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Tuesday, September 22 - Start of Astronomical Fall!


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Good morning!

Fall begins this morning around 9:30 am although it has felt like fall for the past 3-4 days now. ūüôā¬†The morning map shows cool fall like temperatures across much of the country except for the far southwest around AZ/CA, the Florida peninsula, and along the Gulf coastline. Tropical Depression Beta¬†is bringing some rain inland to LA and AR and that system and the rain will be moving our general direction over the next several days. The track of Beta will lead to an increase in¬†our rain chances as we move through the end of the week.

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Right now though, we are basking in some great fall weather, and that weather should continue through Wednesday before things start to go downhill.

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The latest NHC forecast has Beta curving to the NE and crossing the lower MS valley late Thursday as a weaker post tropical depression. What this means is Beta will not cause any significant impacts to the forecast area except for increasing heavy rain potential due to Beta's moisture converging over the area.

Rain chances will be increasing to start the long term Wednesday night, most so over the western CWA. The main concern then becomes Thursday into Friday as an axis of heavier rainfall tries to set up over a broad area around the I-85 and I-20 corridors extending into the mountains where 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible, favoring the late Thursday into Friday time frame with the heaviest rain.

After Friday, the GFS and European are differing with their solutions and especially moisture with the GFS overall wetter than the European. A cold front is forecast to move across the area in the Sunday to Monday time frame. So for now, roughly 30 to 50 percent pops will continue.

 

Our moisture begins to increase on Wednesday as Beta begins to push northeast.

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And of course that moisture means rain. The amounts have dropped slightly from last nights model runs, so we'll watch to see if that trend continues. This map goes through 8 am Tuesday.

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Our high temperatures won't be changing much, although the moisture will help to raise the low temps back into the 60's. Here's a look at the GFS and Euro ensembles and what they believe the temperatures will look like at Blairsville through the first week of October. The moisture/clouds/rain will act as a blanket and keep our temps up through Sunday, but once the moisture from Beta moves away, drier air returns and our temps drop again. This time a little cooler... we're stepping down toward middle of fall temperatures. 

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I started keeping records here at Big Canoe at the start of Meteorological Summer (June 1) and now my data has moved into the fall season and these are what my temperatures are looking like. I've had some pretty cool days and nights.

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Our normal highs/lows for this date look like this.

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And on the last day of the month, they look like this.

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Those cool temps the first week of October are showing up on the operational models, and those anomalies are well below normal for this time of the year. This would be 8 pm next Thursday.

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Enjoy this first "official" day of fall! As for me... I'm 22 days in to it already! 

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Have a great "Beginning of Fall" day!

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7 hours ago, matt40 said:

I've seen conflicting reports on this weekend's rain.  Planning on going to the woods, but I might hold off if it is going to rain the whole weekend.

Looks like most of the rain should be gone by mid morning Saturday. Another chance Sunday but not as heavy. As the track of Beta goes, so goes the rain.

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