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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, February 19

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yep, as bad as it has been the last few days, I'm now cheering for the Euro lol

That brings me some more snow so I’m cheering for it now too

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I don't understand the Euro and snow.

Here's the first 3 hour period where the Euro is showing a good patch of snow and this is 1 PM Thursday

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype_3hr-2221600.thumb.png.7af78e2fd2acda9ab10429072f63ee38.png

 

These are the temperatures, note nowhere is it below freezing "except" maybe at the highest elevations.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-2221600.thumb.png.6d8840993c3d190c67cfccae6d8d4691.png

 

The dewpoint depressions are nonexistent, so no help there.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-dpt_dep-2221600.thumb.png.8f45eff4cb7766fa476489250374aefd.png

 

925 mb temps for the most part are above freezing except for a few areas.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t925-2221600.thumb.png.8bd5458b0c876b1aa7cae4a4b085d05e.png

 

850's aren't much better, and 1C below freezing is generally not enough cold to make a flake. 

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t850-2221600.thumb.png.27c2ce2f7252dc3f45ea3248ce3c3198.png

 

So why is the Euro showing this for 3 hour snow totals?

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-snow_3hr_10to1-2221600.thumb.png.7ee365a7139df7b859a8e02ee9b51fa4.png

 

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Winter Weather Advisory just issued for the mountain counties under the NWS Atlanta office. 

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5 minutes ago, Preston said:

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for the mountain counties under the NWS Atlanta office. 

What they're calling for would be bad if it happened. Freezing rain followed by snow. Yikes.

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Snap346063856.png.c200daf90650703644743d09ecb06c78.png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

GAZ006>009-013>016-201000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.200220T1000Z-200221T0600Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND
200 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
  AND RAIN AND FINALLY TO ALL SNOW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
  A TENTH OF AN INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH 
  EXCEPT UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* WHERE...NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
  MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WHEN...FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE. FREEZING
  RAIN FOLLOWED BY SNOW CAN CREATE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. 

-----------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

GAZ001>005-011-012-201000-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-
217 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE THURSDAY MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND TRACK OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN INITIALLY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
10AM AND NOON, A TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS 
POSSIBLE. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS MIXTURE COULD BRIEFLY 
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT UP TO AN INCH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY MOISTURE THAT REMAINS ON THE ROADWAYS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL RESULT IN BLACK ICE WHICH COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

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48 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

What they're calling for would be bad if it happened. Freezing rain followed by snow. Yikes.

I don't think it would too bad. If surfaces were colder and the freezing rain caused road issues first and then snow, then yes that could be bad. However, surface temps have been so warm any freezing rain would be limited to elevated surfaces like trees and probably metal surfaces and even then, it is very light amounts. The only road issues I could imagine are high elevation roads that get heavy snow rates. Area wide could deal with some black ice Friday morning though. 

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Honestly the 18z HRRR is giving me a little hope. It is much better at 850 and the warm nose is much less pronounced. It's still doing what the HRRR does and is warming the lower levels despite of it not really being physically possible without a stout warm surface wind, which we will not have. Heavy precip falling through - 2/-3 850s will not let the 925s and surface suddenly warm during the storm, it tried to show the same thing just last weekend. Also if you look at just its simulated reflectivity, not its guesses at ptype with lower level temps we know are wrong, it looks a bit different. floop-hrrr-2020021918.ref1km.us_ma.gif.801bbb4ded59476a37c2a57aad548bba.gif

That bright banding is usually evidence of melting snow flakes and indicates the rain/snow line. My expectations are very low, but I still think there is fairly high bust potential in both directions. 

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GSP for Rabun and Habersham

Snap346063857.png.4c03ef3789da988f95c101fd86aa08b0.png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...

.MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH INTO A COLD AIRMASS ON THURSDAY
WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN, SNOW, AND SLEET,
BUT SHOULD STEADILY TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
200500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.200220T1000Z-200221T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLAYTON, PINE MOUNTAIN, MOUNTAIN CITY, 
CORNELIA, DEMOREST, CLARKESVILLE, HOLLYWOOD, INGALLS, BANNER ELK,
NEWLAND, FAUST, MARS HILL, MARSHALL, WALNUT, ALLENSTAND, 
HOT SPRINGS, LUCK, SWISS, BURNSVILLE, CELO, MICAVILLE, 
RAMSEYTOWN, BUSICK, SPRUCE PINE, POPLAR, ALARKA, ALMOND, 
BRYSON CITY, LUADA, WESSER, WAYNESVILLE, WATERVILLE, CANTON, 
CRUSO, COVE CREEK, ASHEVILLE, ROBBINSVILLE, STECOAH, CULLOWHEE, 
TUCKASEGEE, SYLVA, FRANKLIN, RAINBOW SPRINGS, KYLE, HIGHLANDS, 
WOLF MOUNTAIN, CASHIERS, BREVARD, CEDAR MOUNTAIN, LITTLE RIVER, 
HENDERSONVILLE, FLETCHER, DANA, EAST FLAT ROCK, TUXEDO, ETOWAH, 
PATTERSON, JONAS RIDGE, ASHFORD, SUGAR HILL, WOODLAWN, OLD FORT, 
CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK, AND SALUDA
311 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 3 INCHES,
  WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH TOTALS ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES.

* WHERE...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* WHEN...FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ALTHOUGH ROADS WILL INITIALLY BE WARM AND WET, PLAN ON
  SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
  THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
  THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE STORM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. 

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National Weather Service has upped Sky Valley to 3-5” now. This would meet Winter Storm Warning criteria if it verified. 

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They already canceled school for up here tomorrow at 3:30

There appears to be a split forming among short term guidance with regards to temps in the 800-900 mbar layer. Differences as big as 5 degrees between the HRRR/WRF/RAP and the NAM/RGEM. Looks like it will come down to now-casting. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

They already canceled school for up here tomorrow at 3:30

There appears to be a split forming among short term guidance with regards to temps in the 800-900 mbar layer. Differences as big as 5 degrees between the HRRR/WRF/RAP and the NAM/RGEM. Looks like it will come down to now-casting. 

Yea, it can go either way. 

 

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I live in Habersham, but work in Franklin NC. I drive early in the morning so I’m watching this extremely close. I do have a question for you. I’m a huge snow lover, so would love to see it. However, I’m just not feeling it this time. In your opinion, the advisory that has been issued for Habersham and Rabun, do you feel that’s it’s just more to be on the side of caution, since the last storm overproduced? I know that more than likely this will come down to the minute it arrives, I just don’t have much confidence in it.

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5 minutes ago, Bcshart311 said:

I live in Habersham, but work in Franklin NC. I drive early in the morning so I’m watching this extremely close. I do have a question for you. I’m a huge snow lover, so would love to see it. However, I’m just not feeling it this time. In your opinion, the advisory that has been issued for Habersham and Rabun, do you feel that’s it’s just more to be on the side of caution, since the last storm overproduced? I know that more than likely this will come down to the minute it arrives, I just don’t have much confidence in it.

I would say that for now it was probably just to be cautious for Habersham, because the gradient will be so tight it could be nothing or could easily be something more impactful. As for Rabun I think because of the elevation an advisory level nuisance event is fairly likely at the minimum. 

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1 hour ago, Bcshart311 said:

I live in Habersham, but work in Franklin NC. I drive early in the morning so I’m watching this extremely close. I do have a question for you. I’m a huge snow lover, so would love to see it. However, I’m just not feeling it this time. In your opinion, the advisory that has been issued for Habersham and Rabun, do you feel that’s it’s just more to be on the side of caution, since the last storm overproduced? I know that more than likely this will come down to the minute it arrives, I just don’t have much confidence in it.

Agree with Chuck. Franklin and that area may end up being a mess tomorrow.

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This is a tough one, they don't get much more marginal than this system. You could end up with nothing or you end up with 2"+.  We won't really know until the flag drops tomorrow. 

Here is our moisture. 

Snap346063872.thumb.png.d40ba4cb12895efe6718edb4ef1672e3.png

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6 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

From Dahlonega, what would be the best drive to see some good snow tomorrow?

Due north into NC. Here's where the WPC has a bullseye.

Snap346063873.png.9be4b08f8998f0edf61ec5b198cf81b0.png

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