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Good morning!

Another fine day is in store for today and pretty much everyone should have highs in the 70's under mostly sunny skies. You can see the next system starting to form out over Mexico and Texas, and that will be our weather maker for Saturday and Sunday. 

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And that same system will be responsible for some potential severe weather on Sunday. Here's the thoughts on that from the Storm Prediction Center:

Quote

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

  • THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are likely Sunday across the Gulf Coast states. The greatest threat appears to be from Louisiana to Georgia, with significant severe storms expected including tornadoes and damaging winds. Large hail is likely as well.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough with 60-70 kt mid-level speed max will move from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley during the day, and will reach the East Coast by 12Z (8 AM) Monday. Preceding this trough, a broad area of 50 kt mid-level westerlies will exist across the entire southeastern CONUS.

   At the surface, mid-to-upper 60's F dewpoints will surge north behind a warm front, located roughly from southern AR to central MS, AL and GA by 18-21Z (2 PM - 5 PM). Meanwhile, a dryline will develop eastward across TX, with a weak surface low near the ArkLaMiss by 00Z. As the shortwave trough approaches, southwesterly 850 mb winds will increase to 30-40 kt during the day, and over 50 kt after 00Z. This will result in an expansive area of favorable moisture, instability and shear, with  numerous severe storms possible through the period.

   ...East TX to GA and SC...
   Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over northern MS and AL related to warm advection. These storms may pose a hail threat initially. With time, these storms may transition to surface based, with an evolving threat of damaging winds or tornadoes from AL into GA coincident with a 300+ m2/s2 ESRH max.

   To the west, other storms are likely early to midday over eastern TX, but storm mode is uncertain. Given the increasing lift, especially after 18Z across LA and MS, an MCS will be possible. In addition, supercells, possibly tornadic, may form ahead of any MCS over LA and MS. The general model trend is for upscale growth, and this could be a combination of storm modes. At any rate, tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail will all be possible.

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This system doesn't have quite the same dynamics as the last system and the main threat will be down over central and south Georgia this time. 

For a more detailed look at Georgia, here's the Atlanta NWS
 

Quote

As the extended period begins, an upper level shortwave and an associated surface low positioned near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles will be pushing towards the southeastern CONUS. Deep southerly flow ahead of this shortwave and behind surface high pressure to the east of Georgia will allow for the advection of warm and moist Gulf air into the forecast area. The surface low is expected to lift a warm front northward into Georgia during the day on Sunday, before the low itself traverses through the forecast area Sunday night and early Monday. Isentropic lift in advance of the warm front will allow for showers and some elevated thunderstorms to spread into the forecast area Sunday morning. Precipitation will progressively become heavier and more widespread during the day Sunday as the system approaches. Dewpoints are expected to quickly climb into the upper 60's in central Georgia and upper 50's in north Georgia by Sunday night. Precipitable water values will similarly be on the rise throughout the day on Sunday, reaching values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches by Sunday night.

A low cape/high shear environment is anticipated ahead of the approaching low. Instability values associated with this system are expected to be fairly modest, with SBCAPE and MLCAPE values both between 500-1000 J/kg. However, 0-1 km shear values are expected to range from 30-40 kts and effective deep layer bulk shear is expected to range from 55-65 kts. SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 are also possible during the evening and overnight hours. While some discrete cells are possible during the daytime Sunday ahead of the approaching surface low, a primarily MCS/QLCS convective mode will be favored ahead of the surface low and a cold front extending from the low move through the area Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Widespread rain chances and the highest chances for strong to severe thunderstorms in north and central Georgia are expected during that time. Damaging wind gusts and a few brief tornadoes will be the primary threats associated with any severe thunderstorms that occur.

Considering the deep moisture and high precipitable water values, persistent and heavy rainfall is also anticipated from Sunday afternoon through the early morning hours on Monday, particularly across central Georgia. Forecast rainfall totals are continuing to trend higher and are expected to range from 1.25 to 2 inches across the far northern tier and 2 to 3.5 inches along and south of the I- 20 corridor, with the highest amounts in west-central Georgia. Some locally heavier amounts are also possible in where stronger convection is able to develop, which may lead to some flooding concerns in those areas.

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Right now, the WPC rainfall amounts look like this.
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So a chance of showers during the overnight hours tonight with increasing chances as we head into Sunday and the first part of next week. As we get closer to Sunday well fine tune the locations and expectations for the severe potential. 

We made it up to Gibbs Gardens yesterday and it was absolutely beautiful. I took a bunch of pictures and thought I'd share them with you.
Here's the link: https://photos.app.goo.gl/tihMcKsiV2mXeAAw9
And the link to Gibbs Gardens: https://www.gibbsgardens.com/

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I hope everyone has a fabulous Friday! 🙂

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18 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Thank you. The new forecast for us in Franklin County looks a bit better.

Yes, shouldn't be bad for you.

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This is Saturday and Sunday temperatures. Pay attention to Sunday. Those temps across north Georgia are not conducive to tornadoes. 

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This show the Supercell Composite from 2 PM Saturday through 1 AM Monday. The force is strong. 💪

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That's not to say that there won't be a lot of shear and helicity, so the lack of low CAPE and high shear means there is always a chance of a quick spin up tornado, but that threat is primarily central and south Georgia. 

The upper level winds are strong like the last event but don't extend quite as low as before. The are 4 PM Sunday

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3 minutes ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

It looks like he means to say that next Thursday is setting up for the potential of severe weather.

There will be another chance, but it is really too far in advance to focus on. Once we get past Sunday we'll start taking a look at that one. 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

There will be another chance, but it is really too far in advance to focus on. Once we get past Sunday we'll start taking a look at that one. 

I agree, which is why it's weird Glenn Burns is already putting it out there. He won't talk about snow until flakes are already falling!

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1 minute ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

I agree, which is why it's weird Glenn Burns is already putting it out there. He won't talk about snow until flakes are already falling!

You can't get hyped up about events a week away, and that's what he does. 

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