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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, April 29

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Good morning!

What a great day yesterday! Today won't be quite up to those standards with some rain moving in, but at least the temperatures will run back up to the mid 70's even with the rain. There is a pretty good line of thunderstorms over AK/LA/MS this morning but the most active part of the line is pushing south and not east. 

 

Storm Prediction Center

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Strong mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the mid-MS Valley into the mid-South region before shifting into the Appalachians Wednesday night. In response to a 90kt 500mb speed max, surface front will surge to a position arcing from the lower OH Valley - western TN - LA by early afternoon. However, strong convection is currently noted from AR into north-central TX and this activity will likely remain organized through sunrise Wednesday as it races ahead of the front. This band of convection will serve as the back edge of severe probs starting at 29/12z. Latest CAMs support this convection progressing to a position from central MS - southern LA - coastal Plain of TX at the start of the Day1 period. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, boundary-layer heating is not expected to be particularly strong and this should limit buoyancy within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. 

Strong winds should be the primary threat with this long-lived squall line, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the actual synoptic front over MS/AL, but the synoptic boundary should become the focus for frontal convection downstream across GA where a narrow line of storms should evolve, especially as this region will  experience some low-level heating. During the latter half of the period, a strongly forced low-topped line of storms is expected to spread across the Carolinas during the overnight hours. There is some concern that strengthening LLJ over the Carolinas could enhance the prospect for QLCS-type of event. However, at this time instability appears too low to warrant increasing severe probs. Will monitor this region for signs of greater buoyancy which could lead to stronger updrafts.
 

 

NWS Atlanta

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The focus today will be the increasing thunderstorm potential ahead of an incoming cold front. Looking to our west early this morning, an extensive convective line extends from the ArkLaTex into the mid Mississippi Valley. This line will rapidly progress southeastward through the morning hours with a general weakening trend expected as it does so. What remains of this initial convection, likely just showers, will initially enter northwest Georgia by mid-morning.

The primary strong to severe thunderstorm risk will increase through the afternoon as instability increases ahead of the surface front. Given abundant clouds from aforementioned showers, forecast instability is not particularly impressive, perhaps reaching several hundred J/kg by afternoon. However, given strong forcing along the incoming surface front as well as any interaction with the lingering boundary from morning activity, afternoon convection is expected to develop. This convection will likely eventually take the form of a line through this afternoon and evening. The primary risk will be locally damaging wind gusts given the forecast shear profile and strengthening low level jet, though a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, breezy southerly winds can be expected through the afternoon, though forecast winds will remain just below Wind Advisory criteria.

Forecast rainfall totals will be highest in the mountains where some totals over 2" would be more likely. Elsewhere, rainfall totals will generally run in the 1-1.5" range given fairly progressive movement of heaviest convection this afternoon and evening. With these forecast totals, flooding issues are not a widespread concern, though a localized risk could exist in areas with highest totals in north Georgia.

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WPC rainfall totals through 8 AM Thursday

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My time is getting a little limited right now as we are getting ready to move in the next couple of weeks. Buying one house and packing up and selling another one takes some time to do! So bear with me for a little while! To make up for it, I will promise you some really nice pictures of the view once I get settled in and get my webcams hooked up. 🙂 This is the view from the living room and is looking NE (should be great sunrises!) toward Dawsonville which is only about 10 miles away (line of sight), and on a good day like this you can see about 30-40  miles. I haven't seen the view at night but I know we'll be able to see places like Dawsonville, Dahlonega, Helen, Gainesville,  and Cumming from this view.  

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I can tell you... I will be spending most of my time on the deck. 🙂 Can you tell that we're excited! 🙂 

 

I'll have updates throughout the day as needed but I don't think north Georgia will have anything too severe. 
Have a great Wednesday!

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The next line that is beginning to form (red line) is what will end up being our potential severe weather later today.

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Any word on timing, or just a general thing like early, mid, or late atternoon?

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late afternoon to early evening.

4 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Any word on timing, or just a general thing like early, mid, or late atternoon?

 

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3 minutes ago, Cay said:

Enjoy the new adventure. It will be so worth it. 

Oh.... we can't wait!!! 🙂 I walk around with a big smile on my face. 🙂 

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Margaritas on the deck with killer views.. heaven!

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48 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Will the storms in the gulf right now, have any effect on our weather, as it’s doing for Alabama? Thanks.

Possibly, but I really think that the amount of cloud cover we get before we warm up too much is the key. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Possibly, but I really think that the amount of cloud cover we get before we warm up too much is the key. 

Do you think we will habe alot, or alittle in regards to cloud coverage?

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3 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Ok, are the outlooks drunk today? They are confusing me.

There is less confidence there will be any severe weather so the simply reduced the threat level on the Outlook. Good news for us!

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We’ve had three storms come through showing rotation. One turned into a tornado warning when it crossed over into SC. I’m a bit more concerned now than I was. 😐

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29 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes, it wasn't what they thought it might be. 🙂 

My view of the site glitched and showed an old one, like days old, or something, cause it had a bit of yellow in Texas for a little while

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Hey, don't mean to bother ya, but  what's the deal with a Special Weather Statement? I never understood why they issue those and not just warnings? We aren't even in a watch, but these storms about to slam into me keep getting these special statements issued. What's the criteria for this? And I only see these on your FB page. These won't trigger any kind of warnings over our devices will they?

Thanks!

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1 hour ago, audpogue said:

Hey, don't mean to bother ya, but  what's the deal with a Special Weather Statement? I never understood why they issue those and not just warnings? We aren't even in a watch, but these storms about to slam into me keep getting these special statements issued. What's the criteria for this? And I only see these on your FB page. These won't trigger any kind of warnings over our devices will they?

Thanks!

They issue a special weather statement for any hazards that don't quite reach advisory/warning criteria. For instance a strong thunderstorm that is hazardous but doesn't have qtr. size hail or 60+ mph winds. 

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8 hours ago, audpogue said:

Hey, don't mean to bother ya, but  what's the deal with a Special Weather Statement? I never understood why they issue those and not just warnings? We aren't even in a watch, but these storms about to slam into me keep getting these special statements issued. What's the criteria for this? And I only see these on your FB page. These won't trigger any kind of warnings over our devices will they?

Thanks!

The SPS do not trigger the phone warnings because it's not a warning. 🙂 I post those on FB because I think it's important for people to know what's going on, but sometimes it can be information overload. 

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