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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 12-13 Severe Weather Event

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Just now, LHarkins913 said:

Wow. I’m so glad I finally downloaded RadarScope... this is Texas rn, almost to Louisiana... 

011869DF-8624-4474-A78B-376A73568641.png

-111 mph...

How is that possible, or am I just not understanding it?

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2 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

-111 mph...

How is that possible, or am I just not understanding it?

In velocity radar, red is winds going away from the radar itself, green is towards. I think what we’re seeing here is an actual tornado on the ground 

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Just now, LHarkins913 said:

In velocity radar, red is winds going away from the radar itself, green is towards. I think what we’re seeing here is an actual tornado on the ground 

Oh... I see...

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

Oh... I see...

Truly fascinating stuff. (Also feel free to correct me if I’m wrong Steve lol) 

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Glenn Burns just said on Facebook that parameters In Ga are now like 2011. I was under the impression that was not so?  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Glenn Burns just said on Facebook that parameters In Ga are now like 2011. I was under the impression that was not so?  

 

 

It's not. Glenn likes to be dramatic. It is still very bad and in the territory of many of our historic outbreaks but STPs were literally way off the charts by that afternoon. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It's not. Glenn likes to be dramatic. It is still very bad and in the territory of many of our historic outbreaks but STPs were literally way off the charts by that afternoon. 

Will they go off the charts today?...

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11 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Will they go off the charts today?...

They are in Alabama and Mississippi but for now they are below 10 here in GA, but still very high significant numbers. Anything over a 1 or a 2 bears watching and we are seeing 8+ as the main event crosses late overnight. 

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Well happy Easter all! This is going to be a long day, my husband and I are in Marietta with my parents in Rome so looks like we'll have a lot to be concerned about. Next house is definitely going to have a basement as I'm about to pack our downstairs powder room full of blankets and pillows just in case. 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm back... 🙂 had to get a shower. 🙂 You didn't want me stinking the place all day did you? 🤪

 

E-Smells, lol. Also, not sure if you saw my edit earlier. When you said after midnight, did you mean start or end?

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Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2020

.UPDATE...

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FCST AS IT LOOKS LARGELY ON TRACK. WITH AMPLE FORCING AT WORK AHEAD OF THE POTENT SYSTEM, EVEN SOME OF THE SMALL ZONES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAVE TAPPED INTO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE HAD ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE LINGERING WEDGE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING AN AREA OF CONCERN WITH POTENTIALLY FOCUSING SOME  STRONGER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY  EVEN FOR STORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES SOME INCREASING STP VALUES BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OR ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL EVEN BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE AND JET DYNAMICS RAMP UP FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT EXPECTED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

SPC HAS EXTENDED THE DAY 1 MODERATE RISK INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN CWA AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS, THE GRADIENT  WINDS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF THE WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS  AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO  CONTINUES FOR AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

 

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4 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

E-Smells, lol. Also, not sure if you saw my edit earlier. When you said after midnight, did you mean start or end?

Roughly the time when the parameters peak, you have it before and after

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Roughly the time when the parameters peak, you have it before and after

Okay, thank you, so after midnight it should, hopfully, begin to slowly stop?

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3 minutes ago, Tanith said:

Wow. Just wow. Are those colors normal?

The darkest colors are extremely cold cloud tops. The cells over northern Louisiana are reaching 50k feet right now.

 

GR2A - 20200412-KSHV_1519_BR_0.3-1519.png

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

Okay, thank you, so after midnight it should, hopfully, begin to slowly stop?

It maybe more like 2 for you but we truly don't know those details yet

 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It maybe more like 2 for you but we truly don't know those details yet

 

Understand, I am just trying to remember that, just because the STP in my general area is high, it doesn't mean a tornado will hit my specific neighborhood. It could, but no Guarentee, right?

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Snap346064708.thumb.png.c9c3f5471f063ae6c91dd82ab7baa5b3.png

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern LA...northern/central MS...and far southeastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 121524Z - 121700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...
The severe threat will markedly increase by this afternoon, with strong tornadoes, numerous damaging winds, and large
hail all likely. A tornado watch will be required across northern/central MS and northeastern LA shortly.

DISCUSSION...
The airmass across northeastern LA into central MS downstream of a QLCS in northern LA is rapidly destabilizing. A warm
advection wing of elevated convection has developed across this area as a marine warm front continues to lift northward. Surface
dewpoints are expected to quickly increase into the upper 60's to lower 70's along/south of the northward-advancing warm front as a strong low-level mass response occurs over the ArkLaTex region this afternoon. With continued diurnal heating, MLCAPE should increase into the 1500-3000 J/kg range by peak afternoon heating. Very strong shear is forecast to be present from low through mid levels, which will support robust storm organization both with the ongoing QLCS and with any cells that can form farther south/east across the open warm sector. Latest VWP from KDGX (Jackson, MS) shows substantial low-level hodograph curvature, with 0-1 km shear approaching 50 kt, and 0-1 SRH around 500 m2/s2. Strong tornadoes may occur given the
strength of the low-level flow, along with numerous damaging winds if the storm mode remains mostly linear. There is still some
uncertainty regarding supercell potential across northern/central MS this afternoon. If any storms can form farther south/east of the  ongoing QLCS, they will encounter a strongly unstable and sheared environment favorable for all severe hazards.

 

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13 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Understand, I am just trying to remember that, just because the STP in my general area is high, it doesn't mean a tornado will hit my specific neighborhood. It could, but no Guarentee, right?

Correct. You have a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you. That also means you have an 85% chance of not seeing a tornado within 25 miles. 🙂 It's all how you look at it.

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I’m sitting here just watching tornadoes pop up like popcorn all over LA on RadarScope. Absolutely insane. I pray everyone in the paths is safe... 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Correct. You have a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you. That also means you have an 85% chance of not seeing a tornado within 25 miles. 🙂 It's all how you look at it.

Uhm... hehe, 85 + 10 = 95... is the last 5% invisible? Lol

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7 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Uhm... hehe, 85 + 10 = 95... is the last 5% invisible? Lol

I should have typed 90% not 85, corrected. That's what the maps are for

905834545_SPC_TP_Day1State(2).thumb.png.d66e28e127dd03c9aea74511669ad08c.png

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