Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good morning!

After the rain ended, the day didn't turn out too bad yesterday. Did you get enough rain? The morning map (infrared/temps/MSLP/surface and 850 mb winds) shows Sally moving off to the northeast while we have a nice breeze out of that same direction. Today will be the warmest of the next 5 or 6 as a cold front will be bringing our first taste of fall starting tomorrow. 

Snap346066060.thumb.png.03d13f0b8553be08a8fc50a156c5f0ac.png

 

 

 

 

Quote

As the remnants of Sally continue to move away from the forecast area, models showing good moisture remaining over the forecast area today. This will keep good cloud cover across the area today with low clouds over east Georgia and mainly high clouds over west Georgia. Models showing a long wave trough across the eastern U.S. through the short term periods as broad surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region into southern Canada with the southern extent in Georgia behind a cold front.  Models showing front pushing through the forecast area and with this in mind have kept the short term periods dry, although expect broken to overcast high clouds through the period. Near normal temperatures today and tonight will give way to cooler than normal temperatures Saturday behind the front.

Saturday Night through Thursday
All in all, a quiet long term forecast looks to be in store. Dry surface high pressure will be drifting over the the eastern U.S. Saturday night and will continue through the long term period as the center of the high builds down the Appalachian spine through Wednesday.

The fly in the ointment that we will have to Watch is the European model is bringing a tropical system across the lower MS valley on Thursday and increasing significant moisture and rain chances across much of the area while the GFS is very much drier.

Forecast temperatures are running below normal for much of the long term period.

 

Speaking of that fly... say hello to #22.

083840_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.4b9ffcea8eedc948c790bf3a1e356e26.png

083840_key_messages_sm.png.ca2d857f6ac6a8e2db40ddf3b77e2585.png

 

What will actually happen to 22 no one really knows right now. You can see from the map, 22 appears to have had too much tequila while down south, and is staggering around like a drunken sailor trying to decide which way to go.  The models aren't much help as the Euro brings it more over us while the GFS washes it out. Watch the precipitable water loops and you can see the differences.

gfs-deterministic-conus-pwat-1600387200-1600387200-1601769600-10.thumb.gif.44e3ee9047e392095e46399b9b658d80.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-pwat-1600387200-1600387200-1601251200-10.thumb.gif.5083175785ceb49ac93171121460731b.gif

 

Temperatures will drop below normal behind the front and these are the official NWS highs and lows for the next 7 days.

Highs

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-1600423200-1600423200-1600905600-200.thumb.gif.240436086483e0ddb737d3fd1582f2b2.gif

 

Lows

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-1600423200-1600423200-1600905600-200.thumb.gif.62f175ca86c4f5cd286005958398bf65.gif

 

Rainfall will be, for all practical purposes, non-existent. 

wpc-conus-total_precip_inch-1035200.thumb.png.101cf9e544e44939fd2b663930b4fc82.png

 

However, we've had some rain over the last 7 days (this image is through 8 am yesterday), so we don't really need anymore at the moment anyway. 

precip_7d_accum_atlanta_2020091712.thumb.png.7dd51aae0c9621f09bdb9ef314f9ef09.png

 

This is my forecast, yours will be very similar. 

Snap346066061.png.b95e1f24867f09e9b5022d63a72087b9.png

 

So fall arrives tomorrow (ok... Tuesday the 22nd) and I think you are going to love it!

Have a great Friday!

ffc.png.b33aff34a4c82dde0615e56efaea725a.png

mrx.thumb.png.f77b6333737a277e3b2dd9638d1508a5.png

bmx.thumb.png.0657e1182280f3f06e530c1e1cd27454.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-1600387200-1600819200-1601769600-40.gif

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 7 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...