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NorthGeorgiaWX

Sunday, February 23

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Happy Birthday!! Thank you for always giving me a dependable weather forecast! Wishing for one more snow to go out with a bang!!

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4 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Happy birthday!!

 

3 hours ago, Bcshart311 said:

Happy Birthday!! Thank you for always giving me a dependable weather forecast! Wishing for one more snow to go out with a bang!!

 

2 hours ago, momto2auties said:

Happy Birthday Steve!  Hope it's the best one yet!

Thanks guys! 🙂

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26 minutes ago, Tori said:

52 and rain/sleet mix in Haralson county. 

That would be pretty odd. Graupel maybe, but I'd have to see a picture.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That would be pretty odd. Graupel maybe, but I'd have to see a picture.

I have a video that I put in the comments on your Facebook radar post. It wouldn’t let me do it here

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Just now, Tori said:

I have a video that I put in the comments on your Facebook radar post. It wouldn’t let me do it here

I'll go look. It must be larger than what I have people setup to do. I did look at the upper air temps and the freezing level is pretty high up (above 700 mb) so I'm not sure. 

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54 minutes ago, Tori said:

52 and rain/sleet mix in Haralson county. 

Thanks for sharing that, I'm going to let the NWS look at it, looks like sleet. 

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9 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good morning!

Today will be a transition day as the sun goes back behind the clouds and the rain returns.  The bigger picture this morning shows the rain off to our west while moisture at the higher levels starts streaming in. 

Snap346063945.thumb.png.ee76eab2dde71dde6779a1b11130b699.png

 

There is a chance that some may see a little rain today, but generally the rain will hold off until the early morning hours on Monday. The first image is rainfall through 7 PM Monday and the second image goes through 7 AM Thursday. 

ndfd-conus-georgia-precip_6hr_inch-2588800.thumb.png.f3aa8031718e28c2a21aba3e171bae79.png

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-2804800.thumb.png.111eb8194f520e9b421ddfc870be9abb.png

 

Snow. The other four letter word. 🙂 

The models are still showing some potential for some very light snow/flurries across the top tier of counties in Georgia, and the resulting snow would be similar to the last event, maybe a little less as there just isn't a lot of moisture to work with.

NOT A FORECAST
gfs-deterministic-georgia-total_snow_10to1-2869600.thumb.png.e975cb5fea4e966501db42e3250b8de9.png

ecmwf-deterministic-georgia-total_snow_10to1-2869600.thumb.png.562eff7489db19668d243536249ac1a5.png

gem-all-georgia-total_snow_10to1-2999200.thumb.png.542c522c28d4f96c88f7df6cca0591f8.png

 

I'll be keeping an eye on it in case there are some slight changes but I wouldn't expect anything big. The low responsible for the weather will be passing to our west, so our only hope is wrap around moisture as the low departs, and that never works out too well for us here. Snow is in the grids as far south as my house in Gwinnett, so we'll see how it goes. 

Snap346063946.png.eff5a5d0c21565684d2742450a7e0716.png

 

We will be getting colder though. Temperature anomalies go from this on Tuesday morning...
ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-2632000.thumb.png.fa49e7bcaf7769a3d626bc41b3701191.png

To this on Thursday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-2804800.thumb.png.690e57009b23e90762ac51ba60e6d91e.png

 

Thursday AMecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-2804800.thumb.png.690e57009b23e90762ac51ba60e6d91e.png

 

Friday AMecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-2891200.thumb.png.262784b69b32967ced48bc105ba7ef0d.png

 

Saturday AMecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-2999200.thumb.png.be3bc4a6c11eda6b73225e1b57ed1c29.png

 

Sunday AMecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-3064000.thumb.png.b15e0c4a1afe48eafd3c3df2433cb34d.png

 

On Monday, Florida looks like s sore thumb with temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-3150400.thumb.png.093e1b7c5355ab2cb4d2dd9b8b38d353.png

 

So get out and enjoy what's left of the sunshine, it won't be around for long today and you probably won't see it again until next Thursday and Friday! I hope everyone has a great Sunday!  I will be celebrating another year on this planet and another lap around the sun today, and I am truly blessed to be doing this for you. Thank you for following me while I journey through this life! 😇  🎂 

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mrx-23.png.0ba843bc903c148781b37b37df42154e.png

bmx-23.png.f98827c865232d5df88bf66ed0e0c18c.png

 

Happy Birthday! We are grateful to join you in this journey around the sun! 

