Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

1. What does PDS mean?

2. Will the system be weaker when it gets here?/Do the severe chances lower?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

1. What does PDS mean?

2. Will the system be weaker when it gets here?/Do the severe chances lower?

  1. PDS means "Particularly Dangerous Situation" and is reserved for strong to very strong tornadoes
  2. It should weaken approaching your area, but could still have strong thunderstorms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:
  1. PDS means "Particularly Dangerous Situation" and is reserved for strong to very strong tornadoes
  2. It should weaken approaching your area, but could still have strong thunderstorms.

Strong Thunderstorms are better than Severe, Tornado making ones, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Boy, Steve, I picked a hell of a time to watch the webinar on storm spotting you recommended yesterday...LOL

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Tanith said:

Boy, Steve, I picked a hell of a time to watch the webinar on storm spotting you recommended yesterday...LOL

You are better prepared. 🙂 Except for the fact you can't see squat at night. Storm chasers also don't like chasing where there are lots of trees, they block the view. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Areas affected...northern AL...southern TN...northwestern GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

   Valid 250005Z - 250100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

   SUMMARY...A new convective watch is possible to the east of Tornado
   Watch #61.  A tornado risk will continue this evening for portions
   of northern AL and southern middle TN.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD show further intensification of the
   low-level wind profile during the past 1-2 hours.  0-1 km SRH has
   increased from around 300 m2/s2 to over 600 m2/s2.  Surface analysis
   indicates the area with the lowest temperature/dewpoint spreads (10
   deg F) is in the counties adjacent to the TN border in northern AL. 
   Farther south, warmer temperatures have resulted in spreads in the
   15-20 deg F range which would lessen but not nullify tornado
   potential.  Given the strengthening low-level shear for mesocyclone
   organization/persistence, it seems plausible the tornado risk will
   eventually include the eastern counties of Tornado Watch #61 later
   this evening.  An additional convective watch issuance is possible
   to the east of the ongoing watch during the next hour or so.

mcd0230.gif.0a43b6f5b893472af618496bd01c4c47.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

You are better prepared. 🙂 Except for the fact you can't see squat at night. Storm chasers also don't like chasing where there are lots of trees, they block the view. 

Oh, I have no intention of taking up chasing, to me that's utter insanity. But I imagine I can still learn a lot from it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I am now starting to worry a bit...

Don't. it accomplishes nothing. Nothing to fear.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Don't. it accomplishes nothing. Nothing to fear.  

Sorry, just saw Dawson included in that orange outline for counties potentially included if they do a new tornado watch...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Sorry, just saw Dawson included in that orange outline for counties potentially included if they do a new tornado watch...

The watch would most likely be a convective watch... ie a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The watch would most likely be a convective watch... ie a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Welp, that proves that I still don't understand all the terms... lol

But still, worrying is just a habit of mine... Should I sleep easy tonight, or be ready to wake up at a moment's notice?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Asperman1 said:

Welp, that proves that I still don't understand all the terms... lol

But still, worrying is just a habit of mine... Should I sleep easy tonight, or be ready to wake up at a moment's notice?

As long as you have a way to be alerted, sleep well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

As long as you have a way to be alerted, sleep well.

Will do my best, thanks Steve

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Correct me if I am wrong, but it is good that it stayed cloudy today, and the wedge that caused it will help lower the severe chances when the storms reach it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but it is good that it stayed cloudy today, and the wedge that caused it will help lower the severe chances when the storms reach it?

Correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snap346064273.png.69de4048e0c24597c3b169db4a48de30.png

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Areas affected...Northern AL...East-Central TN...Northern GA...Far
Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250055Z - 250600Z

SUMMARY...
Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the remainder of the evening hours and into the
early overnight hours.  Flash flooding is possible with the
stronger storms, with rainfall rates approaching two inches per
hour at times.

DISCUSSION...
Regional Doppler radars indicate a swath of heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms oriented southwest to northeast
from northeastern Mississippi to central Tennessee.  Although this
corridor of heavy rainfall is progressive, there will likely be
some short term training of convective elements that will lead to
enhanced rainfall rates in excess of 1.5 inches per hour, and
perhaps as high as two inches per hour based on some of the latest
HREF 1-hr probabilities.
 With heavy rainfall over much of this
region over the past couple of days, flash flood guidance is
reduced and thus is an aggravating factor in potential flooding.

Enhanced moisture convergence at the nose of a southwesterly low
level jet on the order of 40-50 knots based on the latest RAP
analysis, combined with favorable left exit jet dynamics and
positive vorticity advection from an approaching mid-level
shortwave, will favor deep layer ascent across this region.  PW
values are also expected to reach into the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range,
and there should also be enough MUCAPE available to fuel these
storms, generally on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg.

The most recent ARW2 and the WRF appear to have the best handle on
the ongoing convection.  These high res models are indicating
swaths of 2-3 inches of additional rainfall through 6Z across
portions of northern Alabama and northern Georgia.  Flash flooding
will be possible in those areas where storms persist the longest.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we're going to be fine, lots of rain, some thunder and lightning and maybe some gusty winds. My computer will wake me up... 🙂

Have a good evening!1991138038_GR2A-20200325-KFFC_0209_BR_0.5-0209.thumb.png.b51cc39d01c6008b9af8faea929b6bfb.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...