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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, February 13

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13 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Models still trending the right way for winter weather next week?

Still there on the Euro suite. GFS says no but seems to be an outlier among other guidance right now on leaving the energy behind out west. At this range it's just a wait and see game. See how things go over the weekend, and by Monday we should know if we're gonna be tracking for real next week. 

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18 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

I want to start model tracking already lol

Hey no harm in keeping an eye on them, it's just that the run to run changes can be so large at this range that it can be hard to actually "track" anything. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Hey no harm in keeping an eye on them, it's just that the run to run changes can be so large at this range that it can be hard to actually "track" anything. 

That’s fair. Just exciting to see something 7 days out

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1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

That’s fair. Just exciting to see something 7 days out

Absolutely, and no better model suite to have in your corner than the ECMWF. It's 5 day verification scores have been ridiculously good this winter. If things start to converge on a good solution through Sunday, I'll start getting very excited. 

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Absolutely, and no better model suite to have in your corner than the ECMWF. It's 5 day verification scores have been ridiculously good this winter. If things start to converge on a good solution through Sunday, I'll start getting very excited. 

I was about to say the fact it’s the ECMWF is the most exciting part, maybe the GFS will hop on board too

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5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

I was about to say the fact it’s the ECMWF is the most exciting part, maybe the GFS will hop on board too

Crazy enough it was actually first. 2 days ago it showed this but then it went away from it. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.thumb.png.330ba6f92449649d93368ae96d21574d.png

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8 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Crazy enough it was actually first. 2 days ago it showed this but then it went away from it. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.thumb.png.330ba6f92449649d93368ae96d21574d.png

Would you mind posting what it looks like now?

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1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Would you mind posting what it looks like now?

Not even worth the post, there's literally nothing there. GFS is cutting off our "target" piece of energy over the SW US and leaving it behind/delaying it so its dry during our window of cold temps. 

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Not even worth the post, there's literally nothing there. GFS is cutting off our "target" piece of energy over the SW US and leaving it behind/delaying it so its dry during our window of cold temps. 

I mean the Euro, my bad

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Oh okay, this is what it showed from the run around 2 today. It doesn't run again for another few hours. ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_kuchera-2437600.thumb.png.7cbad8fbd3e7057d3697a31c396d76f6.png

Wow that’s a lot 

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12 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

GFS definitely took a big step toward the Euro. Hopefully the Euro holds serve tonight. 

It is getting exciting in here!!

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5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

It is getting exciting in here!!

Still a long ways to go, but this is certainly the most concrete threat we've seen from this far out this winter. I am thoroughly intrigued, but won't let myself get excited until inside 5 days at the earliest. Too many heartbreaks in the past lol

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13 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Still a long ways to go, but this is certainly the most concrete threat we've seen from this far out this winter. I am thoroughly intrigued, but won't let myself get excited until inside 5 days at the earliest. Too many heartbreaks in the past lol

That makes sense. I’m just holding out hope

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And the Euro backs off, so we still sit at square 1. Definitely a threat window, but no real consistency or agreement among models to begin tracking anything truly, and thus we wait.

FWIW with last weekends snow the models trended away from anything significant through the medium range before coming back inside day 3. Not saying that's gonna happen, just that it's not "game over" just because the models lose it for a while. 

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7 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

And the Euro backs off, so we still sit at square 1. Definitely a threat window, but no real consistency or agreement among models to begin tracking anything truly, and thus we wait.

FWIW with last weekends snow the models trended away from anything significant through the medium range before coming back inside day 3. Not saying that's gonna happen, just that it's not "game over" just because the models lose it for a while. 

I might give up.. no more heart break 

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