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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 12-13 Severe Weather Event

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1 minute ago, LoveSnow said:

I wonder why there’s no tornado watch for Atlanta/south yet?

Too soon. The watch that was issued was only issued about 30 minutes before the storms are to arrive. We are a ways off, it will come.

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Too soon. The watch that was issued was only issued about 30 minutes before the storms are to arrive. We are a ways off, it will come.

Think they might extend the tornado watch just issued past 11pm? 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Extend or just expand.

Also, hi-res model just shows one line coming through late tonight but that doesn't seem to accurately represent what is going on, especially with some of the storm development far to our west

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Extend or just expand.

And here is the answer

955719015_mcd0366(1).gif.8a0ba96116e0ad3c208b282c7e03536d.gif

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 122310Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...
Damaging wind/tornado risk will expand into parts of northern Georgia over the next hour.  WW issuance will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar loop continues to show a long-lived, well-organized cluster of storms with an embedded mesolow moving rapidly east-northeastward across northeast Arkansas.  Within this cluster, several smaller-scale tornadic-type circulations have transiently occurred.  Though instability is limited with northward extent over northern Georgia, a small area of ample instability exists ahead of this cluster -- given the very strong flow field aloft -- to allow risk for damaging winds and tornado potential to expand into parts of northern Georgia.  A new tornado watch will likely be required.
 

 

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Okay, so what am I seeing right now on radar? Is what's barreling NW Ga right now Round 1? And what does that make what's in Arkansas? Sorry, information overload...

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2 minutes ago, audpogue said:

Okay, so what am I seeing right now on radar? Is what's barreling NW Ga right now Round 1? And what does that make what's in Arkansas? Sorry, information overload...

Round two are the Arkansas storms. It's going to be a long night. 

Snap346064725.thumb.png.f60ce8ac6485223cbabe0e823bafc019.png

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EVcY-RmUUAAnwyB.thumb.jpg.7d5320bab660736d43ab9da53bb014a4.jpg

NWS FFC has Continued a Tornado Warning for *** Dalton, Naomi, Mill Creek, Subligna, Suttles Mill And Villanow. - Chattooga & Walker Counties until 9:00 PM *** Damaging Tornado. At 832 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Suttles Mill, or near Lafayette, moving northeast

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NWS Birmingham Update

Quote

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0700 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/

Mesoscale Update.

An all-hazards severe weather threat continues across portions of Central Alabama. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail, and tornadoes all remain possible into the overnight hours as a dynamic shortwave trough (which is taking a more neutral tilt) and surface low pressure eject eastward.

Recent surface observations depict a favorable warm sector now along and north of the I-20/59 corridor, including SBCAPE 500-1,500 J/kg, EBS 60-70 kts, and 0-1 km SRH 500-700 m2/s2. These values are also supported by the 21Z BMX RAOB and various RADAR derived hodographs.

Lift will continue to be abundant across the region as pressure & height falls accompany upper-level diffluence & quasigeostrophic forcing, as well as a surface moisture convergence axis from northeast AL into southwest MS. Thus, deep/moist convection will continue to be problematic over the next several hours, even as storm modes become less discrete.

Threats also include flash flooding as high rain rates train north of I-20, generally along/near a 1.8-2.0" PW axis and confluent flow in the 925-850 mb layer.

Short-range guidance suggests favorable atmospheric conditions for all-hazards will persist for the next several hours as a more linear convective system with embedded supercells ejects across Central AL. The effective layer significant tornado parameter is progged to remain as high as 5 ahead of this system through that time, suggesting an environment favorable for tornadogenesis and strong tornadoes.

 

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mcd0369.gif.bb6aea9994055b953d27a54877f05c52.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0369
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...northern GA...far southeast TN...and western
   portions of NC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 112...

   Valid 130041Z - 130145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado risk is expanding into the
   southwestern TN area and adjacent portions of the western Carolinas.
    A new tornado watch will be issued.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived, well-organized cluster of storms that has
   maintained tornadic potential despite the marginal thermodynamic
   environment, continues moving northeastward across northwestern
   GA/WW 112.  Given the organization of the storms, it appears that
   damaging wind/tornado risk will continue spreading into western
   portions of North Carolina and far southeastern Tennessee.  A new,
   small tornado watch will be issued shortly, downstream from WW 112.

   ..Goss.. 04/13/2020

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Temperature in Buford at my location just jumped 7 degrees in less than 5 minutes. It was accompanied by a 21 mph gust 

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Eerie outside here in gwinnett. Hall closet is ready for us with shoes and pillows. 

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It’s been very eerie in Dunwoody.  No birds chirping...just the wind blowing through.  It’s ominous, for sure.  Y’all be safe.

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Got the kiddos laid on a palette in the living room. Trying to keep them calm and stay abreast of everything. 

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12 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Temperature in Buford at my location just jumped 7 degrees in less than 5 minutes. It was accompanied by a 21 mph gust 

Same here

9 minutes ago, JenRay said:

Eerie outside here in gwinnett. Hall closet is ready for us with shoes and pillows. 

I know... ready to go. 

Just now, LEmbs said:

It’s been very eerie in Dunwoody.  No birds chirping...just the wind blowing through.  It’s ominous, for sure.  Y’all be safe.

The birds know...

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Shouldn't this cell have a tornado warning? Screenshot_20200412-210218.thumb.png.38a4684f9d0dad730012dcf2a83a7a7e.png

I was thinking the same. It’s been tightening rotation for a HOT minute

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