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Do we have enough going on?

Oof. That 8" light brown is right over me.

Me too! I've got to say, I've lived in this area for 32 years now and have never seen flooding on a catastrophic scale. Just gonna keep my fingers crossed that the trend continues.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

 

  • INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS SALLY TRACKS INLAND WEST OF THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Main focus will be with heavy rainfall and flooding potential as the area will be influenced by the outer rain bands of Hurricane Sally as it slowly tracks north and eastward after progged landfall near the MS/AL/western FL Panhandle coast early Wednesday morning. Heaviest rainfall with this system is expected late Wednesday through Thursday as it interacts with a wedge front ahead of it. See long term and hydrology discussion below for more details on amounts and flooding potential. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued accordingly for much of north and central GA (except for the far NW and parts of SE central GA) from Wed afternoon into Friday morning.

Temps will be quite limited Wednesday given the wedge and outer band rainfall filling in from the south and only have low 70's expected for most of the area.

Long term picks up Thursday where the remnants of Hurricane Sally are expected to be impacting the CWA. 12Z GFS, GEFS and NAM show heaviest rainfall likely moving over the area during this time, as the system is over Alabama and moving to the east, which would bring some of the worst impacts in terms of flooding into the area through the day on Thursday. ECMWF and its ensemble members are slower, stalling the system off the coast and bringing the worst impacts through Thursday night into early Friday. Much of this hinges on how quickly a weak trough to the west of the area moves in and begins to lift the system so that it can eventually be picked up by a front and larger upper level trough to the north, with the ECMWF being slower with this than the other guidance. Unfortunately this does add some uncertainty into the forecast, and have tried to account for that in the grids to a degree. Confident that we will definitely see some heavy rain on Thursday regardless of these solutions, so continuing with categorical PoPs in this time period. What is less certain is how quickly this will end, which is tied to the system moving past us, and whether or not we will continue to see some rainfall on the backside of the system until the cold front slides in on Saturday. Will continue to maintain some PoPs Friday night into Saturday to account for this.

What is becoming increasingly certain, however, is that we will see a heavy band of precipitation move across the area just ahead of the system that will likely dump several inches of rain. The current thinking is that this area of heavy rain will likely set up along the I-85 corridor and include most of the Atlanta metro as well as Athens and possibly Columbus. We are expecting to see rain totals over the next few days in excess of 3-4" and possibly wide areas of upwards of 5-6", with even higher pockets possible. This much rain will mean that many areas will become susceptible to flash flooding with any stronger downpours, and we will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch as part of the afternoon package for portions of the CWA.  River flooding will also have to monitored, as even though much of our vegetation remains active and able to help absorb water, we will likely still have substantial run-off. The position of this band of heavy rainfall will have substantial implications for just how much rain an area is likely to receive, with the potential for sharp cutoffs around it. Some guidance (such as the UKMET) has been further south with the overall track of the storm, which would shift this band further south as well. Please stayed tuned to the forecast, as we will continue to update as the final track of the system becomes more clear over the next 24 or so hours.

After all this, precip begins to clear out as a cold front and associated high pressure spills into the area into early next week. This should bring a period of fall like weather into the CWA, with highs in the 70's and lows into the 50's and even into the 40's in the mountains by Sunday and Sunday night. This forecaster is definitely looking forward to opening the windows and letting the fresh air in. 

 

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I woke up at 3 am to find Sally showing out as she made her approach to Gulf Shores.  105mph with reports of surface winds estimated at 120 by mobile Doppler radar.  I have a lot of kin who live in Baldwin county where I was born and my parents are buried. 
I was there in 2004 and rode out Ivan.  Nasty night for one of the prettiest stretch of beaches.  Gulf shores-Pensacola

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2 hours ago, RickyD said:

I woke up at 3 am to find Sally showing out as she made her approach to Gulf Shores.  105mph with reports of surface winds estimated at 120 by mobile Doppler radar.  I have a lot of kin who live in Baldwin county where I was born and my parents are buried. 
I was there in 2004 and rode out Ivan.  Nasty night for one of the prettiest stretch of beaches.  Gulf shores-Pensacola

 

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