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Do we have enough going on?

Oof. That 8" light brown is right over me.

Me too! I've got to say, I've lived in this area for 32 years now and have never seen flooding on a catastrophic scale. Just gonna keep my fingers crossed that the trend continues.

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19 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I'm not sure what Cranky's shtick is with always doing this but man is it annoying given how good he is at everything else. 

 

He gets his attitudes, especially if he's wrong. 🙂 He needs a Snickers. 🙂

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Monday, 5 PM Update

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

  • SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT
  • LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

  • * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
  • * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
  • * Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
  • * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

  • * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A northward turn is expected by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
  • Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
  • Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
  • AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
  • Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area this evening.

RAINFALL:  Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolina's. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.  The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana.

SURF:  Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 16 2020 - 12Z Thu Sep 17 2020 

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF ALABAMA AND INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA

2030 UTC Update...

Changes to the Day 3 ERO were made based on the latest NHC track guidance for what is now Hurricane Sally. In terms of the 12Z guidance, still quite a bit of spread in terms of Sally's track and associated heavier rainfall. Specifically in terms the globals, the GFS remains on the faster edges of the guidance spread, while the ECMWF remains the slowest. The CMC was utilized, although shifted to the right (east) a bit to match up with NHC's track.

The notable change to the Day 3 ERO was the extension of the Marginal Risk area into northern GA, based on the guidance trends.

 

Previous 0830 UTC Discussion... 

...Central Gulf Coast to the Southern Appalachians...
After Tropical Cyclone Sally makes landfall across the central  Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, the storm should gradually start to 
gain forward speed as it makes a rather abrupt turn to the  northeast across Alabama.  Very heavy rainfall will continue to  remain a problem during the Day 3 period, especially during the 12Z (8 am)Wednesday to 00Z (8 pm) Thursday time period.  The majority of the rain is expected to fall to the east of the center's track, and this results in a likely swath of 4 to 8 inch rainfall totals, with isolated 12 inch totals, extending from extreme southeast Mississippi to central Alabama.  The latest QPF from WPC is an eastward adjustment owing to changes in the official NHC track, and also follows the eastward adjustment seen in the 00Z model guidance suite.   

There remains a fair amount of model spread regarding the main QPF axis, with the GEFS mean on the northwest side of the guidance, and the NAM well to the southeast and keeping the storm just inland from the coast.  Although the UKMET is displaced to the east regarding the track, its overall depiction of the QPF swath appears reasonable, with portions of the southern Appalachians potentially receiving heavy rain by the end of the Day 3 period.  To account for this, the Slight Risk area was extended to extreme southwest North Carolina, and the Moderate Risk extending from Mobile to near Anniston, Alabama.  Future revisions to these risk areas are likely over the next couple of days as the models are able to better resolve the differences in placement.

 

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Monday - 8 pm Update

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

  • OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
  • LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning.  A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum  sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  
Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is  expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).  A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

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What types of impacts can we expect here?  I see it looks like lots of rain.  Will it be gusty as well?  I always love getting Hurricane remnants, only this time we are moving back into our home that we lost to fire and the timing isn’t great for us.  😢 We have to be out of our rental by Sunday. Also, they are trying to finish last minute things, so if deliveries or inspections get delayed, we have a problem.  😬

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19 minutes ago, Sara said:

What types of impacts can we expect here?  I see it looks like lots of rain.  Will it be gusty as well?  I always love getting Hurricane remnants, only this time we are moving back into our home that we lost to fire and the timing isn’t great for us.  😢 We have to be out of our rental by Sunday. Also, they are trying to finish last minute things, so if deliveries or inspections get delayed, we have a problem.  😬

Mainly just lots of rain, but it will be breezy. I don't expect high winds but I would think we'd see winds possibly approaching a Wind Advisory, especially for the higher elevations.

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2020

  • HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HURRICANE SALLY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SALLY, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES, AND MAY INCLUDE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
AT THIS TIME, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL END UP. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

.ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SOILS HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO HOPEFULLY ALLOW FOR SOME INITIAL WATER ABSORPTION AS THE HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WILL CREATE RUNOFF ISSUES QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER NORTH GEORGIA.

.IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS NEXT RAIN EVENT, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, MINOR  FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS SET UP AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CAN ALSO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF SMALLER, FAST-RESPONDING CREEKS. OVER URBAN AREAS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN OVERWHELM OR CLOG STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES WITH DEBRIS. TAKE TIME AHEAD OF THE RAIN TO CLEAR LEAVES AND DEBRIS FROM THESE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. 

.ACTIONS...
STAY ALERT TO CHANGING FORECASTS. THE PREDICTED AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. KNOW WHAT COUNTY YOU ARE IN AND THE NAMES OF RIVERS AND CREEKS IN YOUR AREA. DON'T BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD. TAKE ACTION IMMEDIATELY IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED BY GOING TO HIGHER GROUND, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE NEAR OR IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA OR NEAR A CREEK OR SMALL STREAM.
 

 

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WPC Day 2 and 3 Excessive Rainfall Discussion

Day2

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 16 2020 - 12Z Thu Sep 17 2020 

  • THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE  WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...Central Gulf Coast to the Southern Appalachians...
After Tropical Cyclone Sally makes landfall across the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, the storm should finally start to 
gain some forward speed as it makes a sharp turn to the northeast across central and southern Alabama.  Extremely heavy rainfall 
will continue to remain a problem during the Day 2 period, particularly across southwest Alabama where rainfall totals in the 8 to 12 inch range with isolated higher totals are currently expected.  The majority of the rain is expected to fall to the east of the center's track, and the models are in good agreement in indicating this type of structure, along with intense feeder bands to the east of the main QPF core where repeated rounds of convective training are likely to exist with rainfall rates in excess of two inches per hour.  The latest QPF from WPC is a slight eastward adjustment owing to changes in the official NHC track, and follows the latest trends in the 00Z model guidance suite.  

There remains a fair amount of model spread regarding the main QPF axis, with the CMC on the northwest side of the guidance and the GFS a bit faster, and the UKMET and to a lesser extent the NAM well to the southeast and keeping the heaviest rain over southeast Alabama and even southwest Georgia, owing to a sharper turn to the east-northeast.  The main difference resides with the 00Z ECMWF that has the hurricane dropping anchor just off the coast for much longer than the other guidance, with much less in the way of significant rainfall north of the Interstate 10 corridor during the Day 2 forecast period.

To account for the latest NHC track and model trends, a broad Moderate Risk extends from Mobile and the western Florida 
Panhandle to the Interstate 20 corridor in north-central Alabama.  Portions of southwest Alabama, particularly near and just 
northeast of Mobile, are borderline for a High Risk, but given the lingering model uncertainties and past revisions to the excessive 
rainfall outlook over the past two days, it is prudent to hold off on High Risk for this forecast cycle.  However, there is a good chance that an upgrade to High Risk may become warranted once the details come into better focus.

 

Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

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Quote

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 17 2020 - 12Z Fri Sep 18 2020 

  • THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Central Gulf Coast to the Southern Appalachians...
Weakening tropical cyclone Sally is expected to gradually accelerate towards the east-northeast across the interior Southeast U.S. by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.  An axis of heavy rainfall remains likely along and to the northeast of the storm's path, with some baroclinic interaction with a trough and some right entrance upper jet dynamics coming into play.  Similar to earlier in the forecast period, the GFS and the CMC are farther north with the QPF axis near the VA/NC border, and the opposite holds true for the UKMET and NAM that favor a more southern solution.  The main differences involve the speed of the system, with the ECMWF a notably slower solution with its QPF well to the west across Alabama and Georgia, which is not favored at this time.  

A broad Slight Risk area exists from central Alabama to central North Carolina to account for the model spread, and a small 
(borderline) Moderate Risk area was introduced for northeast Georgia and northwestern South Carolina.  This region will likely 
have some orographic enhancement owing to perpendicular flow over the foothills of the southern Appalachians prior to the low center passing through the region.  This area also has slightly lower flash flood guidance values.  Maxima expected rainfall during this time should range between 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch totals possible.

