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April 12-13 Severe Weather Event

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Just now, audpogue said:

Would any of you be willing to share music that you like to listen to help calm your anxiety? Loading up my playlist...thank you!!

Rainbow Connection, Kermit the Frog version, tends to help me

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4 hours ago, kelli231 said:

Can you give us a little more info for northeast Georgia??... im not familiar with a lot of the terminology, but wanting to know what to expect and an approximate timeframe.  Thank you!!

I hope you saw the post right below yours that talks about the timing. We'll know much more early in the morning.

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Now the 7 day forcast says this for me:

Sunday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. High near 66. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Just now, Asperman1 said:

Now the 7 day forcast says this for me:

Sunday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. High near 66. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

And obviously that doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And obviously that doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

Right, but it seems to somewhat support what you said about the weather starting a bit later in the day for the north, different from South and West.

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This has my nerves all tore up. I hate bad weather. I know you said we will see severe weather but I’m still praying it will decrease in intensity before getting to us in Habersham. 

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36 minutes ago, sonyaturgeon said:

This has my nerves all tore up. I hate bad weather. I know you said we will see severe weather but I’m still praying it will decrease in intensity before getting to us in Habersham. 

Mine too. Everyone try to get some good sleep tonight. You’ll need it. 

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This isnt related to this topic but anybody know what is causing this on rardarscope on reflectivity? At first i thought it was clutter but it appears on every other radar site nearby.

Screenshot_20200411-213246.png

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Bust potential is definitely still there, always is, but it's highly unlikely. I think figuring out the main mode of storms in our area is going to be very tricky. Could be anything from discrete super cells to linear QLCS, or even a bit of both. 

This video from James Spann is really great. A little Alabama-centric of course but there is a lot of great info and advice in there that everyone could use. 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, HiTekRedNek said:

This isnt related to this topic but anybody know what is causing this on rardarscope on reflectivity? At first i thought it was clutter but it appears on every other radar site nearby.

Screenshot_20200411-213246.png

Technical term is a type of anomalous propagation of the radar beam. But to most it's just called a radar bloom, happens almost nightly to various extents. 

Here's a short article on them. https://medium.com/weather-wisdom/radar-beams-refraction-inversions-and-ground-clutter-4b7dec0df821

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SUNDAY - Day 1

Good Sunday morning! Let's go ahead and jump into the fire. The SPC has extended the Moderate Risk Area into NW Georgia now.

626340730_SPC_CO_Day1State(1).thumb.png.a9846c73087b13ed319cae091afea716.png

 

Severe winds have increased in probability

687463746_SPC_WP_Day1State(1).thumb.png.d3555f0cd6259fc06501128dcf6b00c9.png

 

The Tornado probability has changed and that to has been extended to cover all of the Atlanta metro area. The hatch means "significant" Tornadoes are possible. Think EF3-EF5 and possibly long track.181522472_SPC_TP_Day1State(1).thumb.png.5a800a91d87490f33ca11e838774c6d4.png

 

Hail is still a good possibility.

1164716237_SPC_HP_Day1State(1).thumb.png.6c7588ed44ec0b3db6af587f7aa232f9.png

 

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN LA... MUCH OF MS... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL AND FAR NORTHWEST GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into tonight, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible.

   ...Synopsis...

   An outbreak of severe storms is expected today across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeastern U.S. Intense storms capable of widespread damaging winds, large hail, and several strong tornadoes are possible with several rounds of storms from late morning into the overnight hours. 

   ...ArkLaTex into the Southeast...

   Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring upper 60's to low 70's F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based. Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense  vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with this convective mode as well. 

   Further east, strong surface heating and increasing dewpoints will result in weak destabilization across the Carolina's in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Upper forcing will remain weaker across this area, limiting storm coverage. However, a few cells could become intense, capable of a couple of tornadoes and severe wind/hail during the afternoon.
 