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It appears there might be 3 chances for very light snow coming up. Approximately Thursday, Saturday, and Monday. Some may just pass to the north. 

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2 hours ago, Tori said:

52 and rain/sleet mix in Haralson county. 

Got your answer. Thanks to your video, the NWS  made this statement.

Quote

getting reports of ice pellets in the east metro with surface temps of 50-55 degrees.  Video sent to us confirms.   We did some investigating and its sleet based on the temperature profiles.  Cloud base is 8000 feet and around -1C so its falling as very light snow, then melting shortly after leaving the cloud as temps warm.  The air below the cloud base is very dry and wetbulb temps in a 5500 foot layer from 7500ft down to 2000ft is below freezing, so while the air temp in that layer is above freezing, the liquid drop is small enough to refreeze based on evaporative cooling processes.  Pretty rare to see this type of thing happen but obviously not impossible.

Thank you for sharing that video. 🙂 

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38 minutes ago, AlKhamsa said:

I'm late to the party, but Happy Birthday! Thanks for all your hard work keeping us informed! 

Thanks Molly! 

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Updated 2019-2020 seasonal snowfall totals at NWS Eastern Region climate sites as of Sunday February 23rd. Several locations are on pace for bottom 10 (lowest) snowfall totals. These rankings are for snow through February 23rd only, not comparisons to full/final seasonal totals.

87282688_2736440893100725_2941240359314784256_o.thumb.png.401fd7ae2328c4d17f98a100efab81c7.png

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Updated 2019-2020 seasonal snowfall totals at NWS Eastern Region climate sites as of Sunday February 23rd. Several locations are on pace for bottom 10 (lowest) snowfall totals. These rankings are for snow through February 23rd only, not comparisons to full/final seasonal totals.

87282688_2736440893100725_2941240359314784256_o.thumb.png.401fd7ae2328c4d17f98a100efab81c7.png

I have been a bit disappointed with our winter so far in Sky Valley, but we have had 10.6" on the winter so far. When you look at it from the standpoint we have over twice the amount that NYC has, that makes it a bit easier to deal with. It's amazing to me as a weather the nerd the difference elevation makes. The totals below are from my house at 3,406' of elevation. 

December 2nd: Trace

January 4th: 0.4”

January 25th: 0.1”

January 31st: 1.3”

February 7th: 0.1”

February 8th: 5.6”

February 20th: 3.1”             Season Total: 10.6"

 

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9 hours ago, Preston said:

I have been a bit disappointed with our winter so far in Sky Valley, but we have had 10.6" on the winter so far. When you look at it from the standpoint we have over twice the amount that NYC has, that makes it a bit easier to deal with. It's amazing to me as a weather the nerd the difference elevation makes. The totals below are from my house at 3,406' of elevation. 

December 2nd: Trace

January 4th: 0.4”

January 25th: 0.1”

January 31st: 1.3”

February 7th: 0.1”

February 8th: 5.6”

February 20th: 3.1”             Season Total: 10.6"

 

Yes, elevation does matter. You figure anywhere from 3.5-5 degrees per 1000 feet, and you can see that those systems where temps are borderline for some down lower are just fine for you. If I could have found a house at 4000 feet or higher I would have. 🙂 Several years ago I was looking at the highest buildable piece of property east of the Rockies. It was in NC and the Blue Ridge Parkway was down below it. The elevation was a little over 6000 feet and it was 8 acres. And it only cost a little over $300k. I'm sure that the cost to build a house there had to be crazy though. 

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The environmental lapse rate is 3.56 degrees/1000, the dry adiabatic lapse rate is 5.4 degrees/1000, and the saturated adiabatic lapse rate is 2.7 degrees/1000. Aviators use approximately 3 degrees per 1000. All units are in Fahrenheit and feet. The key here is which lapse rate is best for your purposes, and I don't have that answer.

Just a quick tip to convert Celsius to Fahrenheit for temps above freezing: Double and add 30. Example: 15*2+30=60. Fifteen Celsius is 59 Fahrenheit-only one degree off.

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