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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, February 14

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Good morning!

A little cooler and drier start to the day this morning compared to what we've had for a while. Temperatures are in the low 30's to upper 20's and I'm running about 22 degrees lower than at this time yesterday. 

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It will be sunny and cool today and tomorrow but the rain returns again starting during the day on Sunday and continues on through the end of next week. 7 day rainfall totals look like this.

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Yesterday the Euro seemed to have latched onto a potential winter weather event late next week, but this morning it has lost it. Instead, the GFS now sees something. Temperatures are marginal even above the surface although the Euro is colder than the GFS. It looks like a wedge but the pressures don't match. The flow is very zonal so I'm not really sure why it thinks it will snow as much as it shows. 

NOT A FORECAST

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So there is still a glimmer of hope, but nothing to write home about right now.  

I'm going to take a little bit of a break today since it will be nice and sunny! I think we're headed up to Gibbs Gardens tomorrow to see the flowers, they open for the season today. I've never been there but we got a couple of season passes for this year since our future house will be about 9 miles away, so it makes it real convenient. 🙂 

Get out and enjoy some rain free weather for a few days. Yes, it will be a little cool but it's winter so it's suppose to be! 
Have a great start to the weekend!

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1 hour ago, Preston said:

GFS is holding out hope for a storm next week!

Yeah just looking at the soundings, its definitely borderline but it's definitely all snow for the majority of the event, possible turning to sleet or rain at the end. 850's are in the -4 range the whole storm here, which likely means the surface is too warm because we just saw the same thing this past weekend. Super cold 850's plus snow usually results in that cold air being pulled down to the surface. Now the 925's do go above freezing at the end, but there are many areas up here most likely including you that don't have a 925 layer because your elevation sits above it. 

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19 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah just looking at the soundings, its definitely borderline but it's definitely all snow for the majority of the event, possible turning to sleet or rain at the end. 850's are in the -4 range the whole storm here, which likely means the surface is too warm because we just saw the same thing this past weekend. Super cold 850's plus snow usually results in that cold air being pulled down to the surface. Now the 925's do go above freezing at the end, but there are many areas up here most likely including you that don't have a 925 layer because your elevation sits above it. 

I'm interested in what the EURO has to say about it with this run that just started. It's still too far out to put much stock in amounts or anything but I am beginning to like the setup that we have going mid-late next week. WPC has the North Georgia mountains in the 10-30% range for probability of exceeding 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet which basically translates to winter storm warning criteria for our area.  

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Just now, Preston said:

I'm interested in what the EURO has to say about it with this run that just started. It's still too far out to put much stock in amounts or anything but I am beginning to like the setup that we have going mid-late next week. WPC has the North Georgia mountains in the 10-30% range for probability of exceeding 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet which basically translates to winter storm warning criteria for our area.  

Setup is similar to December 2017 I think. Not really any surface based low pressure, but a stalled boundary to the south and ample SW flow out of the gulf over running the cold air. We need the boundary to get far enough to deliver our cold air but not too far as to suppress our moisture. It's gonna be a close call as of now, but the right ingredients are all on the board right now and that's all we can hope for. 

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Setup is similar to December 2017 I think. Not really any surface based low pressure, but a stalled boundary to the south and ample SW flow out of the gulf over running the cold air. We need the boundary to get far enough to deliver our cold air but not too far as to suppress our moisture. It's gonna be a close call as of now, but the right ingredients are all on the board right now and that's all we can hope for. 

Don't make me feel all fuzzy inside talking about December 2017 like that 🤣 but you are right it is a similar setup.

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Setup is similar to December 2017 I think. Not really any surface based low pressure, but a stalled boundary to the south and ample SW flow out of the gulf over running the cold air. We need the boundary to get far enough to deliver our cold air but not too far as to suppress our moisture. It's gonna be a close call as of now, but the right ingredients are all on the board right now and that's all we can hope for. 

How are we feeling today? I’ve been away not looking at models any new trends?

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

Don't make me feel all fuzzy inside talking about December 2017 like that 🤣 but you are right it is a similar setup.

Lol, the moisture may be far less and the temps closer to borderline but the setup is similar. Shows the potential at least if everything goes right, probably why there has been so many high outliers on the ensembles. If (big if) we get cold enough and a true gulf fire hose goes off like in 2017 then it could be a bigger event like some individual ensemble members have showed. 

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5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

How are we feeling today? I’ve been away not looking at models any new trends?

Another couple hours before I'll say for sure (waiting on Euro and EPS) but so far so good. GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show snow in N GA which means our threat is still alive, and that's all we are hoping for at this range. 

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Another couple hours before I'll say for sure (waiting on Euro and EPS) but so far so good. GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show snow in N GA which means our threat is still alive, and that's all we are hoping for at this range. 

Yea, I'm waiting on the Euro right now, it's out to 129 hours (Wed) on Weatherbell

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Looks like it's gonna stay suppressed and dry. Amazing that as all the other guidance trended away from cutting off the energy in the SW it has trended towards it. If it wasn't the Euro I wouldn't be worried, but it's 5 day verification scores are great, and we hit 5 days out tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Well dang 

Not over yet. Just our typical roller coaster ride of long range model watching. Odd to say the least to see every model trend towards the Euro only for the Euro to drop it. Features on the GFS and Euro are actually fairly well lined up, but they have different ideas about the strengths of said features. More waiting I'm afraid. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Flat

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GFS is fairly flat too, but it keys in on different parts of the vort diving down and weakens the SW portion quickly. With a thermal gradient in place the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to any well placed energy, so flat can still work, but things have to be perfect. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Not over yet. Just our typical roller coaster ride of long range model watching. Odd to say the least to see every model trend towards the Euro only for the Euro to drop it. Features on the GFS and Euro are actually fairly well lined up, but they have different ideas about the strengths of said features. More waiting I'm afraid. 

I know it’s still so far out, I’m just laying in bed sick today And wanted something to get excited about. 

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