 

NWS Atlanta

Quote

The main issue for the short term will be the severe weather event setting up for later today into tonight. A potent short wave
developing in the Southern Plains will become negatively tilted as it moves through the OH/TN Valley area overnight. There should be some shower and thunderstorm development ahead of this system this morning and into the afternoon. Pops should be increasing across the forecast area during the day. The most favored time for severe thunderstorms should be this evening into the overnight... ahead of the surface front and upper low. Total QPF values from this morning through Monday afternoon are forecast to range from two to four inches across the far north...with one to two inches elsewhere. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the area roughly along and north of a Rome to Jasper to Cleveland line for this afternoon through Monday morning. A Wind Advisory remains in effect area wide generally for this same time period. Storms will exit the east central counties Monday morning with a few severe still possible. Expect all storms to be east of the forecast area late Monday afternoon. 

 

NWS Birmingham

Quote

Updated at 0325 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/

...High-Impact Severe Weather Event Likely Today and Tonight...

An initial upper level shortwave is lifting northeastward just to our northwest this morning. This is sparking a round of rain showers across the northern half of Mississippi and is expected to spread across the northern half of Alabama this morning. Very little thunderstorm activity has been associated with this round due to the lack of instability. The warm front, located in the Northern Gulf, will lift northward later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Latest model guidance has backed off on any precip development along the warm front, though I think it's still possible given the strong dynamics with this system. After the warm front moves through, warm/moist air builds in very quickly, leading to a very unstable environment for any storms that develop and/or move through for the rest of the day. SBCAPE values are forecast to be in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range, LI values in the -6 to -8 range, and mid- level lapse rates around 6-7 C/Km. A capping inversion is expected to setup across much of the area, limiting any widespread shower development that could substantially augment this unstable warm sector.

Ahead of the main line of storms, models continue to pick up on a shortwave impulse lifting through as both the low level and upper level jets begin nosing in. This wave could provide enough energy and lift to help break the capping inversion, allowing for more discrete cells to develop in the warm sector that would track quickly to the east-northeast. However, some guidance maintains a stronger capping inversion and doesn't really develop the convection through the early to mid-afternoon. This aspect will ultimately be a matter of short-term mesoscale forecasting, unfortunately, and we may not know for sure until the storms begin developing. Any storms that do develop in this environment have the potential to become strong supercells capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

During the later afternoon to evening hours, the main line of thunderstorms is expected to move through MS and approach Central AL. The main upper level trough becomes more negatively tilted by this point, enhancing the upper level diffluence. This line will likely become a QLCS and could move into a nearly uncontaminated air mass, so the threat of tornadoes, wind, and hail will continue along the line as it moves west to east through our area.

This is a very concerning synoptic setup for severe weather in Central AL. The biggest uncertainty continues to be how the
afternoon convection will evolve with the capping inversion in place.

In case the high-impact severe weather threat wasn't enough, we've got two other hazards in the forecast for today. First, due
to the multiple round of thunderstorms, and the potential for these to train over the same locations, especially in our
northwestern counties, we could see some flash flooding situations. Therefore, a flash flood watch has been issued from
noon through midnight. Second, as the surface low deepens and lifts to our north and west today, the pressure gradient
increasing considerably, which will lead to strong gusty winds for
much of the day (outside any thunderstorm activity).

 

 

NWS Huntsville

Quote

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Now for the tonight period.
Most of the convective allowing models do actually lift the warm front north through at least Northeastern Alabama, if not all of northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. This will be out ahead of the main cold front. The HRRR appears to be the main outlier with probably our "worst-case" scenario, lifting the warm front north of the AL/TN border during the afternoon. The earlier this warm front lifts north, the more instability the cold front will have to work with to generate stronger storms across the Tennessee Valley. This would probably mean some form of QLCS feature develops with bowing segments producing damaging winds and embedded circulations possibly generating tornadoes
.

The "best-case" scenario, on the other hand, doesn't have the warm front lift north into the Tennessee Valley really at all, which keeps most of the severe weather with the more dynamic cold front to our south. Models showing this scenario still clip Sand
Mountain with a stronger storm or two, but leaves NW Alabama pretty much out of the severe thunderstorm threat. We will have to watch the warm front very closely through the day today. The likely scenario will probably be somewhere in between.

