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Do we have enough going on?

Oof. That 8" light brown is right over me.

Me too! I've got to say, I've lived in this area for 32 years now and have never seen flooding on a catastrophic scale. Just gonna keep my fingers crossed that the trend continues.

Posted Images

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now 
expected
, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside 
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction 
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama 
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by 
local officials.

 

035423_peak_surge.png

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I have a lot of pages regarding the tropics, but here are a few that have images etc that apply to this system, but any tropical system in general.

I have more... 🙂

 

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Sunday - 11 AM Update

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

  • SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY
  • LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 84.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been
extended westward to Morgan City.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana
from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

  • * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
  • * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

  • * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

  • * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

  • * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
  • * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

  • * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 84.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Monday night, and slow north-northwestward motion is expected Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday and Tuesday night. 

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before landfall Monday night. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 998 mb (29.48 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
  • Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
  • MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
  • AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
  • Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within 
the watch area and expected within the warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL:  Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across southwestern Florida with isolated amounts of 6 inches along that coast through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor 
flooding on rivers across west-central Florida.

Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. 

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible farther inland across much of Mississippi and Alabama with further heavy rain anticipated for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.  Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers for Mississippi and Alabama. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.

SURF:  Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

095214_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.2a4fe0a991c23dd3c9084d3f88a8694f.png

095214_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png.1c91392583a20ad87a2b7bfbdeb3d4f0.png

637179425_095214_peak_surge(1).png.987b7e8d5319882f719e7ee5e375d265.png

095214_key_messages_sm.png.876c8aa10f0f11f58e47fe1af973dee0.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I see now where Levi is mentioning a stall near landfall and possibly eastward shove towards Mobile .  Personally I desire that more.  We need rain in S East Ga. 

We could in North Georgia as well, but I'm starting to see nervous messages on my social media feed from various weather pages about excessive rainfall from Sally. We don't need it all at once, Sally, y'hear?  :P

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NWS afternoon discussion

"WPC does have portions of west central Georgia in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in this period from outer bands from the tropical system. Likely pops continue Wednesday and Thursday as Sally makes landfall and curves back towards the state. Locally heavy rainfall wording continues in the grids in areas where QPF nears 0.5 inch per 6-hours. In total, north Georgia - generally north of a line from Franklin, to Sandy Springs, to Gainesville - could see upwards of 3 inches of rain. Areas within two-counties of the GA/TN border could see 4 to isolated 5 inches. A hydrologic outlook may be issued Monday or Tuesday to address potential flooding concerns."

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Sunday, 5 pm update

Quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

  • SALLY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY
  • LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

  • * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
  • * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A slower west- 
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi coasts through Tuesday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before the center nears the northern Gulf Coast. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
  • Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
  • MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
  • Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL:  Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday 
into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the 
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week
. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some 
rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. 

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.  Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES:  The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

155249_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.260f0ed96f1d9d6dc251e7feabb9c3ee.png

155249_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png.96f5c90c19ccfb30b484d6f0aa2274a6.png

155249_peak_surge.png.4305af615feb2a68b16f5895110730c9.png

155249_key_messages_sm.png.6a0859c062f6ef2fd65f17309a71e026.png

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Running a little behind this morning, I'll have the update shortly. This is the Euro and GFS total rainfall. You can see that the exact track makes a big difference in how much rain people get. The WPC doesn't have the same attitude as the models.

gfs-deterministic-georgia-total_precip_inch-0689600.thumb.png.0e3b54d234a9bc2a1ea3ace92c36def7.png

ecmwf-deterministic-georgia-total_precip_inch-0689600.thumb.png.7ebe3f43c52c794ae5e5604d9bc97401.png

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-0689600.thumb.png.95f3f9619e19497e2c212d682a1c1e05.png

 

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Monday, 8am Update

Quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

  • SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
  • LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 87.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

  • * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
  • * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
  • * Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

  • * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
  • * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

  • * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

  • * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.  NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
  • Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
  • MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
  • Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
  • AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
  • Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
  • Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning.

RAINFALL:  Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week
. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into Friday.  Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the  west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of 
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells  are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

095754_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.4e42310f693985e95db0be382628fc46.png

095754_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png.6a371828a51539e79ef756c87e42bf0d.png

095754_peak_surge.png.d52a97ed068a3b176e6232a35e05171a.png

095754WPCERO_sm.thumb.gif.1909a16465019ae891b8033ada80e5cc.gif

095754_key_messages_sm.png.b04ead9a49bcf43047b66a4a642d29a6.png

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