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Good morning!

Cristobal is starting to pull away at an increasing pace but will still be dragging moisture across our area today and tomorrow. Notice the areas with the higher surface winds. One area east of the center and the other along the lee side of the Rockies where it is REALLY windy this morning. 




The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is positioned over central Arkansas. The storm will continue moving northwestward into the Midwest today, where it will be absorbed by a large upper level trough approaching from the Great Plains and begin to undergo extratropical transition. A plume of deep tropical moisture will spread over the area behind the remnants of Cristobal as it gets picked up by the trough, leading to an increase in dewpoints and precipitable water. Another humid and sticky couple of days are expected through the short term period, with dewpoints reaching as high as the mid 70's and PWAT'S ranging from the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Only a couple of isolated showers are ongoing across northeast Georgia as the short term period begins this morning. As more tropical moisture spreads northward across the area today, convection is expected to redevelop across the forecast area during the daytime today. Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area during the afternoon today as diurnally driven convection is maximized, with likely PoPs forecast across north and central Georgia during that time. With SBCAPE values ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, but very limited shear, widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. However, a couple of storms may become strong, capable of producing gusty winds along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. While our average QPF for this and more so Tues afternoon/evening are only 0.25-0.5" where
rain occurs, due to the high precipitable water values, isolated locations could see 1-2" of rain where stronger storms occur.
Flooding is not anticipated with these totals, but there could nonetheless be drainage issues in urban areas.

The upper level trough will lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes region and a cold front associated with this trough will then swing through the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday. The incoming cold front will enhance convective coverage, especially in the afternoon as instability increases with diurnal heating. Afternoon SBCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and modest low-level and deep layer shear in the vicinity of the front will lead to some potential for more robust thunderstorm development. As a result, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm encompasses much of the area on Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat with any severe thunderstorms that occur. Deep moisture over the area will keep the diurnal range of temperatures fairly limited today and Wednesday, with high temperatures near climatological normal's, mainly in the mid 80's to low 90's, and low temperatures 6-12 degrees above normal, mainly in the low 70's.


This morning we're stuck in somewhat of a dry slot so no rain around. The dry slot I'm talking about refers to the upper air moisture, since we still have plenty at the surface.  You can see from this precipitable water image how we are drier than the areas to our east and west. Of course drier is a relative term, as we are still running above our normal 1.30" for this time of the year.ecmwf-deterministic-georgia-pwat-1660800.thumb.png.be12b90a999df500f4a2c7e0a8c31c87.png



But those reading will increase before they drop back down and today through Thursday morning will be soupy with a chance for showers. Here a loop of the precipitable water values and notice how we dry out considerably beginning Thursday.



The simulated radar shows the widely scattered nature of the rain.



If you are a radar watcher, just know that the Atlanta radar is down for maintenance, so you'll have to pick a neighboring radar site to fill in the data. 



Otherwise, just another summer like day in Georgia! Beginning Thursday it is certainly going to feel better as the atmosphere dries out. Can't wait! 



Have a great Tuesday!





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