Now for winds.
This dynamic system generates a fairly strong pressure gradient out ahead of the surface low, setting up across most of Alabama and Middle Tennessee. This will mean gusty southerly winds are expected to develop with the strengthening pressure gradient this afternoon through late tonight. The gradient really doesn't relax until the base of the upper-level trough swings through, which might not be until after midnight tonight. In Northeast Alabama, the gradient might not relax until as late as 7 AM Monday morning. We have a wind advisory out until midnight tonight, however this may need to be extended in NE Alabama depending on how the low actually tracks.

We have a second frontal boundary that is more associated with the base of the upper-level trough and a secondary surface low
developing along the occlusion. This may bring one final line of showers and thunderstorms through just behind the stronger cold
front around 10 PM to 2 AM. This could possibly be another round of severe thunderstorms. Main question with this line will be will the environment be "tapped out" by the time it arrives? Will the strong dynamics with the cold front aided by the upper-level trough help these storms stay strong and overcome a lesser amount of instability? There will still be a significant amount of low-level and bulk shear. At this time it's hard to say what to make of this second cold front. All I can say at this point is continue to be weather aware going into Sunday night.

 

Here's the current NAM loop of the STP or Significant Tornado Parameter. All of the severe weather parameters are maximized during the late evening/early morning hours. Of course. It's going to be a long day AND night. 


STP or Significant Tornado Parameternam-nest-conus-georgia-sig_tor-1586671200-1586671200-1586779200-80.thumb.gif.4a97b7c677b811ebc000f60e90576454.gif

 

Supercell Composite
nam-nest-conus-georgia-supercell_comp-1586671200-1586671200-1586779200-80.thumb.gif.1cf0cd467651d14bfb8e310eea5f7907.gif

 

This is helicity, or the amount of "twist" in the atmosphere as you go up in elevationnam-nest-conus-georgia-hlcy_0-3000-6671200.thumb.png.bb93bd96ce6aeb1e1acbdb3cc3a50a60.png

 

I still think the winds and tornadoes are the primary threat. All three wind images are at midnight.

925 MB Wind (~2400 feet in this image)

nam-nest-conus-georgia-z925_speed-6750400.thumb.png.c616d5ef082a7cb80c6fe95acd81ca9b.png

 

850 MB Winds (~ 4800 feet)nam-nest-conus-georgia-z850_speed-6750400.thumb.png.bfbdabcef68046b84fe4a2c6236ca23c.png

 

700 MB Winds (~10,000 feet)

nam-nest-conus-georgia-z700_speed-6750400.thumb.png.6d87b33115ec902ed0259b87e1dd19cd.png

 

All in all, we are going to have a long drawn out day of multiple rounds of severe weather. ALL MODES OF SEVERE weather will be possible. Have multiple ways of receiving weather information. 

EVXge02UUAAR8n-.jpg.a5b5c10228a3e5edb0ade77e61664d43.jpgEVWlyztWkAESEdK.thumb.jpg.1304a478b765e294ba72b037a542e48d.jpgEVVvn_cXYAAC9V9.thumb.jpg.dfcc74a9d7a9dad93132ff87a348245c.jpg

 

It wouldn't hurt for you to have a radar app on your phone. I HIGHLY recommend Radarscope. It is a $9.99 one time purchase, but a very, very good radar app. I use Radarscope Pro on my android devices. On my laptop and other computers I use GRLevel 3 and GRLevel 2A as well as GREarth. 

Before I save this, here is the current look at the genesis of our severe weather, one without the Severe Weather Risk areas and one with. 
Snap346064698.thumb.png.d013d6628f00965527ba47e2d0623ef2.pngSnap346064699.thumb.png.51de33c8929211b18b1db71354ca2711.png

 

I will have continuous updates today, please check back here.  I think everyone becomes a storm spotter before the evening is over. We are going to need any and all storm reports that we can get today and tonight. 

I pray that everyone stays safe today and tonight. You just never know what might happen. As this starts to develop today, we will gain more and more information that will help to determine how this is going to evolve. Watches will start going up at some point and  decisions will be made regarding the risks. I've seen Day 1 Moderate Risk jump to High. Not saying that will happen here, but it would only take some small changes to intensify this event. 

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Could we see F3 or stronger tornadoes here in Franklin County? I’m extremely anxious this morning. Thanks for seeing us through this. 
 

