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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, February 19

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10 minutes ago, Cay said:

We are looking to make a day trip from Murphy to Atlanta and back, tomorrow. Should we be concerned? 

Not worried, but cautious. Snow amounts increase as you get into the NC area around Murphy.

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

06z Euro (left) may be just a little heavier than the previous run, but not much.

Snap346063853.thumb.png.5d940237612d2389c6ea9f0cedead439.png

Loving the uptick in Greenville

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24 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Not worried, but cautious. Snow amounts increase as you get into the NC area around Murphy.

Thanks! 

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So do you think temps will possibly be cold enough to see snow, just not for it to stick? I think the temps in West GA are supposed to be 44/24. It’s either hit or miss for my area because of the freezing line set up

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3 minutes ago, Tori said:

So do you think temps will possibly be cold enough to see snow, just not for it to stick? I think the temps in West GA are supposed to be 44/24. It’s either hit or miss for my area because of the freezing line set up

Anyone south of the top two rows of counties is probably not going to see much if anything in my opinion. 

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For the TN mountains

Quote

Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains
where confidence in increasing for some impactful snow
accumulations on Thursday. Across mountain areas where
temperatures will be below freezing, total accumulations are
expected to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
above 4000 feet.

 

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2 hours ago, Cay said:

We are looking to make a day trip from Murphy to Atlanta and back, tomorrow. Should we be concerned? 

Cherokee-Clay-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Unicoi-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam,
Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville,
Tusquitee, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade,
Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico,
Coker Creek, Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, and Turtletown
1144 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 to 4
  inches. Locally higher amounts possible across the higher
  elevations above 4000 feet.

* WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee and Southwest North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means
  that periods of snow are expected which will primarily cause
  travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
  limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 

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3 hours ago, Preston said:

HRRR is looking like primarily a mountain event and very marginal temperatures there. An inch or higher is unfortunately probably going to be reserved for areas over 2,500-3,000'.

I would definitely agree with that as far as the accumulations probably being confined to the mountains. I would just caution use of the HRRR for anything but reflectivity based on how bad it was for the last snow. Even at just 4-5 hours out last time it was basically completely ignoring evaporative cooling, flipping parts of the mtn counties over to rain. As we know that wasn't even close to right, as snow made it all the way down to Athens. 

I think the lower elevations of the northern most mountain counties are probably going to have just a messy wintry mix for most of the day not amounting to much until the very end. And of course roads will be very icy Thursday night and Friday morning. It was a close call and fun to track. Here's to March bringing the big one lol. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Cherokee-Clay-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Unicoi-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam,
Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville,
Tusquitee, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade,
Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico,
Coker Creek, Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, and Turtletown
1144 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 to 4
  inches. Locally higher amounts possible across the higher
  elevations above 4000 feet.

* WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee and Southwest North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means
  that periods of snow are expected which will primarily cause
  travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
  limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 

Thanks. My husband is determined . We have a closing tomorrow in Conyers.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

I would definitely agree with that as far as the accumulations probably being confined to the mountains. I would just caution use of the HRRR for anything but reflectivity based on how bad it was for the last snow. Even at just 4-5 hours out last time it was basically completely ignoring evaporative cooling, flipping parts of the mtn counties over to rain. As we know that wasn't even close to right, as snow made it all the way down to Athens. 

I think the lower elevations of the northern most mountain counties are probably going to have just a messy wintry mix for most of the day not amounting to much until the very end. And of course roads will be very icy Thursday night and Friday morning. It was a close call and fun to track. Here's to March bringing the big one lol. 

Yep! it has been fun for the last few days. On to the next... maybe!

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Should I expect to see much of anything here in Towns? Some models show a few inches, some show nothing but a cold rain/snow mix all day. Even if it does snow, it seems as if the temps aren't going to go below freezing. 

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1 minute ago, Chase said:

Should I expect to see much of anything here in Towns? Some models show a few inches, some show nothing but a cold rain/snow mix all day. Even if it does snow, it seems as if the temps aren't going to go below freezing. 

Outside of the higher elevations I'd expect a messy slushy wintry mix for a big portion of the day, maybe some light accumulating snow in the late afternoon early evening. 

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So I decided to pour over some soundings to try and find what the main difference is on the snowier models vs the least snowy ones. Best I could tell the snowiest models (NAM 12k, Euro) work more dry air into the low/mid levels prior to the precip arriving leading to better wet bulbing conditions. Whereas on the others we remain near saturation therefore no room to bring down the temps in the low/mid levels. 

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