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Good morning!

We made it to the end of the work week!

 

I have to give you something to look at, 'cause the weather leaves us with nothing. ūüôā

 

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Summertime pattern set up across the forecast area.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper trough shifts east over the Mid-Atlantic region by this evening as T.S. Faye move up the east coast toward New England.  Saturated grounds from yesterday evenings rainfall across the Atlanta metropolitan area southward into the Thomaston area is combining with light winds to develop patchy fog as well as patchy low stratus clouds across the area. Shallow moisture should lift, and dissipate rapidly after sunrise this morning.  By this afternoon scattered clouds should prevail outside of any developing showers and thunderstorms. Short term models show chance POP's at best this afternoon, with development dissipating between 8-10 pm with the loss of daytime heating.  With good daytime heating, afternoon highs mainly in the 90's.  Heat indices across central Georgia will be in the 100-105 degree range. Models showing drier air pushing into the area from the northwest beginning this evening which should keep mostly clear to clear skies overnight allowing for cooler than normal temperatures across north GA.  With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, temperatures will again climb into the lower to mid 90's.

 

On the morning map you can see the drier air (orange or rust colors) that will be making its way to our area this evening. The isobars are showing the 500 mb level, and the systems that come our way are are traveling in the direction of the line (and yellow arrow). 

Snap346065504.thumb.png.128573af60dea4cfddcc256cdaf1fa57.png

 

Looking ahead, you can see that the NW flow will bring waves of energy that can trigger showers and thunderstorms, but timing those and figuring out exactly where they are going to go is not something that can be done very far in advance.

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The first concern will be NW flow aloft and the potential for short wave energy within that flow to help spur showers and thunderstorms. NAM/GFS/European are struggling with this potential as a first wave Saturday night looks to be fizzling as it moves across the area, with the GFS/European more Gun Ho with a second wave for Sunday with the best chances favoring W GA Sunday afternoon and most of the area into Sunday night.

The best potential for Monday looks to be central GA along and south of a stationary front/trough. The question will be how far along did the upper wave progress? The European is more Gun Ho than the GFS for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

The upper ridge begins to build for Tuesday and continue to build Wednesday into Thursday. This looks to favor central GA with the best precip potential for highly diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The other concern will be Heat Indices being within a few degrees plus or minus of 100 with high temperatures in the 90's for most of the area
away from the mountains.

 

Despite the hot temperatures, there are no record highs in jeopardy anywhere across the southeast over the next 7 days, so consider what we're going to have to be fairly typical summertime weather here. 
 

Here are the high and low temperature anomalies for the month so far. Cooler than normal highs and warmer than normal temperatures are an indication of above normal moisture.

Max Temp Anomalies
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Min Temp Anomalies
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14 day Precipitation Anomalies
precip_14d_accum_per_atlanta_2020070912.thumb.png.14b42b711a39b335a59e9f2fa2d2a832.png

 

I had a GREAT time lapse of the clouds yesterday, and in case you are interested, here it is.

 

That's about it! I hope everyone enjoys the start to a great weekend!
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