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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, February 24

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Good morning! 

As you have probably noticed, the rain has returned this morning. I know... you're most favorite thing right now. 😛

Snap346063952.thumb.png.988dcdea37adc963a6654ed8640c7fd9.png

 

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In the meantime...
a strong upper low will move across the mid MS Valley today into the
OH Valley overnight. This will bring a surface cold front into north
GA late tonight. Some weak CAPE develops over the area ahead of the
front...and as the warm front drifts northward. A slight chance of
thunder is mentioned for tonight into Tuesday morning. Models are
consistent with showing the cold front drifting into northwest GA
and then stalling across central GA by Tuesday afternoon. Some
drying is indicated for late tonight into Tuesday for areas
generally north of Columbus to Athens.
Temperatures will be on a
warming trend through Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts through
Tuesday afternoon should range from around 1.00 to 1.50 inches.

 

WPC rainfall through tuesday 7 PM

wpc-se-total_precip_inch-2675200.thumb.png.f5422b10b2d68d4ccc8118635f56d3a4.png

 

But winter is not over just yet, and there are several chances, minor as they may be, for some winter precipitation across the north Georgia mountains.

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Medium-range models continue to push
the better chances for precipitation north and east of the area late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the colder air mass sweeps
into the state. Should still see some lingering precipitation in the
north, especially the far northeast, for some wintry mix or change
over to snow before the precipitation ends late Wednesday night.

Available moisture still looks somewhat limited and little or no
accumulation is expected outside of the highest elevations of the
north Georgia mountains.
Dry and cold Thursday through Friday.

Another short wave digs into the region Friday night into Saturday.
Still a good bit of difference concerning the strength/path of this
system.
GFS is deeper/sharper and further west with the system
digging it through Alabama while the ECMWF is quicker/shallower and
sweeps the main short wave energy into the Carolinas. Still, merits
at least a mention of slight chance for rain/snow across much of the
forecast area.

 

As usual, the GFS and Canadian show more snow and the Euro less. This situation will not be much different than the other two as we're counting on wrap around moisture to bring the snow. And again, the snow will be confined to the higher elevations of the mountains. 

These are the GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles through Sunday.

NOT A FORECAST
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.40e0ffeb013c8d512be2bc1b5c9c06f7.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.88a4610821cb108e2b52c7ea86f3c1f8.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.5fdd692859d935bbbfb6935cb0045e4e.png

 

We going to keep watching both systems, we are still days away, especially for the weekend version, so there will be changes. It will be getting much cooler though, and from Thursday through Monday, we'll see temperatures well below normal. The three major models in principle. 

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_f_anom-1582502400-1582502400-1583107200-80.thumb.gif.801437affdd1519c954139394c5f0574.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_f_anom-1582502400-1582502400-1583107200-80.thumb.gif.c5886444f1c7261812cd594f4e3a2aa1.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_f_anom-1582502400-1582502400-1583107200-80.thumb.gif.683ae9f2d1966bcbeef34d21f1efc1f3.gif

 

So rain today and tomorrow, then drying out and cooling off with several minor chances of winter precip for the far north. I know this rain makes you feel right at home. 🙂

Have a great Monday!

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mrx-24.png.269b04819aabb713c3fd9713253c3405.png

bmx-24.png.e678e749867de6b7d980a97f5624527f.png

 

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I don't understand how they come up with this map. Be sure to follow credible sources. LOL!

ERiur4dWkAESxPj.thumb.jpg.4622b95b211d1a61dbdedb6b7e597100.jpg

 

This is the "official" forecast through 7 am tomorrow. 

ndfd-conus-atlanta-total_precip_inch-2632000.thumb.png.88a0c50710977eea50a5ec9f7ec3cc4e.png

 

This is the WPC forecast (also official) through 7 AM

wpc-atlanta-total_precip_inch-2632000.thumb.png.e6bc47cb0c2fef6a1587f5eb965a44ca.png

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Their data is based on the RPM model that many TV stations use. The RPM is derived from the WRF-ARW model. This is the output of the WRF and you can see it is lower than the RPM output. 

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-atlanta-total_precip_inch-2632000.thumb.png.c0e77818fb194a93992e76c2d9f3338d.png

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4 hours ago, WDN4 said:

Channel 2 mentioned possible snow on Saturday.  Thoughts?

Yes, that is the time I''m looking at, and the snow in the images above pretty much all falls then.

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Here's what it looked like from the 44th floor of the Peachtree Towers today. There were times when you couldn't see much of anything at all. This Westin Peachtree Plaza is to the left (can't see it in this view) of this building and straight down below is Hard Rock Cafe.

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I've got to say... I'm starting to get a little fired up about the snow potential for Saturday. The models are bringing more snow and to places further south, they definitely have my interest now.  Let's see how the models do over the next 24 hours. 

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.2c3f5f50b33b6ac243d2da22bac6f694.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.74d96127f40310768a85e0163a9fe72f.png

gem-all-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-3020800.thumb.png.69f2c5f1d3c3cdc223d7b07b1ee13129.png

 

And the ensembles

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-3064000.thumb.png.5151bb5e2b45c35c06a09bc7c7abe8da.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-3064000.thumb.png.a14eeade12054058cbaa8531f8a988be.png

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8 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Oh hey GFS, way to join the party.... 

 

not getting excited.. YET... 😝

This is probably the best look from the models I've think I've seen this winter. Again, we're still several days away before we know for sure, but it will be fun to watch regardless.

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NWS Atlanta Update:

Quote

A vorticity lobe will dive across the Southeast on Thursday night
into Friday morning, but the greatest moisture currently looks to
remain north of Georgia, across the Ohio River Valley. The ECMWF and
GFS agree that the trough across the eastern U.S. will deepen on
Saturday, but they disagree on its progression and the amount of
moisture accompanying it. Have included a slight chance for a rain-
snow mix and/or snow showers on Friday night into Saturday, given
temperatures across much of north Georgia expected to be at or
below freezing, in addition to upper-level forcing and moisture.

 

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Don't be mad, but I'm going to try to pray this away.  My college student has no experience driving in snow and that's when he'll be on the road.  (Murphy's law as it pertains to weather says that this will now be a blizzard.)🤪

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Here is a look at the GFs and Euro 500 mb vorticity. You'll see two systems in both loops, one for Thursday and one for Saturday, right now the one for Saturday appears to be the better chance of the two.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1582545600-1582545600-1583020800-80.thumb.gif.5bf53dc09de67d82285e13d07d498ca2.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1582545600-1582545600-1583020800-80.thumb.gif.8abb9cd795a06913fef17f43eab79d9c.gif

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I will admit to not having paid much attention to this, is it trending in any way right now? I wrote it off early thinking the trough would be centered too far east to allow much moisture at all into the system. Thought we'd be lucky to squeeze out a tenth of an inch liquid with Saturday. 

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I will admit to not having paid much attention to this, is it trending in any way right now? I wrote it off early thinking the trough would be centered too far east to allow much moisture at all into the system. Thought we'd be lucky to squeeze out a tenth of an inch liquid with Saturday. 

I was pretty surprised at the models today. Now I see the TV stations have jumped all over it. 🙂 Must be a trend. 🙂 

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