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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, February 13

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Good morning!

Rain is passing through this morning is bringing some heavy rain at times along with some gusty winds, but nothing severe at this point in time. (EDIT: The 3-4 NE georgia counties under the GSP forecast area are under a Severe Thunderstorm right now)

Snap346063754.thumb.png.44338c5878eddc1d2adb0b10f785e606.png

 

There may be a greater chance of severe weather as the line pushes toward the SE but most likely not over north Georgia.

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We may have a little winter weather on the horizon, no guarantees right now, but if the Euro says it's so, it must be so. 🙂 At the moment, the GFS doesn't want any part of it, so the battle begins. 

These are obviously individual model runs and will change, so view these as entertainment purposes only.
NOT A FORECAST
A little weird but ok... It does remind me of the Snow Jam 2 snowfall with some cold air in place and overrunning moisture from SW to NE. 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1581552000-1581984000-1582416000-80.thumb.gif.b886f2d92261c39adf2a64ad068af50e.gif

 

You can see by the thickness levels and their location in this image that it would be cold enough to generate snow.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2243200.thumb.png.64bf0e1e27f1c2181d042cd509c1f72a.png

 

The Euro operational does have ensemble support...ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-2416000.thumb.png.be5b4d67d4e1f05a81c53e90a7905f50.png

 

But there are lots of different solutions among the ensemble members.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2416000.thumb.png.54e2a2117560454f63b387fb3c22ff94.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2416000.thumb.png.89f32d866dca38820aa837c72409e6bf.png

 

We are a week away, so it may get better or it may get worse... no way to know at this point. So we will watch and wait. 🙂

We will start drying out later today, so that is good news! 
Hope everyone has a great Thursday!
 

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Epic February heatwave continues! Probably going to be a lot of record high overnight minimum temperatures this morning! 66 here in Athens!?!? 70 at 8:00 am.??? Hopefully once in a lifetime event! This would just about be a record high minimum in East Central Florida where I grew up!!! WOW!!!

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3 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Epic February heatwave continues! Probably going to be a lot of record high overnight minimum temperatures this morning! 66 here in Athens!?!? 70 at 8:00 am.??? Hopefully once in a lifetime event! This would just about be a record high minimum in East Central Florida where I grew up!!! WOW!!!

My numbers

Snap346063761.png.4a15a6de05e2787981a8769d2bb333cc.png

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4 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Epic February heatwave continues! Probably going to be a lot of record high overnight minimum temperatures this morning! 66 here in Athens!?!? 70 at 8:00 am.??? Hopefully once in a lifetime event! This would just about be a record high minimum in East Central Florida where I grew up!!! WOW!!!

Nice spread in temperatures this morning.

Snap346063762.thumb.png.d156d6c4393c32876001064a75e8b8d5.png

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Has anyone heard about people predicting a blizzard for the east coast?  I don't even know the timing, a friend of mine read it and asked me about it.  Just wondering. 🙂

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35 minutes ago, WDN4 said:

Has anyone heard about people predicting a blizzard for the east coast?  I don't even know the timing, a friend of mine read it and asked me about it.  Just wondering. 🙂

LOL! Yes, I covered that in a FB post yesterday (or day before...). It was a bold "prediction" that we would see a "Storm of The Century" type storm between the end of the month and March 10 (or something to that effect). 

As much as I'd love to see that, those odds are about 0.5% to 1% probability of happening here in the southeast. It takes the perfect ingredients and perfect timing and it is VERY rare. To predict that this far in advance with zero model support is wishcasting plain and simple. 

Here's the thing. IF a storm like that were to happen, I think March is the best month with the most dynamics. That doesn't mean it's likely.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

LOL! Yes, I covered that in a post yesterday (or day before...). It was a bold "prediction" that we would see a "Storm of The Century" type storm between the end of the month and March 10 (or something to that effect). 

As much as I'd love to see that, those odds are about 0.5% to 1% probability of happening here in the southeast. It takes the perfect ingredients and perfect timing and it is VERY rare. To predict that this far in advance with zero model support is wishcasting plain and simple. 

Here's the thing. IF a storm like that were to happen, I think March is the best month with the most dynamics. That doesn't mean it's likely.

Thanks, I will pass along the information. (Information that I trust!)

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I posted to him this morning. I told him he had a good imagination.  Went back to 1993 and the Glenn Burns story.  Nobody believed what they saw in the models. The odds were next to impossible to align up and phasing to occur. And now he is willing to say such without any model proof or suggestion??  Imagination.  I told him odds were it would happen again.... in 100 years

Edited by RickyD
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Two of my weather apps are showing snow for next Saturday. Don’t worry, I know all about weather apps, which is why I follow you.

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21 minutes ago, LEmbs said:

Two of my weather apps are showing snow for next Saturday. Don’t worry, I know all about weather apps, which is why I follow you.

Hey! At least it's good confirmation!

 

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4 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

A very strongly positive (off the chart) Arctic Oscillation (+AO) has the cold air locked up tight for now.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-1552000.thumb.png.bb808dc7022007722209a8b8c7ad7f18.png

It's amazing to me that in the middle of this we keep getting decent short-lived cold shots. Nothing severe, but cold enough for winter weather at least. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Another good Euro run. I'd sign off on that exact event right now if I could. Don't wanna get too greedy hoping for a big one. 

Only 7 days out, I think that’s good!

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Just now, SNOW said:

Only 7 days out, I think that’s good!

Oh definitely! This threat is very real, unlike some we've seen at day 10+ this year. Still might turn sour, as it's a tough pattern to score in. But hey, this past weekend worked out so well its got me feeling optimistic lol. 

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Still out of range for this but the setup applies. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 16 2020 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2020

1800 UTC Update...

Models continue to show some significant differences with the
specific evolution of a broad upper trough across the
western/central U.S. next week.
The ECMWF continues to emphasize
the leading shortwave more, resulting in stronger height falls
(relative to the GFS) spreading across the Midwest/Great Lakes
next Mon-Wed, and a deeper low pressure system across the
Midwest/Great Lakes during that time frame. The GFS emphasizes a
trailing shortwave, which amplifies/cuts off across the Great
Basin/West Coast toward the middle of next week, resulting in a
somewhat weaker low pressure system across the Midwest/Great
Lakes. The outcome between these scenarios also has implications
for temperatures across the central/eastern U.S. toward the middle
of next week. The ECMWF idea would be colder across these areas,
with more northerly flow from higher latitudes, while the GFS is
much more zonal and would potentially be a good bit warmer.
As
with the overnight issuance, a compromise/blended approach was
favored at this time as ensembles showed a good degree of
clustering around both of these ideas. Thus, a blend of the 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET was used heavily during days 3-5 (Sun-Tue)
for
this forecast update, with a shift to greater emphasis on the
ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for days 6-7 (Wed-Thu).
Overall, a
forecast relatively close to continuity was maintained, and
changes were relatively small.

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18 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I did find my favorite ensemble member

Snap346063768.png.a4f360e1a1efab448b50911572105bd0.png

Basically a Southeast snow-apocalypse with foot plus snows hitting all the major cities lol. 

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2 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Basically a Southeast snow-apocalypse with foot plus snows hitting all the major cities lol. 

Go big!

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19 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Go big!

Guess there is a reason they say go big OR go home, cause there's gonna be a lot of people on those interstates not going home if it goes that big lol. 

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