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April 12-13 Severe Weather Event


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Just a little something I wrote yesterday.  Maybe it will redirect your fear to hope on this Day ----      Happy Easter Easter Short Story by Ricky Aldridge He is not here----He is Risen.M

Okay, To avoid over worrying myself, I am gonna leave for a bit. Don't worry, have good ways to get alerts. Goodbye for now everyone, stay safe.

It seems like Dawson County is clear now, so I am heading to bed, goodnight everyone.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ummm, not sure. I would look at different tilts and see if it shows up on those.

1,2,3 were 107, 92, 92, and then 4 was RF/48... weird. It’s knocking on my door basically and I’m like WHAT IS THAT. Lol

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mcd0373.gif.635cd94bf699bb59baad07dac74f4a35.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...northern Georgia...southeast Tennessee...western
and central portions of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 130317Z - 130445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 112 and 113.

DISCUSSION...While earlier, more cellular convection has
weakened/moved out of WW 112/113, an organized band of storms --
with embedded rotational radar signatures -- moving across northern
Alabama will continue shifting east into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee over the next hour.  Some low-level moistening has
occurred across the area on strong southerly surface flow, with
upper 60s dewpoints now extending to the GA/TN border, which has
boosted mixed-layer cape to near 1000 J/kg per RUC-based objective
analysis.  

The latest KFFC WSR-88D VWP shows extreme low-level and deep-layer
shear (53 kt sfc-1 km and 86 kt 0-6 km), and therefore -- in
conjunction with increased buoyancy -- expect risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds to continue.

Meanwhile east of the existing watches, into the western Carolinas,
similarly strong low-level and deep-layer shear is indicated.  While
instability is weaker, a gradual increase in CAPE with time appears
to be fueling small cellular development.  With this convection
possibly increasing in coverage/intensity with time, a new tornado
watch may become necessary.
 

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So in the last day or so all the models that looked the worst were able to clear out this moderate rain ahead of the main line. Unless I'm reading too much into it, that doesn't appear to be happening. If so that should greatly reduce chances for the stronger tornados. Spin ups on the line and straight line winds would still be very serious threats, but it's somewhat of a silver lining at least. 

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

mcd0373.gif.635cd94bf699bb59baad07dac74f4a35.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...northern Georgia...southeast Tennessee...western
and central portions of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

Valid 130317Z - 130445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 112 and 113.

DISCUSSION...While earlier, more cellular convection has
weakened/moved out of WW 112/113, an organized band of storms --
with embedded rotational radar signatures -- moving across northern
Alabama will continue shifting east into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee over the next hour.  Some low-level moistening has
occurred across the area on strong southerly surface flow, with
upper 60s dewpoints now extending to the GA/TN border, which has
boosted mixed-layer cape to near 1000 J/kg per RUC-based objective
analysis.  

The latest KFFC WSR-88D VWP shows extreme low-level and deep-layer
shear (53 kt sfc-1 km and 86 kt 0-6 km), and therefore -- in
conjunction with increased buoyancy -- expect risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds to continue.

Meanwhile east of the existing watches, into the western Carolinas,
similarly strong low-level and deep-layer shear is indicated.  While
instability is weaker, a gradual increase in CAPE with time appears
to be fueling small cellular development.  With this convection
possibly increasing in coverage/intensity with time, a new tornado
watch may become necessary.
 

I’m really shocked they did it that way and not more, elongated. All those cells in Alabama don’t look like fun at all...

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mcd0374.gif.866aa63b5590317af6e0cd7c1439b5b6.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0374
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...parts of Alabama and into western and central
   Georgia and portions of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

   Valid 130328Z - 130500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 109 and 110, and
   will spread eastward into western and central Georgia and parts of
   the Florida panhandle over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection now occurring in a
   complex/broken band from the southern Appalachians
   south-southwestward to near Mobile Bay.  Within this band, several
   well-organized clusters of storms -- including numerous rotating
   updrafts and comma heads -- are indicated.  Mixed-layer CAPE of 1000
   to 1500 J/kg is indicated across this region, and extreme low-level
   shear is observed (0-1km shear 40 to 50 kt and 0-1km storm-relative
   helicity in excess of 700 m2/s2 across GA).

   Given the environment, tornado risk remains high with stronger
   clusters embedded within the main convective band, and with any
   cells which may develop in advance of the line.  A new tornado watch
   will be issued shortly across southern and eastern Alabama, and into
   Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
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3 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

I’m really shocked they did it that way and not more, elongated. All those cells in Alabama don’t look like fun at all...

Yeah, I’m in Haralson county right near the AL/GA line and was expecting us to be included in a Tornado Watch or something. So far nothing.

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Just now, Asperman1 said:

Is setting the expiration time to 7am just a precaution and it will be cancelled before then, or will the threat for tornadoes really last untill then?

Depends. We'll just have to wait and see.

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Based off the radar it looks like the worst of the line is almost done moving through Haralson county. Nothing more than heavy rain and some decent thunder and lightning. I think it thundered worse before the storm. Everyone stay safe!

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Very powerful tornado just passed near Thomaston, GA. Just as powerful as those in Mississippi earlier today. I got 138mph away and 80mph towards on rardarscope which is very intense. Big debris ball as well. Praying very hard for folks in those areas. Just a pit in my stomach right now watching that debris ball just keep trucking. I hate these night time tornados like this... 

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Very powerful tornado just passed near Thomaston, GA. Just as powerful as those in Mississippi earlier today. I got 138mph away and 80mph towards on rardarscope which is very intense. Big debris ball as well. Praying very hard for folks in those areas. Just a pit in my stomach right now watching that debris ball just keep trucking. I hate these night time tornados like this... 

Yeah that one is ugly. Still on the ground I think too. 😕 Praying for all those who live in that area

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