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2 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I take it that, it is a good sign that not many have a significant impact on Georgia?

I don't see it that way at all. These are just the closest matches to the current setup, tomorrow there may be different matches. One match one you never want to see again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak

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Two images, I'll do one at a time. 

This is the NAM 3km high resolution model and this is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP and also known as "SigTor"), and it covers the period from 4 AM Sunday through 2 AM Monday. Right now this is as far out as the model goes. The next image uses the same time frame from the same model.

nam-nest-conus-georgia-sig_tor-1586541600-1586678400-1586757600-80.thumb.gif.d82237693dbad806933c4df66e5dd64a.gif

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23 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Two images, I'll do one at a time. 

This is the NAM 3km high resolution model and this is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP and also known as "SigTor"), and it covers the period from 4 AM Sunday through 2 AM Monday. Right now this is as far out as the model goes. The next image uses the same time frame from the same model.

nam-nest-conus-georgia-sig_tor-1586541600-1586678400-1586757600-80.thumb.gif.d82237693dbad806933c4df66e5dd64a.gif

Admittedly, 

 

that is a daunting loop. We’re in for one heck of ride it looks like.

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

These are the top analogs and I highlighted a few with a significant impact on Georgia.

Snap346064682.thumb.png.815110a9c8fabf1a22adc2a1f36d78e7.png

Just seeing 04/27/2011 among the top analogs is chilling. Sat and watched out my window as a tornado went over the top of Germany mountain that night. Having at least a few analogs where the parameters weren't really realized is nice though. Just like with a snow storm, there are tons of unforseen ways that a modeled event can fizzle on the day of even when it looks perfect, so I've got my fingers crossed for that outcome. 

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Just seeing 04/27/2011 among the top analogs is chilling. Sat and watched out my window as a tornado went over the top of Germany mountain that night. Having at least a few analogs where the parameters weren't really realized is nice though. Just like with a snow storm, there are tons of unforseen ways that a modeled event can fizzle on the day of even when it looks perfect, so I've got my fingers crossed for that outcome. 

You are not the only one, and I am sure we are not the only two either.

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So, this is a really weird question that just popped into my head that I am curious about. Has anyone, in the history of the NWS and the models it uses, tried to hack the system and make a storm seem like it was somewhere it wasn't, or make radar not see a serious storm? I am going to be studying computer science, and I just thought about that.

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Two images, I'll do one at a time. 

This is the NAM 3km high resolution model and this is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP and also known as "SigTor"), and it covers the period from 4 AM Sunday through 2 AM Monday. Right now this is as far out as the model goes. The next image uses the same time frame from the same model.

nam-nest-conus-georgia-sig_tor-1586541600-1586678400-1586757600-80.thumb.gif.d82237693dbad806933c4df66e5dd64a.gif

That is frightening to say the least. I started thinking about how to prepare to respond to help a community nearby if impacted by a tornado, but then we have to worry about Covid-19. This isn't going to play out well. 

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53 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

So, this is a really weird question that just popped into my head that I am curious about. Has anyone, in the history of the NWS and the models it uses, tried to hack the system and make a storm seem like it was somewhere it wasn't, or make radar not see a serious storm? I am going to be studying computer science, and I just thought about that.

The NWS isn't the only game in town. We have the Euro, UKMet, Canadian, JMA (Japanese), and on and on. To actually change the output would be nearly impossible. Even if you could fudge with the data, you wouldn't have any idea how the model would react to it.  I have to say no way. Sometimes the NWS shoots themselves in the foot, things don't always work, products get delayed, etc. but not due to hacking. 

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This is the Supercell Composite... it took me a while, I had to eat dinner. 🙂nam-nest-conus-georgia-supercell_comp-1586541600-1586678400-1586757600-80.thumb.gif.2ac4916ed37d1c29f48be27325607bbe.gif

Now the parameters on this. Is it like percentage probabilities of a storm within a certain area? 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The NWS isn't the only game in town. We have the Euro, UKMet, Canadian, JMA (Japanese), and on and on. To actually change the output would be nearly impossible. Even if you could fudge with the data, you wouldn't have any idea how the model would react to it.  I have to say no way. Sometimes the NWS shoots themselves in the foot, things don't always work, products get delayed, etc. but not due to hacking. 

Okay, thanks, I was watching some Youtube and the question just popped into my mind.

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20 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Now the parameters on this. Is it like percentage probabilities of a storm within a certain area? 

No, that tries to identify the potential intensity and is a combination of variables. use it as a relative gauge for thunderstorm intensity. This is from the SPC. 

Quote

A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell "threshold" values, and larger values of SCP denote greater "overlap" in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

This index is formulated as follows:
SCP = (muCAPE / 1000 J kg-1) * (ESRH / 50 m2 s-2) * (EBWD / 20 m s-1) * (-40 J kg-1 / muCIN)
EBWD is divided by 20 m s-1 in the range of 10-20 m s-1. EBWD less than 10 m s-1is set to zero, and EBWD greater than 20 m s-1 is set to one. The muCIN term is based on work by Gropp and Davenport (2018), August issue of Weather and Forecasting, and it is set to 1.0 when muCIN is greater than -40 kg-1.

 

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4AM Sunday? - 2AM Monday?

The most intense for us appears to then be at the end of the loop above. I'm confused, I thought the threat was Sunday into Monday AM? Now, is it actually *on* Monday, too?

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5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Is this threat becoming more likely as of  this evening?

It's roughly the same, nothing that really jump out right now. We'll see what the SPC says at 1 AM.

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2 minutes ago, audpogue said:

4AM Sunday? - 2AM Monday?

The most intense for us appears to then be at the end of the loop above. I'm confused, I thought the threat was Sunday into Monday AM? Now, is it actually *on* Monday, too?

Right now it's Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, and into the morning hours Monday. Multiple rounds are possible. 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Right now it's Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, and into the morning hours Monday. Multiple rounds are possible. 

Okay, what I thought. Gross either way! I hope this just decides to pull a "snow" and fizzle out. It can knock the power out if it must show off! Ya know what I mean? I'll take a little while in the dark over loss of property or life. I just really hope things aren't as bad as predicted.

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1 minute ago, audpogue said:

Okay, what I thought. Gross either way! I hope this just decides to pull a "snow" and fizzle out. It can knock the power out if it must show off! Ya know what I mean? I'll take a little while in the dark over loss of property or life. I just really hope things aren't as bad as predicted.

Amen

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Can’t help but notice that along where the wedge is and the best parameters moving in has some of the highest parameters. The wedge can be your friend but can help increase rotation. 

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