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NorthGeorgiaWX

GA Coronavirus Data Updates

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As some other post I've done here, this will be a running update with the newest day as the last comment. It is easier for me to display the images and explain them here than on FB. So here goes the noon update!

Yesterday saw a jump in testing with 3442 total test, whereas the previous day only tested 1538, more than doubling the number of the previous day of test. With an increase in cases of 572, that means that 16.6% of the test were positive, and that rate has been running about 23% (see below). More than 11,000 test have been performed in the last 6 days. 
EDIT: I had the wrong image for the top 5 Georgia counties, that has been replaced with the correct image.

SUMMARY
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CASES

To me, this is one of the most telling graphs of all. Each day we get an average geometric growth. Above one is positive growth, below one is negative growth. This graphs that value for each day (yellow line). I am also graphing a 7 day sliding window (red line) that smooths things out a little bit. Each of those also has a dotted trend line and those trend lines are extended 10 periods into the future. If the trends continue as they are now, we will cross into negative territory between April 10th-15th, and that would be the peak. Today's data won't show up in this and the next several images until tomorrow.

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In this image the two values I graph are the yellow and blue values. 
This uses morning data only and lags by one day

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This uses morning data only and lags by one daySnap346064507.thumb.png.1e8ba684349d78326953edc19dc519a7.png

 

This chart graphs the daily change in cases.
This uses morning data only and lags by one day.
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DEATHS

Deaths due to the virus are already negative so right now I'm not graphing those, but here is another look at that. This uses morning data only and lags by one day.
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This uses morning data only and lags by one day.Snap346064502.thumb.png.4719b316650786a9d73802703b9ebb7b.png

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HOSPITALIZATIONS
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Data from:
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

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04/07/02 - Tuesday

Here are today's updates. There was a sharp spike in every category in this report, not exactly sure why the reason is. It could have been a backlog in getting all the data because before yesterday, the rate of increase was down. We need another day or two to see if this is a blip or a real trend. 

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CASES
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DEATHS
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HOSPITALIZATIONS
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They opened up three places yesterday capable of doing 1000 tests daily each, so the testing capacity for Atlanta has increased greatly.  I know several people who wanted tests and are not able to get them.  Now they can register and get tested at one of the sites.  CVS is doing this in conjunction with GA Tech.

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2 hours ago, warnerharmer said:

They opened up three places yesterday capable of doing 1000 tests daily each, so the testing capacity for Atlanta has increased greatly.  I know several people who wanted tests and are not able to get them.  Now they can register and get tested at one of the sites.  CVS is doing this in conjunction with GA Tech.

More testing is always good news. Here's the problem I have. I started tracking the testing back on April 1. As you notice, they usually only post testing data in the AM data update, but a few days they included testing numbers in the evening update as well. No problem there. I calculate the difference between the current value and the previous value and those values go in the "Chg..." columns that you see. The last column in yellow is displaying the percentage of positive cases in relation to the "Change in Case" (Red arrow) divided by the "Change in Test" (blue arrow). I've added the change in cases together for those days that only report the change in test just one time during the day. It's not perfect because we don't know exactly when the test was done, was it actually done the day before or the reported date. 

What I question are the days where positive rates double or close to double the normal rate. And look at April 2nd. How do you have more positive test than total test?

So today we supposedly have a 51% positive rate? How do positive numbers fluctuate? One way would be that people that are getting tested are the ones that needed to be tested (ie the ones that showed the symptoms) and therefore more positive cases. That would actually be a good thing in that more people with the virus can be identified and isolated. But I can't think of anyway you have more positives than test by a wide margin that may indicate a lag in the reporting. I would not be surprised to see a two or three day lag in the case numbers based on what we're seeing. I hate to think that there is any number manipulation but I do question the big jump in deaths for today's data. 

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04/08/02 - Wednesday
 

EDIT: No longer missing graphs.
I am missing some graphs from the website I get them from, so I'll try to have those later today, it appears the website is not responding right now.

