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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, February 18

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

GSP

 

Yeah that was their overnight discussion. They have been pretty tight lipped today and haven't updated the winter product suite which like you said, I don't blame them. It's going to take things getting inside 36 hours to hammer this out.  

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Obviously there are some trends on models like the GFS and NAM that are not great for us right now. But, I feel like they may be over amplifying the storm right now causing for increased warm air advection in the mid-levels. Meeting somewhere in the middle between them and the weakest models seems like a safe bet for now, which could actually be better for us despite less moisture. 

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New National Weather Service forecast for Sky Valley. They are saying 1-2” of snow now. 
 

20CDEA7A-8226-41C2-A679-49126CA7D64F.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

New National Weather Service forecast for Sky Valley. They are saying 1-2” of snow now. 
 

20CDEA7A-8226-41C2-A679-49126CA7D64F.jpeg

Good stuff! They knocked Tigers high forecast down from 44 to 37 on that update. Still only 0.1 snow accumulation on the grids though lol. Not that I disagree at this venture necessarily. Still a frustratingly undecided forecast at the moment.

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12 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Good stuff! They knocked Tigers high forecast down from 44 to 37 on that update. Still only 0.1 snow accumulation on the grids though lol. Not that I disagree at this venture necessarily. Still a frustratingly undecided forecast at the moment.

🙂 I still don't think most people will see much. Now... the higher elevations (above 3500 or so) will, but I'm just not sure about temps yet. Up where @Preston is in the NE corner is a little closer to a bullseye area, so they may get lucky. 

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27 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

How do thunderstorm chances look today?

Relax. It’s not gonna be bad 

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13 minutes ago, Andrew said:

The 18z 12K NAM would make me happy

3km looks a little better with mid level temps than 12km. Northern tier of counties are right on the dividing line right now. Could go either way. Still hoping to see the NAM relax a little over the next few cycles which might help us with the warm nose. 

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51 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Relax. It’s not gonna be bad 

I know, sorry, that was more a curious mind asking, not a worried one.

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Best run of the GFS yet for the NE corner. Looks to change to all snow sometime between 10am and 1pm which is right in time for the heart of the storm. Mid level temps look good from then on. It has the surface around 34 but experience tells me that if heavy snow is falling it will probably be just a bit closer to freezing. Regardless I've seen plenty of nice accumulating snows at 34 degrees. Even better because the roads aren't dangerous. 

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1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

King, Lumpkin county still on the cutoff line?

Right now from a forecast perspective, I'd say all of North GA outside of higher elevations is on the cutoff line, myself included.

But as for just that GFS run the majority of Lumpkin looked pretty good, but with an extremely tight gradient. It showed 4 inches or so on the north end and less than an inch at the southern tip of the county. But for now that's nothing more than a single model run, definitely not a forecast. 

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1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Still a chance we can trend colder?

Depends on what your baseline expectations are. 32-36 is the likely point of bottoming out in areas that are able to see a changeover to all snow. But surface temps are less important right now. Handling of the mid level warm air is key on actually getting that changeover. Very hard, sometimes downright impossible to accurately forecast. Only time will tell. 

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My go to local news station when it comes to weather has released a first call map. Of course these totals can and will change which they note. If NAM or GFS is right then they will go way up for NC Mtns. FB_IMG_1582065214810.thumb.jpg.4e1e69919c73f118d17a333ded222fdd.jpg

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The 18 z models are a little more generous but it's mostly the American models.The Euro/Icon/CMC aren't as on board as the NAM's and GFS are. 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2264800.thumb.png.bbad71c4958c184be7c8c9515f9acc35.png

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2264800.thumb.png.75298ccbb4c59fee68125f4b5f050b83.png

nam-218-all-se-total_snow_10to1-2243200.thumb.png.80097006963d7e19e7a7d0c9ddfeb5a1.png

sref-all-mean-se-total_snow_10to1-2351200.thumb.png.9fc0e2cc86067a866aa9de8f19fffd87.png

ecmwf-deterministic-georgia-total_snow_10to1-2545600.thumb.png.529758c655a70049f1ac29e395990716.png

 

 

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