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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, February 27

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Good morning!

How about that flizzard. 🙂 Ooooooo ahhhhhhhh. There are a few flurries floating around in the high winds, but most of the snow that is falling is in Tennessee this morning.

Snap346063980.thumb.png.b6365dd659f8db2f64d85bf340ea660c.png

 

It is windy and it is cold, and it will not get much warmer today. These are the forecast highs

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f-2837200.thumb.png.d3ea99252942774fe714d4c37fe066c4.png

 

Well... we get one more chance at snow, who knows, it could be our last chance for this winter. 

Quote

The long term period starts on Friday evening with a long wave
trough traversing across the east coast. Northwesterly flow aloft
with minor shortwave perturbations at the base of the trough will
bring a chance of wintry precipitation to the northern parts of the
CWA, ending on Saturday morning. With lighter QPF guidance amounts,
snow accumulations should be limited to the north Georgia mountains
and should remain less than an inch, with locally higher amounts at
the higher elevations. There is also the potential for patchy black
ice across portions of far northern Georgia where any rain/snow that
does fall may freeze overnight.

 

The models believe this system will be a little bit stronger than this last one,  and that shows up in the snow maps.

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-snow_24hr-2966800.thumb.png.ca951c36813287b01b138dd60420a447.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-snow_24hr-2966800.thumb.png.f6ca3b6f0d32e0078cb27f9bb71cd76e.png

gem-all-atlanta-snow_24hr-2966800.thumb.png.77c58d1be78814adf4d0de9d1be2b79e.png

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-snow_24hr-2966800.thumb.png.1156864c25d7c2eaa56fd38318c06343.png

And the ensembles

1821340638_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_24hr-2956000(1).thumb.png.a2a55a459449b01f8929cc2e896d9e2f.png1654255728_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_24hr-2956000(1).thumb.png.ffdd8bb0e0cdd4c56db87557b962d84d.png

 

I would use the North Georgia Winter Weather Correction Factor and pick the one with the lowest values. 🙂 Whatever falls will be light, so I don't want anyone to think that this will be a decent event. These are the WPC probabilities for >=1" of snow.

Snap346063985.png.e2521cecdac5caa7b09c8bfdfd8873a7.png

 

The good news is that you will see some sunshine for the next 3 days or so! AND... temperatures will be warming up as we start the month. 🙂 

I hope everyone has a great day!

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We have a dusting in Sky Valley, a little bit lighter than what it currently showing up on the Highlands webcam but the secondary roads look similar to this. School is on schedule thankfully though, we don't need anymore snow days says the teacher. It was 22 and still flurrying when I left the house. 

https://www.highlandschamber.org/about/webcams/

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29 minutes ago, Preston said:

We have a dusting in Sky Valley, a little bit lighter than what it currently showing up on the Highlands webcam but the secondary roads look similar to this. School is on schedule thankfully though, we don't need anymore snow days says the teacher. It was 22 and still flurrying when I left the house. 

https://www.highlandschamber.org/about/webcams/

Love the view of the mountains. 

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Just a bit of snow stuck here this morning, not sure I'd even call it a dusting though lol.

With the way the winds were here, I'm sure the Smokies area was in blizzard conditions most of the night. 

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25 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Just a bit of snow stuck here this morning, not sure I'd even call it a dusting though lol.

With the way the winds were here, I'm sure the Smokies area was in blizzard conditions most of the night. 

I agree, I could hear the wind howling all night in Dahlonega. 

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Some afternoon updates. The models are showing a bulls eye of snow around the Blairsville area for tomorrow into Saturday AM. 

NOT A FORECAST

The ensembles are in two camps, the GFS/CMC (Canadian) and the Euro EPS/SREF

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-2804800.thumb.png.35089b52eeca7389d8db8fb352193912.png

cmc-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-2761600.thumb.png.e83fc0ba95440113c8f0eb3b448d3771.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-2783200.thumb.png.668d910f4de5cd90ec2b114044188f77.png

sref-all-KDZJ-total_snow_sref-2794000.thumb.png.6ebf353822e051c7637d81351c6c0beb.png

 

It appears possible for Blairsville to see 1-2" according to the ensembles. 

The deterministic models are trending like this, and again, these are not a forecast.

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2977600.thumb.png.c0ca2397113bce3bf9d0294049a4315c.png

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2977600.thumb.png.217de6371113bce082c5b310c077c65b.png

gem-all-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2977600.thumb.png.05ce894cbe3c87724502ec76468059d7.png

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2977600.thumb.png.d8568a044e0bd78150a03ffa37f6924e.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2977600.thumb.png.6508343b24235b6d1362ab31d8962451.png

Elevation matters, so those higher elevations are more likely to see the higher amounts than those in the lower elevations. Temperatures will vary and this may be a 12 hour event. The models are showing a start time as early as 7 am for some and some show it ending as late as early Saturday morning. It could go from snow to rain to snow from time to time depending on locations. I'll keep watching through this evening and we should know more specifics by then. 🙂 

 

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At this point, I'm thinking Spring should just come on ahead and get here.  If I can't be all giddy about snowy stuff, I'd rather get out and work in the yard!

