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Good morning!

I almost forgot to do this today! 🙂 That's what happens when all the bad weather moves away and you take the weather for granted. 🙂 The severe weather didn't pan out like they thought, but I'll take a busted severe weather forecast any day. 🙂 
Taking a look at the southeast this morning, you can see that the front that brought the rain and severe weather has pushed all the way down to central Florida. There are still some light showers around north Georgia this morning, but those should clear and today should turn out to be a pretty nice day. 



We will have rain returning tomorrow, and some of the storms may bring a slight chance for severe weather. This is an excerpt from Storm Prediction Center along with the Day 2 maps. Notice we have the same caveat with the warm front as we've had the last several events. How far the warm air advances will determine where the greatest potential for severe weather will be. 


A warm front will attempt to lift northward across parts of the Southeast through the day ahead of the primary surface low. But, an earlier frontal passage will likely tend to limit the northward advance of substantial low-level moisture into northern AL/GA, eastern TN, and western NC/SC. The best forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough should exist over these areas through Saturday evening. Even with the limited low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating and cool temperatures aloft may support MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by Saturday afternoon.

   A broken line of storms will probably form over parts of middle TN into northern AL, and subsequently move east-northeastward across eastern KY/TN into northern GA and the western Carolinas through Saturday evening. Strong effective shear of 50-60+ kt attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough will be more than sufficient to organize updrafts with any storms that can form across this region. Both large hail and damaging winds appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur along and south of the warm front.

   The main uncertainty that precludes higher severe probabilities for now is the quality and northward extent of the greater low-level moisture return. Most guidance suggests only mid to upper 50s surface dewpoints will reach the most likely area of convective development. This appears marginal to support any more than an isolated severe risk. Farther east into the central/eastern Carolinas and southern VA, somewhat greater low-level moisture return may occur in a strong low-level warm advection regime Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However, the better forcing will likely be shifting north of the warm sector by this time frame, and considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage across these areas late in the period.


NWS Atlanta


Low clouds diminishing slowly over the area but they will give way to a nice day this afternoon. Expecting dry conditions today with high temps in the 70's and 80's. These dry conditions will be short lived as the next system moves in Sat. This next shortwave will trigger our next potential round of thunderstorms mainly across N GA. The models are are coming into better agreement on the timing, intensity, and overall moisture return of this next system. The Hi-res models along with the medium range ones are starting to show the best moisture return during the afternoon hours which would lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms. With decent shear and CAPE values in the 1000+ J/kg range, any storms that do form would have the potentially to reach severe limits with the main threats being lightning, hail and strong winds. SPC currently has N GA under a marginal risk area which works well with the isolated nature and uncertainty with this system.






This will most likely just be a thunderstorm event with intensity dependent on the amount of warm moist air we manage to get. 


Other than that, nothing much going on. The SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk Outlook area to our west today and that is the same system that will bring the rain for tomorrow. It will obviously loose its punch before it arrives here. 


I won't bore you with anything else... 🙂 Enjoy today and for that matter, enjoy each and every day! 🙂
Have a great Friday!




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I love how they say the warm front will "attempt" to lift northward, like it's off somewhere rubbing its palms together and going "MUHAHAHAHA".  :classic_laugh:

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1 minute ago, Tanith said:

I love how they say the warm front will "attempt" to lift northward, like it's off somewhere rubbing its palms together and going "MUHAHAHAHA".  :classic_laugh:

That could be a comic book, the Adventures of Super Wedge and his arch enemies, Warmy and Coldy, the Front Brothers

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6 hours ago, TinaTrivett said:

Should we be concerned about tornadoes tomorrow? Thanks.

Less than a 2% chance in green.


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