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Good morning!

Got wind? It's been really windy here overnight and it's probably going to get a little worse before it gets better. But man... it FEELS like FALL this morning. ☺️ I'm in the upper 50's right now with 15-20 mph winds and it's COOL! Sally is making landfall as I type. My sister is staying down at Navarre Beach in Florida

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She's the red dot. They are 14 stories up so there has to be a little swaying going on. 🙂

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I was checking on the 925 mb winds from Sally and it is a little concerning for the higher elevations. The 925 mb levels will drop below 2500 feet in advance of Sally which means those elevations and higher could see 40-50 mph wind gust. This is certain something that will need to be watched, especially after the soils become saturated.

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And speaking of saturated. While the rainfall totals are the 8" we were seeing to start with, they are still excessive. This is the WPC forecast.

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Just to show you, this is the official NWS forecast. Notice the three forecast offices (Atlanta/Birmingham/Huntsville) differ a little in their thinking. I believe that has been rectified in the new run that is now coming out.ndfd-conus-georgia-total_precip_inch-0473600.thumb.png.96512954652d7ba284fb045d21100f31.png

 

So the near term looks like this.

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Current radar mosaic shows Hurricane Sally about to make landfall near Mobile Bay with outer rain bands extending eastward across the FL Panhandle and into south and central GA. The main focus this forecast period will be Sally's precipitation and movement across the region for the next 48 hours. The biggest issue North and Central GA will see is rainfall amounts. QPF amounts will range from 2 to 6 inch totals through Friday night with the highest amounts occurring along a line from Columbus to Athens. The swath of higher amounts has pushed a bit further south than earlier
thinking but the amounts are still the same. With this in mind will be adding a few more counties across east central GA into the Flash Flood Watch. The heaviest rainfall with this system is expected to begin moving into west central GA by 00z (8pm Tuesday) Wed and continue northeastward across the state through 00z (8pm) Thu. Winds will stay out of the East to Southeast with speeds expected in the 10-15 kt range with gust to 25 kt. Temps will be quite limited today and Thursday with highs mainly in the 70's. Lows tonight will be in the 60's.

 

Hydrology

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Although there continues to be a decent degree in uncertainty with the location and amounts of total rainfall as Sally impacts the area, the trends in the models over the last 12 hours have been slightly lower. At this time, potential amounts range from 2 to 6 inches, with the highest totals centered along a line from Columbus, to Griffin, to Madison, to Athens. With this shift in the highest totals, we have added a few additional counties to the Flash Flood Watch in the southeast portion of our CWA to incorporate areas that could see at least 2 inches of rainfall. At this time, no adjustments were made to counties in north Georgia, although their rainfall amounts have continued to trend under 2 inches. Given the uncertainty with the models, adjustments to counties along the GA/TN border will be addressed with the daytime forecast package today. Please note that any shift of Sally's track will shift the axis of heavy rain as well. Some of the rivers, small creeks, and streams could also respond with flooding that may linger beyond the watch period.

 

The extended is looking a lot like fall!

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Thursday Night through Tuesday/
Extended forecast period picks up as the remnants of Sally exit the area to the northeast as the upper level trough sweeps it into the Carolina's. There continues to be some uncertainty with the overall timing of Sally's track through the area and residual moisture that remains over the area into early Friday.

NBM solution for the initial portions of the long term seemed to side a little too heavily on the GFS's slower timing, and as a result, forecast was coordinated with the neighboring offices to have more of the faster ECMWF component. By early Friday morning, anticipate the bulk of any remaining Sally-related precip to be over far eastern Georgia, and have confined likely pops to that area. By mid to late Friday, expect the influence of the front to brush any continuing precipitation to the extreme southeast CWA.

Although dry high pressure moves into north Georgia early Saturday morning, the front halts briefly over central Georgia, keeping low end pops over the southern few tiers of counties through Saturday. The cool autumn air will make it all the way into the state by Sunday with highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's. The north Georgia mountains could see temperatures drop into the upper 30's and 40's by Tuesday.

Dry high pressure will dominate the area through next week.

 

FALL!!!! 

The ensemble temps for Blairsville look like this.

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I will be watching the evolution of Sally today, but once again they will be here working and my internet will be going up and down, so I'll do my best to keep you updated. 

Hope everyone has a great Wednesday!

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