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CASESSnap346064582.thumb.png.509164ad28d2dcb28611e0dcdafb9d1f.png

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DEATHSSnap346064583.thumb.png.5f0713984cddfa540b793f79404c8b60.png

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Kinda hard to say the trend is up (or down) with data and testing so non linear as it’s currently all over the place with big testing increasing but reports of those test all over the place. Frustrating 

this current run looks like our peak is gonna be June lol we no that’s not true. 

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33 minutes ago, Mmoore said:

Kinda hard to say the trend is up (or down) with data and testing so non linear as it’s currently all over the place with big testing increasing but reports of those test all over the place. Frustrating 

this current run looks like our peak is gonna be June lol we no that’s not true. 

The trend rate of increase was on a solid downhill trend, but spikes like this skew the data since we're working with a limited set of data. I'm still optimistic that this was a blip and that the trend will continue to decrease. We need a few more days of data to know. 

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I look at it this way. We went from a 1.8 geometric growth rate in daily changes in the death rate to suddenly 5.56? I don't think so.

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7 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I look at it this way. We went from a 1.8 geometric growth rate in daily changes in the death rate to suddenly 5.56? I don't think so.

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Yes can’t be right

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04/10/20 - Friday

Here are the latest updates. Just a note about the "Avg geometric growth" that I have highlighted. This value reflects the rate of change of the numbers from day to day. The smaller the number the better because that means a smaller change from the previous report. Once those numbers drop below "1.0", that would mean that the number we're tracking (let's say cases) has less cases today than yesterday. I graph those daily values to see what the trends are, and by running a trend line out some period in advance, we can see approximately when we get to the peak of the curve and start heading down the other side. In this image, you can see the rate 29 days ago, the previous week, and previous day. If those numbers are decreasing, the rate of acceleration is decreasing, and that is exactly what this image shows.

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DEATHS

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Give us a synopsis on each post if you would as really helps “decode” graphs

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1 hour ago, Mmoore said:

Give us a synopsis on each post if you would as really helps “decode” graphs

I will do that starting tomorrow. I have today's numbers but got busy and haven't posted them. 

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The daily change in cases and deaths is one of the best ways to view the coronavirus data. When you start graphing those and then take a weekly average to smooth out spikes in the data, the result is plainly obvious. We have peaked here in Georgia and peaked in cases in the US.

To me, these four graphs tell the whole story, two for Georgia and two for the US. These are all one week averages of the daily change in cases and deaths. According to these, we have peaked in Georgia and in terms of new cases, also the US.

Once the geometric rate drops below 1.0, we are going downhill.

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United States
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Keep in mind that deaths will normally lag behind. People (cases) may be sick for several weeks before (or IF) they die.

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Annnnnnnnd I didn't do them on Thursday. 🙂 I'll do my best to get it all updated today.

 

Thanks for all you do! 

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Data updated last night, Friday, April 18

We are at the peak. The trend is flat, and a 1.00 geometric rate indicates that. Remember, these are weekly averages that smooth out any peaks and dips and are much better indicators than looking at daily changes only. 

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The trend for new cases is flat. Again, 1.00 trend. 

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viruscalc-11-19.thumb.png.23992091b12254903ff5a1fcea2d27ff.pngviruscalc-2-19.thumb.png.3792d10f3eae56e2ac5cf603460107e6.png

 

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These were updated at 9 PM, Saturday, April 18. Both these trends are flat.

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I've included the next set of images to show how New York City accounts for the majority of the cases in this country, by a wide margin, and also how those numbers drastically change the US numbers. They come from this article: https://pjmedia.com/trending/heres-how-much-downstate-new-york-is-skewing-the-united-states-coronavirus-numbers/?fbclid=IwAR3OW5nofcP8a7P1NW--igoFULSGAT_mf2wIYkiR4KYKvUcC1ckCacvHOQ8Top25MetroAreas-1024x576.png

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