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Good morning!

I'll have to make an abbreviated post this morning. Tethering through a phone is not the speediest way to do this. :-) (EDIT: I've tried three times to do this so far...)

Very windy up here in the mountains today and I know some people have had a few showers around, and they aren't going away anytime soon thanks to a persistent cut-off upper level low. This would be great in the winter. ūüôā


The main concern this short term period is shower and thunderstorm chances associated with an upper level low pressure system spinning its wheels over the TN valley near the TN/GA border. The models are fairly consistent drifting the upper low toward the OH valley with time, mainly after today. A slug of moisture and lift rotating around the upper system is currently causing showers and mainly isolated thunderstorms to move across the forecast area. Overall instability is limited and the storms are elevated but still able to produce heavy rain and occasional lightning.

A surface low moving along an old front over the central to south Georgia area will need to be monitored for the potential of strong to isolated severe storms during the day today. The favored area will be east and south of MCN where daytime instability and surface convergence will aid thunderstorm development.

Lingering shower and storm chances will diminish rather quickly tonight but could develop again on Thursday, favoring N GA where the best overall instability could develop and the southern portion of central GA near where an old front will likely be.

Forecast high temperatures are running 2 to 18 degrees below normal across the area today with the largest below normal highs ENE up the I-85 and I-20 corridors. This is due to a CAD airmass that is moving over a large portion of the area today. Forecast highs on Thursday are running near to as much as 8 degrees below normal. Forecast low temperatures are running within 3 to 6 degrees of normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium.


Rain and more rain...


The long term forecast picks up on Thursday night where the cut-off low will still be spinning just to our NW. The wedge front/CAD that is currently overspreading the forecast area should begin to finally breakdown, though that will not spell an end to our rain chances. The low finally begins to lift north on Friday, bringing in a southerly flow from the gulf that will bring warm weekend temperatures and some chances for thunderstorms.

Our old friend, the cut-off low, may not be done with us yet however. The operational GFS/Euro/Canadian all show it beginning to be reabsorbed into the polar jet, but as it moves off the coast Saturday night, it interacts with the baroclinic zone there and generates a surface cyclone just off of the Delmarva. With a surface high above that over the NE CONUS, this will present another opportunity for a wedge front to move into the area. This
signal has not been consistent yet, so current forecast temperatures do not necessarily reflect this. No matter what, models show plenty of moisture and opportunities for thunderstorms at the beginning of each day early next week.


I can't wait to get my new webcam setup, but in the meantime, here are some pictures and a video I took.


Hope everyone has a great Wednesday. Hopefully by Saturday I should have everything working again.

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22 hours ago, RADARVP said:

We're kinda waiting for you to get back online. What gives?

Lack of internet. I will be starting back up today.

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