Happy Easter. 

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2 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Could we see F3 or stronger tornadoes here in Franklin County? I’m extremely anxious this morning. Thanks for seeing us through this. 
 

Happy Easter. 

Happy Easter to you!!!

There is truly no way to know right now. At this point it is almost an hour by hour forecast. We will have to wait to see how the system starts to evolve before we know more details, and the details will be VERY fluid today. That's why I say to check back often because once it gets going, there will be rapid changes. 

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Here's the first of many Tornado Watches of the day and already two active Tornado Warnings. This is where it all begins.

Snap346064700.thumb.png.ac0a03af2cb9aaf5da8399fe01d0cbcc.pngSnap346064701.png.f91fb908b230f40ee043d71d47f46f6c.png

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It is also important to note, the storms don't know and don't care where the colors are on those risk maps. EVERYONE across north and central Georgia should be prepared for the worst. We do not know details and won't know details until this event begins to unfold. If you read the discussions above, there are specifics that have a certain amount of uncertainty such as the amount of cap and how long it will take the storms to break that cap. Other factors are well known like winds. So as this event unfolds, that knowledge will be used to predict the next hour and the next hour. In other words, it will be a constantly evolving day. 

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There is another threat that is probably being overlooked.

WPC_StateDays1-3QPF.thumb.png.e9d9814b23fb200fba4c7d27baa2fd82.png

Quote

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020
 
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2020 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2020 

...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FROM THE MID-SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...  
  
A formidable threat of excessive rainfall exists Sunday through Sunday night across northern MS/AL/GA into central and southern TN and the southern Appalachians as a strong, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave, a coupled upper-level jet structure, a broad zone of very strong low-level moisture transport, and a pool of moderate instability conspire to lead to widespread and organized heavy, convectively-driven rainfall within a burgeoning atmospheric river/warm conveyor belt circulation.  The whole system is strongly anomalous, with the strength of the mid-level systems at play 3-4 sigmas below the mean for mid-April and a surface cyclone 4-5 sigmas below the mean -- near record values for April -- from the Mid-South into the Lower Peninsula of MI.  Both Precipitable water and Integrated Vapor Transport values are near record levels for this time of year since the cyclone will drive a powerful low-level jet (approaching 80 kts) -- with effective bulk shear to match -- that will invade from the Gulf coast into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and southern Appalachians this period.  ML CAPE is likely to build towards 3000 J/kg during the afternoon hours within the capped warm sector near LA where 700 hPa temperatures are expected to exceed 9C which should boost convective potential downstream into the evening hours.  The synoptic scale system will remain progressive, which will have a tendency to cap the upper magnitude of the rainfall potential.  With concerns for episodic training of convection  along/near a warm front lifting north through the TN Valley/southern Appalachians, hourly rainfall totals are likely to max out in the 2-3"/hour range within mesocyclones, cell mergers, and periods of training.  Swaths of the Mid-South, Southeast, and southern Appalachians shows 50%+ chance of exceeding 3" of rain this period per the 00z HREF probabilities.  The 00z HREF probabilities for 5"+ maximize in southwest NC where the chances of exceedance lie above 90%.
   

 

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Funny you should post that. I was outside a short time ago and that tweet is right...it's not stormy-feeling out there at all, yet. I recall the Palm Sunday outbreak of '94, and how hot and still that morning was.

But I'm staying put today, just the same.

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Quick question.  These storms will be truckin today 60-7-mph.  Does the forward speed of a Tornadic cell have any bearing on the wind speed of the Tornado itself? Is it like the winds of a land falling Hurricane?

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Just a little something I wrote yesterday.  Maybe it will redirect your fear to hope on this Day ----      Happy Easter

Easter
Short Story by Ricky Aldridge

He is not here----He is Risen.Matt 28:6

I will never forgot that morning. All that I had believed and sacrificed for, all seem to be over. I couldn't sleep that night ,for the images of His death kept flashing before. The Cross was so final and I heard Him myself ask His Father if He had forsaken Him. It amazed me once again that His love for those who hated Him most was evident to His last breath.

