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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, February 14

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9 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Oh I know. I didn’t know if this was one of those CAD scenarios (which never play out this far west haha) or not! I’m still learning.

can one of you gentlemen explain to me the 850s? I know the 540 is the freeze line, but what exactly does the 850mb parameters measure?probably a dumb question that I should know already😂

850 mb is an important level for dendrite growth. Anything above freezing at 850, assuming it's below freezing further down, means sleet or freezing rain. "Generally" with temps below freezing at the 850 mb level, the precipitation will be snow. There are exceptions. 

Here's a rough guide to heights and the actual feet. Keep in mind as pressures change so goes the height in feet.

Snap346063777.png.6ccd928c672b19596cb587ae287349ff.png

Compare that to the current heights (in meters) right now over Atlanta

Snap346063778.png.fef52adcef02d1f43c74a0c0eac75639.png

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45 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

850 mb is an important level for dendrite growth. Anything above freezing at 850, assuming it's below freezing further down, means sleet or freezing rain. "Generally" with temps below freezing at the 850 mb level, the precipitation will be snow. There are exceptions. 

Here's a rough guide to heights and the actual feet. Keep in mind as pressures change so goes the height in feet.

Snap346063777.png.6ccd928c672b19596cb587ae287349ff.png

Compare that to the current heights (in meters) right now over Atlanta

Snap346063778.png.fef52adcef02d1f43c74a0c0eac75639.png

Thank you Steve, for always being willing to teach! 

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Noooo!  We’ll be out of town. This must can we push this back to Sunday, please?!?

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

GFS just caved to the Euro.... Still time to work it out, but that's a big blow. My confidence is now definitely below 10%.

Are you SnowDawg on Americanwx? 

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4 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Are you SnowDawg on Americanwx? 

Yeah. I spend less time on that site since this one started. Just tend to pop up when there's a threat around. 

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah. I spend less time on that site since this one started. Just tend to pop up when there's a threat around. 

I kinda had a feeling that was you....... I don’t see why you have a confidence below 10% when these models could easily change back to showing the goods

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3 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

I kinda had a feeling that was you....... I don’t see why you have a confidence below 10% when these models could easily change back to showing the goods

My confidence was never higher than 10-15% anyway because according to the ensembles there were still way too many solutions on the board. My confidence will go up or down based on how things play out as we go forward. To be fair, my confidence wouldn't be any higher than 20-30% even if everything looked perfect right now simply because it's too far out. 

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The last 2 good snows predicted rain with a possible spit of snow that won't stick to the ground.  Both ended up producing 4-12 inches of snow and a winter weather alert that popped  up as I am watching snow flakes the size of silver dollars coming down.  I say if it's meant to be it will come🙂❄️❄️.

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7 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah. I spend less time on that site since this one started. Just tend to pop up when there's a threat around. 

I use to hang out on AMX all the time, but the moderators (for the southeast) sucked and people started leaving. I was DaculaWeather. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I use to hang out on AMX all the time, but the moderators (for the southeast) sucked and people started leaving. I was DaculaWeather. 

You're more fun anyway. They tend to get a little too emotionally invested in their pet models and argue heatedly. I can watch people argue politics on one of the Dahlonega FB pages if I want that.

Speaking of my adopted hometown, I see at least one of the local forecasters (Dahlonega Weather) is beginning to pick up on this system, though he's taking care to caution everyone not to get carried away this early. I see a milk and bread shortage in our future, justified or otherwise.  😉

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2 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

Possible to “lose” the storm in the mid range like last weekend and then find it again? 

Definitely, and it actually happens quite a bit. Remains to be seen if we can get that lucky this time. 

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