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GA Coronavirus Data Updates

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Do you have the daily increases of cases data somewhere? I am just curious how many cases are going up each day.  I know there are probably thousands that won't be counted but I am just curious.  Thanks for putting all this together!!

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Posted (edited)
On 4/20/2020 at 4:43 PM, gaikkeb said:

Do you have the daily increases of cases data somewhere? I am just curious how many cases are going up each day.  I know there are probably thousands that won't be counted but I am just curious.  Thanks for putting all this together!!

Attached are daily rolling averages of cases and deaths from the GA Dept of Health. The rolling average is going down. And the peak was around April 6th. The peak death average was on April 15th. 

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daily_rolling_cases.png

Edited by RandyRhythm
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43 minutes ago, RandyRhythm said:

Attached are daily rolling averages of cases and deaths from the GA Dept of Health. The rolling average is going down. And the peak was around April 6th. The peak death average was on April 15th. 

daily_rolling_deaths.png

daily_rolling_cases.png

LOL! Brilliant minds think alike. Just posting the new data. 🙂

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Friday, April 24

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Quote

Two major databases that track COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S., but not total mortality, are WorldOMeters and the Johns Hopkins University Hub. These trackers show major variation in COVID-19 mortality risk.  

For example, as of April 22, WorldOMeters showed 47,681 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. (50 states and the District of Columbia) with a rate of 144 deaths per 1 million people. 

However, note that 71% of the deaths have occurred in six high-risk states (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and Michigan) with 17% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 624 per million.

Ten percent have occurred in five medium-risk states (Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana) and the District of Columbia with 12% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 124 per million, and 19% have occurred in the remaining 39 low-risk states with 71% of U.S. residents and a death rate of 40 per million.

It remains to be determined, however, whether these COVID-19 deaths have actually increased the total U.S. deaths this year. The best data on both COVID-19 deaths and total deaths in the U.S. come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention‘s National Center for Health Statistics. 

During the five weeks ending Feb. 1 through Feb. 29, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 282,084 total deaths, which were 96% of the expected deaths based on concurrent 2017-2019 deaths. During the five weeks ending March 7 to April 4, the CDC reported 273,798 total deaths, which were 96% of the expected deaths.  

Of the 9,474 COVID-19 deaths reported during these 10 weeks, 78.5% were among people over age 65, 21.4% were between the ages of 25 and 64, and only 0.1% were ages newborn to 24 years.

Those death counts through the end of March are preliminary, but they do not indicate that the total number of deaths in 2020 is greater than the comparable number of deaths during each of the three prior years. 

Once the number of COVID-19 deaths and total deaths during the entire month of April are known, it will be clear whether there has been an increase in the total number of U.S. deaths this year.

One reason there may not be an increase in total deaths is because some deaths are being classified as COVID-19 deaths even when COVID-19 is not the underlying cause. 

Normally, mortality statistics are compiled in accordance with World Health Organization regulations specifying that each death be assigned an underlying cause based on the current 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). 

However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that COVID-19 deaths are being coded to ICD-10 code U07.1 when COVID-19 is reported as a cause that “contributed to” death on the death certificate, but is not necessarily the “underlying cause.” Also, some of those deaths do not have laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection.

Thus, it’s possible that the focus on COVID-19 deaths has resulted in a lower number of deaths from seasonal flu, pneumonia, and other causes, compared with the number that would normally occur this year. 

Link to article

 

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Sunday, April 26

One thing I've noticed is that the % of positive versus total tested is continuing to go down. That percentage was up around 25% and is now 19% and dropping. Gwinnett moved up one spot to 3rd highest number of cases with 1.62 cases per 1000 people. 

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I'm hopeful that the shelter in place and social distancing helped a lot - and it looks like it did.  Now if in getting back to "normal," people can be as cautious as possible, maybe we can avoid a resurgence.  

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5 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I'm hopeful that the shelter in place and social distancing helped a lot - and it looks like it did.  Now if in getting back to "normal," people can be as cautious as possible, maybe we can avoid a resurgence.  

I think if Kemp had used these figures and explained it would have helped. Too many don’t understand any numbers but that cases and deaths continue to rise. 

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2 hours ago, Bagsmom said:

I'm hopeful that the shelter in place and social distancing helped a lot - and it looks like it did.  Now if in getting back to "normal," people can be as cautious as possible, maybe we can avoid a resurgence.  

Studies are showing that it doesn't help all that much.

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Cases and deaths are a terrible metric to use to actually see what's going on, especially if you're graphing data. Total cases will always go up because they are totals, same for deaths. What matters are the rate of changes, and those are tapering off. 

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Monday, April 27

One thing I've noticed is that the % of positive test compared to negative has steadily been going down. So I started looking at the data to figure out why. In this first image you see three highlighted columns.

The magenta column is the daily change in test.
The yellow columns is the daily change in cases
The last column is the daily change in cases / daily change in test displayed as a percentage. Even though testing has gone up, there are less and less positive cases.

That would tend to negate the idea that there are many many people out there that have it and don't know it. We're testing a lot more people, but the percentage that are testing positive is getting less and less. That's not to say you can't have it and don't know it, but based on these numbers, that is becoming less and less likely.

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The state DPH updated their daily report webpage today with better explanations on what the data is and how to interpret it. 

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1 hour ago, RandyRhythm said:

The state DPH updated their daily report webpage today with better explanations on what the data is and how to interpret it. 

Just wish they'd update some of their graphs! 🙂 

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35 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Thanks for your updates Steve! Much appreciated!!!

The numbers are looking better and better. 

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Tuesday, April 28

I'm having to do things a little different. The GA Dept of Health has changed their website and have added new graphs and some new data. BUT... they have also removed the list of deaths that had data on pre-existing conditions... none of that data is visible now. There is also a tremendous rise in test today over yesterday. Monday's data showed. The numbers highlighted in yellow are changes from yesterday's report. It appears and it is only my guess, that they finally caught up with some data. Notice the blue highlight. Despite the big increase in test, the percentage of positive cases compared to the increase in cases is lower than yesterday. Also, this data is delayed sometimes by days, those 88 new deaths didn't just happen yesterday just like any of the other columns of data. You'll also notice back on the 25th they had a big jump and another big jump on the 18th. 

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I'll work on getting some of my graphs updated and share those later. 

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Last nights data

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