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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 12-13 Severe Weather Event

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Just now, Asperman1 said:

Sadly, that must mean some people have gone to a better place too... 😞

Not always.  Many times we don’t hear of any deaths. It is bad damage occurs but things can be replaced. 

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Just now, RickyD said:

Not always.  Many times we don’t hear of any deaths. It is bad damage occurs but things can be replaced. 

I hope nobody does, but it is sadly likely in these situations

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Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern LA...far southeastern
AR...and central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...

Valid 121703Z - 121830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong tornado potential is increasing across northeastern
LA into central MS early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple tornadic circulations producing TDSs have recently been observed with a QLCS advancing rapidly eastward across north-central into northeastern LA. The VWP from KDGX (Jackson, MS)
shows a very strongly sheared low-level wind profile. Over 80 kt of southwesterly flow is being estimated around 3 km AGL, with around 70 kt of 0-3 km shear present. A corridor of greater severe potential, including the possibility of strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds, will likely be focused through the early afternoon from parts of northeastern LA into central MS ahead of the QLCS and to the south of a northward-developing warm front. Embedded circulations within the line, or a supercell or two developing on
its southwestern flank, will pose the best potential for strong tornadoes given the very favorable low-level shear (0-1 km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2).
 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Is this just straight line winds? It seems too broad to be a tornado

A4DBB743-33A2-4603-8111-E9D39609AA23.png

Form the Jackson radar, it is roughly 70 miles to Lake Providence. At that distance, the Jackson radar beam at its lowest tilt is 6000 feet over Lake Providence. So up around the 800 mb level maybe. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Form the Jackson radar, it is roughly 70 miles to Lake Providence. At that distance, the Jackson radar beam at its lowest tilt is 6000 feet over Lake Providence. So up around the 800 mb level maybe. 

Gotcha! Makes more sense. I’m still learning how to read these various maps(and unfortunately today is perfect opportunity to see it in action.) thank you Steve.

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4 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Gotcha! Makes more sense. I’m still learning how to read these various maps(and unfortunately today is perfect opportunity to see it in action.) thank you Steve.

My GRLevelx (all of them) applications tell me distances and elevations. Plus there is a side panel I can turn on that has other things to play with.

Snap346064715.png.04d488edb74c655eaffa995947bf59c8.png

 

At the bottom I see this.

Snap346064716.png.035b6ddb41ef70d46c0d536b99523869.png

 

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Lighting data, the colors show how old the strikes are. "x" is cloud to cloud, a dot is a negative, and a "+" is a positive strokeSnap346064717.thumb.png.4dbe1cf302b10998b341ae59cf62065f.png

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5 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Thunder rolling in over here in Dallas: round 1 *Ding Ding*

FIGHT

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Won't all the rain ahead of the main event work to stabilize the environment therefore reducing the CAPE which would choke off the main ingredients for a severe outbreak, especially in North Georgia where it will also be in the middle of the night so any diurnal energy would be gone, too. Or is something else going to feed the severe threat into the night?

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11 minutes ago, Nic said:

Won't all the rain ahead of the main event work to stabilize the environment therefore reducing the CAPE which would choke off the main ingredients for a severe outbreak, especially in North Georgia where it will also be in the middle of the night so any diurnal energy would be gone, too. Or is something else going to feed the severe threat into the night?

Normally that might be the case, but not with the dynamics we have with this system.

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17 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Normally that might be the case, but not with the dynamics we have with this system.

What about the temp staying lower and the lack of sunshine?

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6 minutes ago, HiTekRedNek said:

What about the temp staying lower and the lack of sunshine?

Warm front is advancing from the south. Our highest temps during the event will be after midnight tonight. 

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Knocking on the door.

mcd0356.gif.b02f3d1b32200300fb3b442305bd8c58.gif

 

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Northern and central Alabama and far southernMiddle Tennessee.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 121845Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...
The severe weather threat currently over Mississippi will shift east into Alabama later this afternoon. A downstream tornado
watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...
A MCS moved across northern Louisiana this morning and produced numerous TDS signatures. This same cluster of storms has
produced a TDS more recently (~1830Z) in west-central Mississippi. This same line of storms is expected to move east northeastward into northern Alabama later this afternoon and into the evening. The airmass across northern Alabama has destabilized across the last several hours and continued moistening/warming is expected as the warm front lifts north. Therefore, this ongoing MCS is expected to maintain its current intensity and likely strengthen further as it moves into Alabama. 

A 997mb meso-low has formed in southeast AR/western MS. This has acted to locally enhance the backing of surface winds ahead of these storms. This has led to very large 0-1 SRH values near 700 m2/s2 per GWX VWP. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will continue to be a threat with this MCS as storms move eastward. However, there is a conditional threat for surface based supercells to develop south of this activity in the warm sector. If this occurs, a significant, threat would become more likely.

A tornado watch will be needed soon east of the current watch in Mississippi.

 

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Nobody answer the door and it may go away...

 

But seriously, something weird I noticed when looking at previous threads, not to the level of today, obviously, but 2 days less than a year ago, we had risk of severe weather, and that was also a Sunday

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