seeing radar returns out west. Models didn’t really have it showing that early. 

Yeah that’s interesting. Not a single short term model, even the HRRR has that precip there.

9 minutes ago, Tori said:

Does that mean there will be more moisture to work with? 

Tough to read into at this point. Depends if it is actually associated with our system or still with the exiting ULL. If it is with our system it could potentially mean an earlier onset. 

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I’m on the west side, so I know we may get the shaft but man, I cannot wait to hopefully watch some more flakes fall tomorrow! 

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah that’s interesting. Not a single short term model, even the HRRR has that precip there.

Tough to read into at this point. Depends if it is actually associated with our system or still with the exiting ULL. If it is with our system it could potentially mean an earlier onset. 

I was thinking maybe earlier as well which wouldn’t be a bad thing 

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I’m also going out on a limb and saying this may come in earlier based off radar returns out west. 

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I’m also going out on a limb and saying this may come in earlier based off radar returns out west. 

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30 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The 0z NAM rolling in already looks drier than previous run. 

Still lots of snow

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2 hours ago, RickyD said:

What is it looking for my grandchildren at Calhoun ,King?

Got caught in a deadzone this evening so I've been MIA for a bit lol. But based on what I'm seeing they should have a good shot at at least an inch maybe a couple. Of course being that far west there is the risk that precip breaks out a little late for them, but trends today have made that seem less likely. 

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Almost every time over the past few weeks the system has over achieved and arrived earlier than most short models indicated, especially with both recent severe systems. Also, even with the NAM rolling back a smidge, some of the others have grown. If I were a betting man, I would risk saying I think this system will over achieve. I'm in Blue Ridge, so obviously in a higher elevation so I can't speak for everyone. But I think 2-4 inches is likely for us. This reminds me a lot of two years ago like everyone else has mentioned, where we got 10 inches. I don't think THAT is going to happen, but I do believe most of us will wake up like Christmas morning tomorrow. Here's to hoping!

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33 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Sky is clear at the moment here in Southeastern Dawson County, hope it clouds up soon, lol

Being clear overnight is actually a good thing as it allows for ample radiational cooling. Clouds moving in prior to sunset over top of a frost is a good signal that it's about to snow. Based on trends I've seen today I think somewhere around Dawson, Pickens, Lumpkin, Hall counties could bullseye with this one and pick up 3-4 inches easy. There's an old saying that to get the best snow you've got to be able to smell the rain. Basically saying that being far enough south to get in the heaviest moisture, but just far enough north to stay cold enough for snow. 

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I think the 18z run on the NAM was just overdone. I said then that it having 3/4 inch liquid showing up was a bit suspect. If you compare 0z to 12z though it's still better basically everywhere except the metro area. 

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Anyone know how west Georgia like Haralson county is looking? Didn’t know if there was any difference from earlier 

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4 minutes ago, Tori said:

Anyone know how west Georgia like Haralson county is looking? Didn’t know if there was any difference from earlier 

It'll be close for your area. Could get some, might not. It's gonna depend on temps and how quickly precip blossoms. No way to know for sure, gonna come down to now-casting. 

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Quote

Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-DeKalb-
Including the cities of Calhoun, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Rome,
Cartersville, Gainesville, Marietta, Atlanta, Lawrenceville,
and Decatur
930 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected...mixed with rain at times. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches...possibly three to four
  inches at higher elevations. Amounts of generally less than an
  inch possible for the Atlanta Metro area.

* WHERE...Generally west of Interstate 85 and north of
  Interstate 20.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions...especially on
  bridges and overpasses...or during heavier bursts of snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to warm by
  afternoon so a transition to all rain should bring improving
  conditions. However the northeast mountains could continue to
  see periods of snow through the day. Temperatures should drop
  below freezing again Saturday night...making black ice
  possible on Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
 

Snap346063653.png.47c15719869de1182993f5c5b92de36c.png

 

Short range models are in pretty good agreement. I'm optimistic.

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-1249600.thumb.png.091d807d5048775e0bceb76a0acc6f60.png

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-1188400.thumb.png.03caeec20d06521697fdf59938019b6e.png

2027824926_nam-218-all-georgia-total_snow_10to1-1184800(1).thumb.png.aeff75e1a51567a1a34540d1ac0418fa.png

 

hrrr-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-1188400.png

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