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Good morning!

Another rainy day in Georgia is the story for today. Not everyone had rain yesterday, but if you did it may have been a dump! I caught some storms moving down from the mountains on my time lapse videos yesterday and they certainly dropped their share of rain on some folks. 



Currently, across the local forecast area there are some light showers ongoing that should continue to push east. Some additional showers are possible through the morning hours before coverage in showers and thunderstorms increase for this afternoon and evening. In conjunction with the lingering boundary near northern Georgia, the aforementioned shortwave moving east will help provide additional lift for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Shear still looks marginal at best, but with moderate instability combined with deep moisture and PWATS forecast in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, some storms may become strong to isolated severe with the primary hazards with any storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rain. SPC also has much of the forecast area outlooked in a Marginal risk for severe storms.

While coverage should diminish some overnight, have retained at least chance pops through the overnight period into Thursday morning as that boundary lingers in the vicinity and the shortwave crosses the area. By Thursday afternoon, chances for precip will continue as that boundary continues to linger and weak perturbations move through the flow. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and evening when instability is highest.


The Storm Prediction Center has most of north Georgia in a Marginal Risk area for today, although I believe the stronger storms will remain south of us. 



A well-defined vorticity maximum over east TX early this morning and large-scale ascent associated with this feature will likely support an arcing band of storms over parts of coastal TX at the start of the period. These storms may pose an isolated wind threat this morning before they move offshore. A separate, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to develop from coastal LA/MS northeastward across AL/GA/SC today. Scattered to potentially numerous storms should develop across the Southeast along/south of a weak, stalled front as lift attendant to this secondary vorticity maximum overspreads this region. Diurnal heating should act to steepen low-level lapse rates and support at least weak  destabilization ahead of this convection. Somewhat enhanced low/mid-level flow will support some storm organization, with multicell clusters/small bowing segments likely becoming the dominant storm mode with time. Strong to potentially damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection as it moves generally eastward from the Gulf Coast states into GA/SC and southern NC this afternoon.


Even though there is a wind threat associated with these storms, it is very slight.


Rainfall amounts through 8 PM Friday look like this across the southeast. Keep in mind that if you happen to get one of the heavier storms, your rainfall amount may be higher than what you see here. 


Also note that the Euro is seeing more rain than what the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting.


On my opening page at DaculaWeather.com in the right hand column, this is displayed and automatically updated daily. It always lags a day (they have to review the data first), so what you see today is for Monday.


I was looking ahead a little bit and found something very interesting with the Euro. Sometime around next Monday, the Euro is retrograding an upper level low from the northeast back to the southeast. This is not the way upper level lows normally gravitate and it will be intriguing to see if the Euro is correct. 


Here's the time lapse from yesterday, lots of clouds and fog to start the morning, but it eventually clears out just in time for the rain to move in. 


So for today...


I hope everyone enjoys the day despite the rain! Have a great one!





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Since I'm sure you've been hearing about the Saharan dust that's coming, I thought I'd throw in my two cents worth. 🙂 Dust is coming. 

It's not unusual for the desert dust to make it here to the US and it does make for nice sunrises/sunsets, but that's about it. Here's a current view of the location. The red colors indicate dry dusty air. 



In this low level water vapor view, you can see the drier areas south of Cuba and toward the central Atlantic. 



Obviously, this greatly hinders any tropical development for the moment, but June isn't normally a busy month to start with. You'll notice that historically, almost zero storms have formed in the main development region during this time period in June. Ok... two. 🙂 

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June normally see development in these regions



July in these regions. Notice the expansion of the development area. 


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