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Saturday, August 1

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Good morning!

Welcome to August! I know I shouldn't, but I think of August as the last summer month for some reason. It is the month when our temperatures begin a slow fall downward and it is the 3rd most active month for hurricanes, with September #1 and October #2.



This morning Isaias is looking pretty rough and has been split in half, but I'll have more about that in the dedicated post. 



For us, we will have a patch of drier air moving through today and that is going to cause our temperatures to jump up toward the 90's.


As the short term period begins, an upper level trough and an associated surface low currently centered over Arkansas/Missouri are intensifying slowly lifting to the northeast and towards the Ohio Valley area. This system will continue along this track through the remainder of the weekend. Ahead of this system, a dry slot at the mid levels is building in over central Georgia this morning as weak upper level ridging builds in over the area. As a result of this drier air, low level clouds and fog should be patchy at best this morning, and precipitation chances will be minimized.

The relatively dry air over much of central and east Georgia will lead to a drop in dewpoints and precipitable water values. Dewpoints will drop as low as the mid-60's in portions of east-central Georgia and precipitable water values could drop more than an inch compared to yesterday, falling to as low as 1.25 inches. Convective activity today is expected to be diurnally driven in nature and confined along and north of the I-85 corridor, where there is still some lingering tropical moisture. This afternoon, PoPs range from roughly 20 to 40 percent to the north of I-85 and less than 20 percent to the south. While the potential for organized severe weather is expected to remain closer to the surface low as it passes to the north of Georgia, a few storms this afternoon could nonetheless be strong to briefly severe, and capable of producing gusty winds along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

With lesser cloud coverage and low precipitation chances, temperatures will be hot in central and east Georgia this afternoon. Highs in these locations are expected to range from the mid to upper 90's. However, with relatively dry air and lower dewpoints, heat index values should remain below advisory criteria. A return of tropical moisture is expected on Sunday as a broad upper level trough builds over the eastern CONUS, keeping most of the region in deep southwesterly flow. Meanwhile, the upper level shortwave and surface low will push into New England and Isaias will move northeastward along southeast Florida. No impacts to north and central Georgia are anticipated from Isaias through the short term period. However, weak upper-level disturbances rounding the trough and the increase moisture will allow for higher PoP's by Sunday afternoon, with chance PoP's expected across the forecast area during the peak heating hours.


Summer continues, so nothing out of the ordinary is in the cards for us right now. Highs today will look like this.



And the next 7 days of rain looks meager for many of us.



Oh the joys of summer! 🙂 For more infor in Isaias, I just did the 5 AM update. I'm not adding a lot of commentary since this storm will basically stay off the coast and not have any real effect for us here.



Hope everyone has a great Saturday!




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