Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good morning!

Another beautiful day is in store for today, maybe a degree or two warmer. We didn't need air conditioning at all yesterday and we kept the windows open all day. ūüôā¬†Nice.

But we have a little trouble brewing in the Gulf and this is what it looks like this morning in this infrared view. 

Snap346065278.thumb.png.924b8e2564c50eaeca8a61f8dd47c4f4.png

 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing statements for TD3.

090949_key_messages_sm.png.7c68e0f0560481782ac840e53e899040.png090949_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.43ad238867ba86bc19ca147dadea1cd5.png

Quote

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface observations indicate that the depression has become a little better organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory.  Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and 
over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning.

The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two entities merging into one system by 72 hours.  Similar to last night, tonight's model runs have again abandoned the development of a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a 
break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the depression.  By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to drop southward out of the southern plains and into the ridge weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly northward on days 4 and 5.  Until that time, the cyclone is expected to meander over the the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3 days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme 
southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan.  The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3.  It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas, which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar imagery.  After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that 
the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF models.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence.  However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

AL03_2020060206.thumb.png.7cd1713899d3e3b8e66a7967463494b1.png

 

The Euro (next three images) depicts a hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA coast. Still lots of time for changes.

1922248659_eps_GULF_current(1).thumb.png.92926518eae942559de3d38baefa7e16.png

 

eps_slp_sig_ens_p1_gulf_144.thumb.png.4940835bc8ef65b917bfc93635d343c5.pngeps_slp_sig_ens_p2_gulf_144.thumb.png.bf6dc1c90f002ac71eddb41f40e1b410.png

 

NWS Atlanta and now mentioning TD3 in their discussions. 

Quote

The weekend is where things do get a bit more interesting, as we continue to monitor the development of Tropical Depression 3 in the Bay of Campeche. Some runs of the operational models and GEFS have tended toward a solution in which the TD makes landfall and dissipates over the Mexican coastline, and then a new circulation embedded within the larger Central American Gyre emerges off the Yucatan into the Gulf and develops into a new storm which moves toward the US coastline as it is picked up by the weak steering currents of a cut-off low off the California coastline merging with a large trough over the west coast. However, a large number of European ensemble members from the earlier 12Z run instead keep the TD over water and intensify it as it begins to move northward towards the US after being picked up by the same steering current
described above. All this to say: there is certainly increasing confidence of a tropical system of some variety impacting the US towards the end of the forecast period, though the overall strength and location remains to be seen. Additionally, we are far enough out that there may be subtle mesoscale processes that impact the system or steering currents that our coarser global models may simply not be able to resolve, which could impact the track, strength, or even existence of any tropical system. The exact track (or existence) of this system will have substantial implications on what the forecast looks like Day 6 and beyond, so will generally trend away from any likely or higher PoPs until we have a better handle on it.

 

So we wait and watch. I'm still a little busy right now with trying to get the other house ready to sell and we're traveling back and forth to do that, so my normal daily watching is limited at the moment, but I will certainly keep you updated with any important information as necessary. 

I hope you have a great Tuesday!

ffc-02.png.ca909368bde8ab04f3b8104a24063baf.png

mrx-02.thumb.png.79afeb6a82bb5e472d442569808fd7ef.png

bmx-02.thumb.png.cb7756fd894f19813a8811a6b159b313.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan Maue: https://weather.substack.com/p/tropical-depression-03l-forms?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

Quote

What is alarming is the number of members of the very good ECMWF ensemble system that have red-coded tracks equivalent in central pressure powerful Category 2+ hurricane. I’d put this probability at 50% of a hurricane eventually making landfall after Sunday along the Texas Gulf Coast. It’s hard to ignore this strong ensemble signal.

But, we must pay deference to the GFS 18z which had a large hybrid system in the Northern Gulf. The wind speeds wouldn’t be all that impressive but boatloads of rain would occur with that deep-tropical plume of moisture driving north.

In conclusion, I have medium confidence in the track of this large system into the northern Gulf with preference to SW Texas following the general signal of the ECMWF ensembles. The intensity could be tropical storm to rather strong hurricane but climatology of early June would generally disfavor a high end system.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update on Tropical Storm Cristobal. A new update will be coming soon.

--------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm 

  • CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
  • THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

  • LOCATION: 19.2N 92.8W
    • ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
    • ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS:¬†40 MPH...65 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT:¬†SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Visible Satellite Image

Snap346065282.thumb.png.6355ab5c73f8b43929b2150b3d4bf4bc.png

 

Infrared Satellite Image

Snap346065283.thumb.png.a805e91c0e172cfd3c7077590abc42aa.png

 

Water Vapor Satellite Image

Snap346065284.thumb.png.dacf25dfb34d3487d037e1406448f5b8.png

 

Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities

174935.png.8c7fd26832748012df4edbbf3a4c7183.png

 

Earliest Arrival of TS Winds

174935_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png.dd2fb4365b78904e713e4f3fd7ac2338.png

 

The Cone174935_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.fdbb7e0364301726494b66a943c73d6e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 10 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



√ó
√ó
  • Create New...