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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, April 23

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Tornado  Watch

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Florida Panhandle
  Southern Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1055 AM
  until 500 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over southeast Alabama
will track eastward today across the watch area.  Locally damaging
winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats with this activity.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Marianna FL to 40
miles northeast of Waycross GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

 

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Round 2 initiation is beginning in MS. Dewpoints and temps are on the increase, let's see how much surge the warm air has.

1354296754_GR2A-20200423-KGWX_1507_BR_0.5-1507.thumb.png.6e388dd0318d996f8fea43bbd41496a2.png

 

Tempstemp.thumb.png.d9c47e994ebed9b89bb7c67978621e84.png

 

Dewpoints
dew.thumb.png.c33599ee6a3d71cc28dfe2a8716e5f83.png

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*** ALERT ***
Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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I have my doubts about much severe weather later (for most of north Georgia), I just don't think we're going to see much if any recovery of the atmosphere that would make that possible. 

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32 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I have my doubts about later, I just don't think we're going to see much if any recovery of the atmosphere. 

I thought the recovery is what we don’t want to see? 

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23 minutes ago, Cay said:

I thought the recovery is what we don’t want to see? 

I have my doubts about (severe) later. I need to use more words. 🙂

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The Enhanced area is fading away.

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is there a timing for the "second wave". I think its too cold to do anything to  be honest and just the gut feeling.

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6 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

is there a timing for the "second wave". I think its too cold to do anything to  be honest and just the gut feeling.

 

31 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I have my doubts about (severe) later. I need to use more words. 🙂

Thanks. I just was making sure I understood. Don’t you close tomorrow? You will need a few dry days to move! 

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NWS Atlanta

Quote

Difficult forecast for today. Large shield of stratiform rain with a few thunderstorms continues to push off to the SE. Pretty big dilemma with the forecast today with two main questions:

  1. Will the CWA recover enough for late afternoon/evening thunderstorms?
  2. If so, what is the potential for severe weather?

Warm front pretty well depicted across the panhandle of Florida. Dewpoints along the coast are in the 60's, with lower 70's just
offshore. Back across MS/LA, dewpoints have begun to surge into the 70s. Do think the warm front/warm sector will surge northward today, but not confident on exactly how far north the boundary will make it. BL winds have backed off a bit across northern GA in the 12z models...inferring that the boundary may not make it much north of I-20. This makes sense as the airmass north of I-20 has been fairly well stabilized with the morning convection and the wedge intensified.

What is not being handled well in the short term models is the convection currently developing across the northern Gulf, surging
NE. If this activity continues to surge NE and the atmosphere across portions of central and southern GA recovers, late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be likely - with the potential for severe weather. However, coverage of strong/severe
storms will be less than earlier expected.The main hazards would be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

If the activity across the northern Gulf ends up hugging the coast, the CWA would likely be cut off from any widespread
thunderstorm/severe weather threat.

 

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Just now, Cay said:

 

Thanks. I just was making sure I understood. Don’t you close tomorrow? You will need a few dry days to move! 

May 1... 🙂 Yes, we'll need time to move from the house here AND two storage buildings plus finish getting this current house for sale. Lots to do for the next 4-6 weeks. 

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11 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

May 1... 🙂 Yes, we'll need time to move from the house here AND two storage buildings plus finish getting this current house for sale. Lots to do for the next 4-6 weeks. 

We just did that right before everything shut down in March. Will send prayers. We still haven’t found the remote so no Netflix or Amazon. We are going to purchase another, but keep thinking the next box surely! 

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1 minute ago, Cay said:

We just did that right before everything shut down in March. Will send prayers. We still haven’t found the remote so no Netflix or Amazon. We are going to purchase another, but keep thinking the next box surely! 

Exactly how it works at my house. As soon as we order a replacmemt for something that was lost, or as soon as it is delivered, we find the original

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3 minutes ago, Cay said:

We just did that right before everything shut down in March. Will send prayers. We still haven’t found the remote so no Netflix or Amazon. We are going to purchase another, but keep thinking the next box surely! 

Congrats! Where did you move to?

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Congrats! Where did you move to?

We downsized from Oxford to Covington. We want to spend more time in Murphy, NC . We stayed there til the house sold. 

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5 hours ago, Brooke said:

We're in Cobb and having a lot of power flickering too, plus have a ton of trees in our backyard. Hopefully none come down and the power stays on. 

Im on the Woodstock/Acworth line.

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Saw some red on the radar near Dawsonville, is it gonna go severe, or just some heavy rain and maybe some rumbles?

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12 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Saw some red on the radar near Dawsonville, is it gonna go severe, or just some heavy rain and maybe some rumbles?

Just thunder

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32 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Is that line that’s forming in Mississippi/Alabama going to head in our direction? Thanks 

Yes, this is it, but I don't think it will amount to much this far north.

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Of course, the SPC has increased the Tornado risk a little. 

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Quote

...20Z Outlook Update...
   Adjustments to categorical and probabilistic lines have been made in at attempt to better reflect ongoing trends concerning convective development and destabilization.

   Extensive convection progressing around the northwestern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridging, and just ahead of the base of the troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies, likely will continue to progress east of the Georgia/South Carolina coast and across northern Florida into early evening.  This activity is impeding destabilization across the Cumberland Plateau, and to the lee of the southern Appalachians, as a fairly deep (1000-1001 mb) surface low migrates across western Kentucky, toward the central Appalachians, late this afternoon and evening.  And lingering severe weather potential to the north and west of conglomerate convective outflow across southeast Georgia and northern Florida is unclear.

   Considerable model output, most prominently much of the convection allowing model guidance, indicates little signal for increasing severe weather potential along a developing frontal zone across the piedmont of Georgia into the Carolinas late this afternoon and evening.  However, the Rapid Refresh appears at least one exception, with weak boundary-layer based destabilization occurring by late this evening, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly to westerly wind fields in the 850-500 mb layer in excess of 50 kt.  This includes a transition to forecast soundings conducive to a risk for organized severe storms, including supercells (e.g. 18Z run of RAP...04-06Z at Charlotte NC).

   Recent surface analyses indicate that strongest 2-hourly surface pressure falls have become focused across the piedmont, with a gradual increase in dew points ongoing, and breaks in overcast allowing for at least some boundary layer warming, contributing to weak boundary-layer destabilization.  

   Based on these trends, there appears support for inclusion of at least low severe weather probabilities across the Carolina piedmont at this time, and trends will need to be evaluated further for the possibility of increasing severe weather potential in the 01Z Outlook Update.
 

 

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