His last Words of It is Finished still echoed in my thoughts and my heart. It might have been finished for Him but what about me? I was left behind to face a reality of disappointment and heartache. His presence was like healing waters and somehow strengthen me to accept His Words. When He walked in it seemed like all of Earth stood still and waited for His Voice. Such a loneliness had already possessed my spirit and heart since His death.

But that morning, OH That Morning. It started as the last few had, after a sleepless troubled night. But just as I had resolved to make the best of it there came a great shaking of the house I was in. I quickly rushed out but it was soon over. Just as I was about to go in and assess the damages Mary came running to our abode. She was so excited and there was a glow about her. In fact at the moment it crossed my mind I had seen that glow before but in my sorrowful state I just dismissed the thought.

But Mary said, "We have seen Christ and He is Risen". At her words I once again was reminded of a scene in an earlier day and the Word that had been spoken to us. But for Now I questioned her sanity. Oh Yes, She said, He is no longer in the tomb and I met Him outside and He told me to tell you!

Oh the Joy that rushed in my heart, but I quickly checked it. I saw Him die and them put Him in the tomb. I know His words earlier that He would rise again but Resurrection? Oh how I longed for it to be so but Faith was dealing with sight!

But then I saw Him. His beauty and radiance was more than I could almost take in. He was ALIVE ! The smile upon His face and kindness of His gaze made me forget all about my doubts and thoughts before. What a wondrous feeling again to be basking in His presence. I enjoyed the others as they also dealt with their hearts and feelings. It was like we did not know what to do with ourselves, what to say. We just stared and the Words He said flowed in our hearts and being and we began to understand. It all begin to take focus, His death suffering and His Resurrection.

There is no way to tell you all the stories after that. But understand, He left us again. He said He had to in order for the Holy Ghost to come and complete His work in us and in the World. So we watched Him leave, but this time it was different. I was looking up when the messenger of God ask us why were staring upward, for Jesus was coming back.

So we left there, understanding He desired to see our work done when he returned. I was not afraid no more for I knew He was with me and in me......

My story is told for you, those who were not privy to the King on this earth. A grave seems to separate you and Him from His presence. You also, like me wonder if He is there, if He is in a tomb or at the Father's hand. I am so glad to be the messenger that has ran from the tomb itself. I saw Him and He is alive for evermore. I saw Him leave again and I saw the angel who gently chided us to know HE IS COMING AGAIN.

So you also might experience loneliness, and you also may be overcome with doubts and fears. But I stand here today to urge you to take Heart. Death is defeated and He is with you evermore. I urge you to also be overjoyed and zealous of your Lord!!!!

Blessings from the Father

Maranatha

Simon Peter......

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6 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Quick question.  These storms will be truckin today 60-7-mph.  Does the forward speed of a Tornadic cell have any bearing on the wind speed of the Tornado itself? Is it like the winds of a land falling Hurricane?

Yes it does. The tornado is tapping into the winds higher up.

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Snap346064702.thumb.png.8b36db5a0150ad66172a5419c3e2dfe8.png

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas into northern Louisiana
and adjacent portions of southern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

Valid 121218Z - 121345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

SUMMARY...
Potential for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes probably will  increase with an increasingly organized mesoscale convective system spreading into and across the Shreveport LA area by 9-10 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
The evolution of an increasingly organized mesoscale convective system continues.  This still appears to coincide with a corridor of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the north of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, and just ahead of a 50-70 kt westerly 500 mb speed maximum propagating toward the lower Mississippi Valley.

Although the boundary layer currently remains cooler and drier downstream, across much of Louisiana into the Ark-La-Tex, increases in surface dew points already appear underway, and more substantive boundary-layer warming and destabilization probably will commence with daybreak.  

At least a couple of severe gusts have already been recorded by ASOS at Waco and Corsicana with the primary ongoing bowing segment in radar reflectivities, which is on track to reach the Shreveport LA by 14-15Z.  With the latest Rapid Refresh suggesting southerly 850 mb flow in the process of strengthening to 40-50 kt across the upper Texas coastal plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, the potential for severe wind gusts should continue to increase given boundary-layer destabilization.  Coupled with a strengthening convective cold pool, the potential for a few tornadoes with intensifying mesovortices along the gust front may also increase through mid to late morning.

 

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