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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, February 14

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33 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Another couple hours before I'll say for sure (waiting on Euro and EPS) but so far so good. GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show snow in N GA which means our threat is still alive, and that's all we are hoping for at this range. 

Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

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I wouldn't give up on things just yet. It's not unusual for these systems to be lost and regained. I would much rather be in this spot have to work against the suppression that trying to get the system to trend south. It will be interesting to see if others models start jumping on board with the suppression idea though. 

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2 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

For now I'd say yeah more than likely, but 850s are very cold so could be some ptype concerns even down there. But really it's too far out for that level of detail yet. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

For now I'd say yeah more than likely, but 850s are very cold so could be some ptype concerns even down there. But really it's too far out for that level of detail yet. 

I figured it’s too far out, haha but what detail I could make out looked like it wasn’t in our favor! 
 

Paulding got theirs Dec 2017, I’m just jonesing for more lol

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6 minutes ago, Preston said:

I wouldn't give up on things just yet. It's not unusual for these systems to be lost and regained. I would much rather be in this spot have to work against the suppression that trying to get the system to trend south. It will be interesting to see if others models start jumping on board with the suppression idea though. 

Yeah, and this is such a fickle setup it's gonna be hard to pin down for a while. It's not like we've actually got a discrete surface based LP for the models to track. Instead it's a thermal gradient pattern with just little bits of energy running along the boundary. May need to wait for higher resolution models to have a good feel for it. 

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So with the 12z models now done, I'd say that my confidence has certainly went down from yesterday but I'm far from throwing in the towel. The strangest part of that is that there are actually more models on board today, but when the king speaks you better listen lol. 

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1 hour ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

I know it’s still so far out, I’m just laying in bed sick today And wanted something to get excited about. 

Hope you feel better!

Here's the GFS, it says we're still in the game. Need to see its ensembles.
NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-2221600.thumb.png.33bb76ff3ef34a13bfdf09eb6c4d0aa6.png

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Hope you feel better!

Here's the GFS, it says we're still in the game. Need to see its ensembles.
NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-2221600.thumb.png.33bb76ff3ef34a13bfdf09eb6c4d0aa6.png

EPS looks awful compared to yesterday 😩

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10 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

EPS looks awful compared to yesterday 😩

Very small differences are making up the differences we are seeing in the models. Things actually moved into better agreement as far as placement of features. Differences in the strengths and timing are causing differences in the amount of moisture transport we see aloft. CMC, UKMET, and GFS are the most aggressive with setting up moisture transport off the pacific, while ECMWF and ICON are the least aggressive. Still in the game nearing 5 days out is the most important part. 

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Very small differences are making up the differences we are seeing in the models. Things actually moved into better agreement as far as placement of features. Differences in the strengths and timing are causing differences in the amount of moisture transport we see aloft. CMC, UKMET, and GFS are the most aggressive with setting up moisture transport off the pacific, while ECMWF and ICON are the least aggressive. Still in the game nearing 5 days out is the most important part. 

That’s fair enough, just sucks to see the Euro was so aggressive yesterday and not so much today 

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Very small differences are making up the differences we are seeing in the models. Things actually moved into better agreement as far as placement of features. Differences in the strengths and timing are causing differences in the amount of moisture transport we see aloft. CMC, UKMET, and GFS are the most aggressive with setting up moisture transport off the pacific, while ECMWF and ICON are the least aggressive. Still in the game nearing 5 days out is the most important part. 

Latest GFS is gorgeous 

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4 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

So I actually wanna take back what I said earlier to this question. My impulse is always to say yes to this question because our climatology says that is usually the case. But given that this could actually be a rates driven event, further south could actually be a better spot. 850 temps look very cold region wide with a very shallow warm boundary. Anywhere that gets heavy enough moisture should be able to drive that cold air to the ground and temps fall to around freezing. A lot like what was seen further east this past weekend where the temps warmed quite a bit before dropping again once the heavier snow moved in.

Therefore there could actually be a sweet spot somewhere south of the mountains that has the right over lap of cold enough temps and heavy rates. 

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4 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

Specifics, while they might be exciting, are never reality this far out. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Specifics, while they might be exciting, are never reality this far out. 

Yeah, I probably should've noted that in my post lol. I was speaking specifically off of the scenario that the GFS and Canadian models are showing today. 

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Hard not to like the look on the GFS today though. Fairly potent upper level moisture with connections all the way back in the tropical pacific.

Would love to see this setup on the short term models that can actually pick up the upslope enhancement up here in the mountains. 

gfs-deterministic-conus-rh700-2178400.png

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4 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

 

5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

18Z GFS and ensemble

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-2502400.thumb.png.142bb4525623b6c2e8d9a1fb98e21ab0.png

 

Notice how individual ensemble members show snow for you. Those are the things you need to look for this far in advance. When those members start to consolidate on a location, specifics start to come into focus. Until then, ANY one of those runs could be correct. 

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It is nice to see both ensembles showing something though, I don't mean to be a scrooge. 🙂 I just want to see more agreement between models and more run to run agreement before I start getting too excited. 

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It is nice to see both ensembles showing something though, I don't mean to be a scrooge. 🙂 I just want to see more agreement between models and more run to run agreement before I start getting too excited. 

So how do you really feel about it? Thinking it’s gonna be a total bust?

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It is nice to see both ensembles showing something though, I don't mean to be a scrooge. 🙂 I just want to see more agreement between models and more run to run agreement before I start getting too excited. 

This is the exact point that I'm not good enough at saying all the time. I enjoy analyzing modeled scenarios, and that can sometimes come across as confidence in them being right. As I said earlier, my overall confidence in this event has probably come down slightly because of the Euro suite backing off. My confidence is in the 10-20% range at this point. The potential setup is great for snow somewhere in the SE. With a strong cold HP to the north and a SE ridge below, that pinch point between those 2 features is hair trigger sensitive to any energy at all moving along the boundary. But that setup has to actually come to fruition, which is where my confidence drops because the models are still all over the place in that regard. 

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23 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

So how do you really feel about it? Thinking it’s gonna be a total bust?

No, I don't think (at this point) it will be a bust, but I still think it's low confidence at the moment. I "really" want to see more agreement between the GFS and Euro before jumping in with both feet. If it's the GFS, I have the left foot in, the Euro, the right. 🤣 It's kinda like the Hokey Pokey. 😁

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42 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

Notice how individual ensemble members show snow for you. Those are the things you need to look for this far in advance. When those members start to consolidate on a location, specifics start to come into focus. Until then, ANY one of those runs could be correct. 

Oh I know. I didn’t know if this was one of those CAD scenarios (which never play out this far west haha) or not! I’m still learning.

can one of you gentlemen explain to me the 850s? I know the 540 is the freeze line, but what exactly does the 850mb parameters measure?probably a dumb question that I should know already😂

Edited by LHarkins913

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