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Good morning!

It looks like we're going to dry out a little bit today, but those rain chances go back up toward the 50% or greater chances tomorrow and stay that way through next Sunday.  

Today, we have a weak ridge in place that has shifted the winds and pushed the showers and thunderstorms to our east. The ridge is weak and flat and will continue to move east. By tomorrow we will be back in a southwesterly flow which means increased moisture and rain chances.



So looking ahead...


LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday

The long term begins with an upper level cutoff low over the New England area with a weak surface high situated over the gulf. At the surface, this translates to southwesterly flow keeping RH values high and PW values around climatological average near 1.5 inches. This low lingers in New England and acts as steering source for another low pressure system out of the northern Great Lakes which sinks south reinforced by strong ridging out west. As a result, the area remains saturated through the entire forecast period fueling the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

Dew points remain in the upper 60's and lower 70's given the southerly flow. While temperatures won't be much above seasonal hovering in the upper 80's and low 90's, heat indices will be in the upper 90's and lower 100's will be possible until the end of the weekend.

In other words, it's going to feel tropical. It looks like the wettest days will by Tuesday through Thursday, and "right now" the Euro is drying things out a little for the 4th of July weekend. I know everyone wants to know the weather for then, so I'll try to get that narrowed down a little bit today. 

Yes, we've had a bit or rain lately. Here is the last 7 days, it does not included yesterday.


But if you look at the 60 day anomalies, we're running pretty close to normal in most places, maybe a little wetter on the east side.


And this is the last 90 days. The last 90 have been just a little bit wetter. 


As far as temperatures go... here is April, May, and June (so far). These are anomalies. 





These last two images are for June and show the anomalies for highs and lows. Notice our high anomalies have been cooler than the low anomalies. That is generally due to the higher moisture content. Clouds and rain during the daytime helps to keep those temps down, while clouds and moisture at night act to keep things warmer. 



If you can, get out and enjoy today, it will probably be the best day of the week to get outside. The week won't be a washout, but you can expect to see numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evenings. 

Have a wonderful Monday! 🙂




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