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

GAZ001>005-011>016-280745-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-
Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
242 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF NORTH GEORGIA...

Light rain may mix with or change to light snow after sunrise on
Friday morning. Temperatures at 7 AM are expected to be in the
lower 30s before slowly rising to the upper 30s by late morning.
No accumulations are expected but very light accumulations may be
possible at elevations above 2000 feet.

Light rain may change back to light snow Friday night before
midnight. Again no accumulations are expected. Any snow should
taper off by sunrise Saturday morning with temperatures falling to
30 to 32 before rising above freezing by 9 AM.
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GSP

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-


Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...
Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches,
  with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches.

* WHERE...
Mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...
From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...
Travel could be very difficult, especailly Friday
  night. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
Highest snowfall accumulations will be in
  the Smokies, at elevations 3500 feet and higher, and along the
  North Carolina/Tennessee border.

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Two different SPS

-----------------------------

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

GAZ001>005-011>016-280745-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-
Dawson-Lumpkin-White-

242 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA...

Light rain may mix with or change to light snow after sunrise on
Friday morning. Temperatures at 7 AM are expected to be in the
lower 30s before slowly rising to the upper 30s by late morning.
No accumulations are expected but very light accumulations may be
possible at elevations above 2000 feet.

Light rain may change back to light snow Friday night before
midnight. Again no accumulations are expected. Any snow should
taper off by sunrise Saturday morning with temperatures falling to
30 to 32 before rising above freezing by 9 AM.

$$
-------------------------------------------
GAZ006>009-280745-
Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
242 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...UP TO ONE-HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE MELTING...

A round of light snow is likely move into northeast Georgia just
after sunrise on Friday. Temperatures at 7 AM are expected to
range from 29 to 32 degrees before slowly rising to 35 to 39
degrees at noon. Even though the snow should mix with or change to
rain by late morning, there could be some accumulation up to one-
half inch, mainly on grassy surfaces. At elevations above 2000
feet, accumulations may reach an inch before melting.

Light rain will likely change back to light snow Friday night
after 9 PM with another chance for minor snow accumulations, less
than one-half inch. The snow should taper off by sunrise Saturday
morning with temperatures falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s
before rising above freezing by 10 AM.

Snap346063997.png

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MRX

Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Monroe-Wise-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek,
Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise,
Coeburn, Appalachia, and Pardee
305 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...
Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
  above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts are possible in the
  highest peaks.

* WHERE...
Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia
  elevations above 2500 feet.

* WHEN...
From 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...
Travel may be difficult due to snow covered roads and
  reduced visibility especially over the higher elevations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
Wind chill values will dip to between 0 and
  10 degrees above at times tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
The first concern is a short wave forecast to move across north GA
Friday with decent moisture moving across the far northern counties
where a rather cold airmass will be in place. This will give potential
for mainly light amounts of accumulating snow favoring the far northeast
counties for snow accumulations. The models are struggling with the
timing of this wave and it's moisture so the overall confidence is
low. The thinking is temperatures will warm just enough that any snow
in the afternoon over north GA will be limited to the highest elevations.

Overall amounts look to be around 1/2 inch or less but maybe up to an
inch at the highest elevations.

The next concern will be a second wave for Friday night bringing another
round of rain/snow chances to the area. The models are struggling
with the strength of this wave and therefore the precipitation chances.
The best snow chances will favor the NE Mountains where 1/2 to 1 inch
could be possible at the highest elevations and generally less elsewhere
over the NE counties.

A brief mix will be possible over portions of the ATL metro area before
ending Friday night.

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

A bunch of winter weather events happened on this date. 

Snap346063999.png.2454788c74adf7e7bef27394bb1e256b.png

Snap346064000.png.92b2cfedf435cf981c204ffcc96ecad0.png

Snap346063998.png.768c59a645213bac19131ec51e75a44b.png

Any other details on this event in Lumpkin County? Just seems weird, was it rain that just switched to heavy snow in a confined area? Seems unusual if that is the case, but that area wouldn't usually be impacted by any sort of convective snow shower development of that magnitude. 

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1 hour ago, Preston said:

Any other details on this event in Lumpkin County? Just seems weird, was it rain that just switched to heavy snow in a confined area? Seems unusual if that is the case, but that area wouldn't usually be impacted by any sort of convective snow shower development of that magnitude. 

Good question. I copied and pasted from them, so .... don't know.

 

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