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Good Tuesday morning!






Increasing clouds across the region this morning as moisture begins to increase through the short term. Showers are beginning to pop up across MS/AL and things will continue to ramp up through this afternoon and evening. Instabilities increase this afternoon so will definitely see some strong to severe storms. SPC has placed N and east GA under a marginal risk of severe today with the biggest threats being gusty winds, lightning, and hail. With moisture continuing to increase Wednesday, SPC has the entire state under a Marginal risk with the same threats. PW's today will be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, increasing into the 1.8 to 2.0 inches Wednesday. Any storms that move over an area will drop a decent amount of precip so will have to keep a close eye on our rivers and streams for some possible flooding concerns over the next few days. There continues to be very little shear in this atmosphere so not looking for much in the way of a tornado threat.






SPC Day 1 Discussion


...Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
West to northwest mid-level flow will exist today from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Carolina's. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southeastern U.S with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 70's F in the Tennessee Valley to the upper 60's F in the southern Appalachians. In response, moderate to strong instability will develop by mid afternoon across much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely to develop during the mid to late afternoon along a gradient of instability from southern Illinois southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Convection should also form along pre-existing outflow boundaries. As low-level lapse rates become steep, marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells or pulse storms.




You can see the above normal precipitable water values in this loop.


Although it won't amount to anything except to make more rain, the Euro ensemble is showing a ~30-45% chance of a tropical depression forming to our south on Saturday.


A rainy period coming up...


Wednesday afternoon and night will continue to see convective driven thunderstorms as SW flow keeps heat and moisture in the area. A weak
impulse in the upper levels will amplify the storm coverage, and while a widespread outbreak of severe weather is unlikely, thunderstorms are likely throughout the CWA. A few of these storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat. These storms will likely continue into the overnight hours.

As an upper level low sinks into the gulf on Saturday it continues to push hot humid air into the southeast, fueling afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend. The low moves over northern Florida and into the Atlantic early next week, but the southeasterly flow will continue to support convection for the rest of the forecast period.


My sunrise this morning...

At the moment, the 4th doesn't look too bad, but you can bet that can and will change before we get there. 🙂

Hope everyone has a great Tuesday!




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