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Monday, June 1 - Start of Meteorological Summer!

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Good morning and welcome to "my" summer! 🙂 I say "mine" because most people follow the astronomical date which is June the 20th this year, but I just have to be different. 🤪 Meteorological seasons make it easier to manage weather data because the dates are always constant unlike astronomical seasons. 

We have some high clouds around this morning but we should still end up with a mostly sunny day with breezy conditions, and that weather will continue through most of the day on Wednesday. After that, rain returns to the forecast and what we see later in the week may partially depend on what disturbance 93L decides to do. Here's a look at the area of disturbed weather over Central America this morning.

 

National Hurricane Center

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Looking at the Euro probability maps, we see these chance for a tropical depression.

eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_168.thumb.png.33fb4c44c17af4430d96af80bf7c5cb8.png

 

This for a tropical storm
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_gulf_168.thumb.png.549cfdb13518632d3d12b0a9cff41d43.png

 

And this for a hurricane
eps_tropcyc_prob_64_gulf_168.thumb.png.c7536ab220d239c0cc9b46224de4df63.png

 

The overnight Euro ensemble run appears to have a majority of its members bringing the storm into the Gulf as a hurricane.

eps_GULF_current.thumb.png.fc55ac115f53c42786597dfc40ed0d1a.png

 

While other models look like thisatcf-invest93l-1590991200-0991200.thumb.png.5099039190cb3d864726d1666610f962.png

 

Here's a spaghettio plot of the low pressure centers from the Euro ensembles. 

 

Most solutions take this system over LA/TX and dissipate it there. In that scenario we would likely see and influx of moisture off the Atlantic and we as the Gulf and increase our rain chances and all of this depends on how long 93L decides to wander around in the Gulf. 

You still have 3 days of nice weather before any rain returns, so get out and make the best of it while you can!
Have a great Monday!

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ecmwf-deterministic-se-pwat-1590969600-1590969600-1591790400-40.gif

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A variety of solutions between the Euro ensemble members. These depict normalized MSLP anomalies and they give a good visual of the strength of the low pressure area compared to normal pressures. 

eps_slp_sig_ens_p1_gulf_138.thumb.png.7f4f4d48914281b020f09bd0027a7530.png

eps_slp_sig_ens_p2_gulf_138.thumb.png.cedf170ae4fbb5721ed3494e80683536.png

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Any thoughts Steve on soon to be Cristobal?  Strength, direction ?  I was just wondering if it meanders a few more hours than predicted would that push it more Nward?

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Update on Tropical Storm Cristobal. A new update will be coming soon.

--------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm 

  • CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
  • THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

  • LOCATION: 19.2N 92.8W
    • ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
    • ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH...65 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENTSW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Visible Satellite Image

Snap346065282.thumb.png.6355ab5c73f8b43929b2150b3d4bf4bc.png

 

Infrared Satellite Image

Snap346065283.thumb.png.a805e91c0e172cfd3c7077590abc42aa.png

 

Water Vapor Satellite Image

Snap346065284.thumb.png.dacf25dfb34d3487d037e1406448f5b8.png

 

Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities

174935.png.8c7fd26832748012df4edbbf3a4c7183.png

 

Earliest Arrival of TS Winds

174935_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png.dd2fb4365b78904e713e4f3fd7ac2338.png

 

The Cone174935_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.fdbb7e0364301726494b66a943c73d6e.png

 

 

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