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Good morning!

The moisture has started its return and there are even a few very light showers around this morning, but most of the rain should hold off until the end of the day and into the overnight hours. You can see the return of moisture from Beta in this water vapor image from this morning. 

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Today through Thursday
An upper ridge over the forecast area will flatten during the day as an upper trough deepens over the lower MS River Valley. Moisture from the remnants of Beta will increase over the forecast area through the short term. The remnants will become absorbed in the trough as it moves eastward across the TN River Valley on Thursday. This will bring increasing pops to our area... beginning with chance or slight chance this afternoon along the western areas. Pops will increase overnight into Thursday to likely or categorical over much of the area. Limited instability will be available... best cape values spreading  into western GA on Thursday. Only a slight chance for thunder has been included for Thursday. The QPF values are trending lower for this forecast run. Through Thursday amounts of one half to one inch should favor the northwest corner of GA with lesser amounts elsewhere. The greater amounts are on track to fall just beyond this forecast period into Thursday night and Friday.

Thursday Night through Tuesday
The remnants of Beta are expected to move toward or into the southern Appalachians and dissipate Friday. The moisture from Beta will have spread over the area and the highest pops will favor N and portions of central GA Thursday night and the entire area to some degree on Friday. N GA is still favored with the best rainfall amounts and Thursday night is when most of the remaining rainfall associated with Beta should occur.

After Friday, the GFS and European are in significant disagreement with their handling of moisture and rain chances with the GFS wetter and the European drier for Saturday through Tuesday. There is potential for 2 cold fronts to move across the area, one front about Sunday into Monday and another Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Overall shower and thunderstorm chances should be decreasing come Monday and Tuesday with about 30 to 40 percent chances on Saturday
and Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
The greatest forecast rainfall amounts are favoring N GA and ranging 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible, in the Wednesday night through Friday timeframe with most it coming Thursday and Thursday night. The greatest amounts are favoring the N GA mountains. We will continue to monitor for the possibility for a Flash Flood Watch.

 

Cooler air is poised to drop toward the southeast just in time to start October. These are temperature anomalies through next Saturday.

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And these are the anticipated lows for each day. Each image in this loop is visible for two seconds.

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Rainfall amounts have come down quite a bit from two days ago. This is through next Wednesday. 

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The areas that are the driest will see the greatest amounts of rainfall. This is the 10 day precipitation anomaly in inches (left) and percent (right)

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That's pretty much it for the next several days. The rain returns in earnest late today and continues through Friday before becoming only slight chances for the weekend. I am looking froward to the October 1st time frame though... I'm ready for a REAL taste of fall! 🙂

Hope you have a great Wednesday!

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Short term begins with a shortwave trof and the remnants of Beta approaching the area. Deeper moisture beginning to work into the western part of the state with PWATs now analyzed to be over 1" and expected to peak late Thu between 1/5"-2.0".   All eyes will be on the weather for Thu as the system begins to impact the region.

Expect showers to develop and continue to become more widespread through the day tomorrow along and north of I20/I85 especially. Model consensus continues to trend northward with the heaviest axis of rainfall... as such the metro ATL area is now at around 0.50" of total forecast rainfall... which is a far cry from the 3+ we were looking at 2 days ago. Surface low expected to track generally along I-20 keeping much of the area to the south in the warm sector which may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Hi res models suggesting a broken line developing and entering the state early evening Tomorrow but not all models on board with this idea. SPC day 2 does touch the CSG area with a marginal risk which will need to be watched going into Day 1.   WRF suggesting that once the low approaches it will enhance the wedge across NE GA southwestward into the metro thereby enhancing the baroclinic zone along I-20 by which the low will travel. Should that occur which is a likely scenario given the history of it happening in winter events, QPF amounts could be a tad higher across N GA given the isentropic lift/deformation zone setting up a tad further south. WRF total QPF running 1.5-3" along and north of a Gainesville->Woodstock->Tallapoosa Line. Regardless... due to Sally not impacting the far northern part of the state as severely... will opt to not issue a FFA this cycle. 

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