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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, February 17

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2 minutes ago, JackFrost said:

What sort of time frame are we looking at? I wouldn’t mind having to leave work early here in Pickens 😆

Right now it's precip moving in after sunrise to 10 AM Thursday and then varying times on potential changeover there afterward depending on location and elevation. But again details like timing, R/S lines, precip amounts are very far from being determined. Still an extremely uncertain forecast. Climatology says borderline temp events favor the mountain counties. 

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I know a lot of details but new GEFS shows (about half of the ensembles) snow still lingering in NE Georgia Friday morning, Is there a chance this thing lasts that long?

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13 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Chattanooga Mets calling for snow Thursday morn for n ga and Chattanooga area

I have no doubt the top row of counties will see a little something, but how much is the bigger question.

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18 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

I know a lot of details but new GEFS shows (about half of the ensembles) snow still lingering in NE Georgia Friday morning, Is there a chance this thing lasts that long?

If the coastal develops then it's possible. But for now I think we should stay focused on the over running portion on Thursday since not all models are onboard with the coastal idea yet. 

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14 minutes ago, RickyD said:

They are showing blue ridge to dalton near two inches

I would be surprised if Dalton saw two inches the way are looking at the moment

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I would be surprised if Dalton saw two inches the way are looking at the moment

Would you be surprised if Dahlonega got 2 inches at this point?

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35 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Would you be surprised if Dahlonega got 2 inches at this point?

I would be surprised right now. Not to say it can't happen, but I still want to see more agreement.

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Do y’all see this as having the potential to be something for West Georgia up to Rome? Just wondering because I might stick around on campus to see some snow ❄️ 

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17 minutes ago, Tori said:

Do y’all see this as having the potential to be something for West Georgia up to Rome? Just wondering because I might stick around on campus to see some snow ❄️ 

It is very hard to say right now. It may take another day or two before we truly know. Now if the models all came into agreement tonight, it would be a different story, but that's probably too much to ask for. 🙂

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17 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It is very hard to say right now. It may take another day or two before we truly know. Now if the models all came into agreement tonight, it would be a different story, but that's probably too much to ask for. 🙂

Yeah, the 18z Euro didn’t help at all! Model madness!

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4 minutes ago, SNOW said:

Yeah, the 18z Euro didn’t help at all! Model madness!

I can't wait til we get into range of all the higher resolution guidance and maybe get a better feel for this. Even in a normal setup we're moving into a range where the globals are becoming less and less useful. In this setup they could quite literally be too course to pick up on a potentially very narrow band of frontogenesis. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I can't wait til we get into range of all the higher resolution guidance and maybe get a better feel for this. Even in a normal setup we're moving into a range where the globals are becoming less and less useful. In this setup they could quite literally be too course to pick up on a potentially very narrow band of frontogenesis. 

Yeah, a lot of moving pieces, I’m always concerned about cold air feed/arrival, that’s a stout high, but..

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2 minutes ago, SNOW said:

Yeah, a lot of moving pieces, I’m always concerned about cold air feed/arrival, that’s a stout high, but..

Yeah I think at this point it's becoming more likely that this is a borderline event as far as thermals go. Which means that the mountains are the only areas that are favored to see accumulating snow. There are still things that can happen to expand that to other areas but it is less likely at this point. Long ways to go still unfortunately. 

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NWS Update:

Quote

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SOME WINTRY MIX OF 
PRECIPITATION ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE 
THURSDAY
.

ECMWF CONTINUES TO END PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
BEFORE THE BETTER COLD AIR CATCHES UP. GFS SQUEEZES OUT LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH 
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING OR CHANGING-OVER BEFORE THE 
PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
. BOTH ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR 
MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD. MODEL BLEND LINGERS SOME 
PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MUCH DRIER 
AIRMASS MOVING IN, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MANAGES TO LINGER WOULD 
MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT AND RIGHT NOW LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS 
WOULD BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES/PEAKS OF THE NORTH 
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES. 
 

 

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