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Good morning!

More summer like weather today and tomorrow as we sit in an area of relatively tranquil weather. The upper low sitting off the east coast, will slowly retrograde and start to build back to the southeast while high pressure builds to our north, and that will bring back higher rain chances starting Monday. Between now and then, we'll have a pretty decent 4th of July weekend in store.



A somewhat typical summertime airmass with potential for highly diurnal hit and miss showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
The best instability is forecast over north and west portions of the forecast area and this is where the highest pops will be, but not by a lot.

It will be a similar situation for Saturday with the best instability forecast over N and W GA giving the potential for highly diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast high temperatures are running near to about 5 degrees above normal across the area today and Saturday. Forecast low temperatures are running about 2 to 8 degrees above normal for tonight. Heat indices are running right around 98 to 102 for much of central GA today and 95 to 100 for much of the area south of the mountains on Saturday.


As we head into the start of the work week, things begin to get a little wetter for the area.  The Weather Prediction Center believes that we'll have this much rainfall between now and next Friday morning. 


A return to a more active pattern is on tap for the forecast period as ample Gulf moisture advects into the region from a broad upper low progged to track slowly NEWD across the southeast CONUS. Even by Monday through Wednesday very high PWATs of 2 inches plus will be in the regime so any scattered to numerous convection could be quite efficient with high precip rates and will need to watch increased localized heavy rain/flood potential. The low center should be shifted to the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic by late Wednesday into the end of the week, and while the deeper layer moisture may decrease across the CWA, there is still potential for weak perturbations traversing the western upper flow to aid in shower/storm potential aside from continued diurnal forcing during the day. Overall have likely to categorical pops for portions of the area each day through Wednesday, then chance pops to round out the rest of the work week. Cannot rule out some strong to isolated severe storms through the period with daily conditional instability present and aforementioned upper low vort/wave forcing.


Here's a look at the Euro 500 mb anomalies and you can see that the southeast avoids all of those nasty high pressure areas. In the summer, you don't want one of those parked on top of you if you don't like excessive heat. 


So here is the official forecast for today and tomorrow.



And that's it, short and sweet! No sense in rambling on about nothing! 🙂 I hope you have a great start to the 4th of July weekend!






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