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Good morning!

It's 4:30 AM and I just had a nice little shower pass overhead, and I'm sure that a few of you in the mountains heard/saw the same thing.  All of the showers are moving east in the west to east flow this morning. 
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For Today and Monday

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Decreasing clouds across the state this morning with isolated pockets of fog developing. So far the fog is not causing any major issues but will continue to monitor through sunrise. There are still a few showers lingering across North and South GA but they are moving east in the moist westerly flow. A few weak waves will move through this flow keeping diurnally driven Showers and Thunderstorms going through the short term. Instability indices are expected to be very similar to yesterday so expecting mainly general thunderstorms with some isolated severe storms. The best location for these storms will be mainly across Northern portions of the state today, and across North and East GA Monday. PW's stay in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range through the short term so any storms that move over an area will drop a decent amount of precip. There continues to be very little shear in this atmosphere so not looking for much in the way of a tornado threat.

Temps look to stay near seasonal norms with highs Today and Monday mainly in the 80's to mid 90's. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60's to mid 70's.

 

Precipitable water values continue to be very high, thanks to the water pump off that's hanging out over the east coast of Florida. Notice what happens toward the end of the period... yes, another cut-off upper level low wants to vacation in the south again. We must have gotten good reviews from the first one we had. 😜 

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Monday Night through Saturday

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The long term portion continues to look like a wet one with a disturbed pattern characterized by a series of impulses and one predominant upper low feature.

At the start of the long term period, this feature is poised over Illinois, but already beginning to see some impulses traverse the Tennessee valley and into the local area. This along with increased deep layer moisture should be enough to realize likely pops for the western tier of the forecast area although probably not the washout previous runs had indicated.

GFS tries to open up the low and move it south a little quicker than the ECMWF but results should be about the same as enough moisture and lift will exist to warrant continued likely to even categorical pops for the far NW zones. There is always a concern in these patterns that the environment is "too good" in that we have more overcast conditions than anything limiting instability across the area. For now though, will side with the consensus guidance and neighboring offices and high pops through the period.

Remarkable agreement for a summer time upper low system as we go through late next week and into the weekend. GFS continues to be a bit more open with low but positionally, the features are just about the same. Definitely a cold core feature with 500mb temps approaching -10C. This time of year, those values are usually good for some severe storms characterized by large hail. Again, will depend ultimately on how much insolation we can get in this pattern and resultant surface instability.
 

 

Here's a look at temperature anomalies and 500 mb anomalies for July 4th. 
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Rainfall will vary depending on the exact position of the upper level low and who gets thunderstorms and who doesn't, so the models are in general agreement but specifics we won't know for a few more days. These are 7 day rainfall totals, pick your poison. 

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This is an infrared view for this morning with dewpoints and 850 mb wind barbs. The high pressure continues to pump lots of Gulf moisture our way.

 

Today and tomorrow will be the driest days out of the next 7, but even those won't be dry. With all the moisture around, all it takes is a little heating and some impulses riding through the flow to trigger showers, so they can be expected most any time of the day or night. 

Do the best you can to enjoy this Sunday's weather!

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Had some brief showers in Dawson County this morning about 4:15 or so, and about an hour ago, there was some serious thunder but no rain with it.

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3 hours ago, Carolyn said:

Had some brief showers in Dawson County this morning about 4:15 or so, and about an hour ago, there was some serious thunder but no rain with it.

Those were probably the ones I had as well. 🙂 Where in Dawson are you located?

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.UPDATE...

Main focus is on potential for more organized quasi-linear convective potential this afternoon into evening given ridge rider setup. Current cluster of storms just north of TN Valley does have some CAM solution support to make it's way into portions of north
GA. The instability axis is in a favorable orientation to this wave for a continued track into the northern CWA as well. The Day 1 SPC Outlook update did also expand the Marginal Risk into the far north and east accordingly to this potential. Made some increased pop adjustments to go a bit later in the north and east. Increased some near term cloud coverage due to a stratus deck that
advected in from the west. 

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Steve, do you think this cluster of storms about to move through my area (Just north of Blue Ridge) will impact the severe potential later with the possible QLCS? Short term models don't seem like they're picking up on that system very well. Do you also think there is even a chance it digs south enough to clip extreme N. GA?

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Also, just excited to share with this community of weather geeks, I'll be going to Penn State this fall to get an undergraduate Certificate in weather forecasting! Can't wait to understand weather on a much deeper level!

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15 hours ago, Nic said:

Also, just excited to share with this community of weather geeks, I'll be going to Penn State this fall to get an undergraduate Certificate in weather forecasting! Can't wait to understand weather on a much deeper level!

That is AWESOME Nic! Congratulations! Sorry to see you go but thrilled to see you pursuing a meteorology degree!

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