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NWS Hydrologic Outlook - 5 am Tuesday

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

  • HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HURRICANE SALLY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SALLY, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
AT THIS TIME, 2 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL END UP. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE I-85 AND I-20 CORRIDORS.

.ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SOILS HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO HOPEFULLY ALLOW FOR SOME INITIAL WATER ABSORPTION AS THE HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WILL CREATE RUNOFF ISSUES QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER NORTH GEORGIA.

.IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS RAIN EVENT, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS SET UP AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CAN ALSO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF SMALLER, FAST-RESPONDING CREEKS. OVER URBAN AREAS, PERIODS OF  HEAVY RAIN CAN OVERWHELM OR CLOG STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES WITH  DEBRIS. TAKE TIME AHEAD OF THE RAIN TO CLEAR LEAVES AND DEBRIS  FROM THESE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. 

.ACTIONS...
STAY ALERT TO CHANGING FORECASTS. THE PREDICTED AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. KNOW WHAT COUNTY YOU ARE IN AND THE NAMES OF RIVERS AND CREEKS IN YOUR AREA. DON'T BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD. TAKE ACTION IMMEDIATELY IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED BY GOING TO HIGHER GROUND, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE NEAR OR IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA OR NEAR A CREEK OR SMALL STREAM.

 

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21 minutes ago, JeanPeach said:

Oof. That 8" light brown is right over me.

Me too! I've got to say, I've lived in this area for 32 years now and have never seen flooding on a catastrophic scale. Just gonna keep my fingers crossed that the trend continues.

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

WPC Day 2 and 3 Excessive Rainfall Discussion

Day2

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Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

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Shifting a little further to the south? Not that it makes much of a difference, but I'm between the 6"-7" here in Dawsonville, down a bit from earlier runs. It'll be interesting to see if the elevation differences between here and Big Canoe have an effect, but I do not believe they will.

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27 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That's a load of rain over a two day period. Hope you don't live in a low lying area. And welcome to the discussion site! 🙂 

Our house will be fine. The septic may complain slightly with that much rain in such a short period!

My workshop will need some pre-rain strategy. It tends to have "streams" running through it with heavy rains. Just have to make sure everything that matters is off the floor.

At least Saturday onward looks glorious for drying out.

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55 minutes ago, audpogue said:

What am I even supposed to do to prepare for that much rain? It's kinda too late at this point, I feel. Didn't realize it was gonna be this bad 😳

Build an ark? 🙂 There really isn't much you can do unless you live in a low lying area that is prone to flooding. 

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Steve - the lack of rain over the past eight days should help a bit, right?  I was living in NY for Andrea in 2013, it poured five inches in a day, in a combination of steady drizzle and periodic intense bands, and that was all fine.  The break between the bands provided time for drainage to happen, except for (as you noted) low lying areas that are always flood prone.

We had a few focused storms here over the summer that pummeled my area in a brief timeframe; I think as long as the intensity remains below that and gives everyone breaks between the bands to drain out, seven inches over a day and a half would be very wet and periodically floody, but manageable for most.

If the intense rain had tracked further north, I'd have been heading to the mountains on Sat/Sun for some waterfall hunting.

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28 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Steve - the lack of rain over the past eight days should help a bit, right?  I was living in NY for Andrea in 2013, it poured five inches in a day, in a combination of steady drizzle and periodic intense bands, and that was all fine.  The break between the bands provided time for drainage to happen, except for (as you noted) low lying areas that are always flood prone.

We had a few focused storms here over the summer that pummeled my area in a brief timeframe; I think as long as the intensity remains below that and gives everyone breaks between the bands to drain out, seven inches over a day and a half would be very wet and periodically floody, but manageable for most.

If the intense rain had tracked further north, I'd have been heading to the mountains on Sat/Sun for some waterfall hunting.

Yes, and in the hydrologic outlook they mentioned that. The waterfalls ought to be ROARING!

 

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