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Good morning!

I was REALLY surprised this morning when I woke up to 67 degrees outside.... I was suppose to drop to close to 50. So I start checking my equipment and restart the software. I go back downstairs and go outside and low and behold... it really was 67 degrees. I have another remote sensor on the upper deck and it also read 67 degrees. What the heck???

So I start digging a little further. I look on the Big Map and I see this. These are temperatures. Do you see any 67's? Neither did I. I mean Jasper was 49.

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So I go look at Big Canoe temperatures on Weathercloud and I see this. I need to figure out the elevations for a few of these stations. Two are pretty high up but have 7000+ feet for elevation, and the last time I looked, we don't have any mountains that tall. In the future it will be helpful to know all the elevations we're looking at here so I'll get out the map and figure it out.  But, we're looking at a 12 degree range in temperatures here in Big Canoe, so that's a pretty wide range for 8000 acres, but not unusual for the mountains. I would LOVE to see more stations go up here so we could really get a good idea how things work "in them thar hills". 🙂

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I'm thinking... ok. Maybe we have a warm nose. Sure enough, these are the temps at 925 mb or about 2500 feet. 21º C is about 71º F or so.  There's the problem.  

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The corresponding surface temps looked like this. Notice the higher elevations of the mountains are warmer and the valleys are much cooler. 

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One mystery solved.

As the day goes on, the high pressure to the north pushes east toward the Atlantic and that means we'll see an easterly return flow and an increase in moisture. While I didn't get cool, my dewpoint is sitting at 30 degrees right now, so very dry air where I'm at.  The easterly winds will pull moisture from the Atlantic as the day goes on.  These are the 925 mb temps and you can see that as the day goes on, those temperatures cool from the 71 degree temperatures down to 59 degrees, so at 2500 feet and up, I would expect those temperatures to drop some as the day progresses. 

Surface winds later today.

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At the surface...a high pressure ridge settles over the area. This ridge becomes centered over the Carolinas which puts North and Central GA in easterly flow this afternoon. This flow will bring an increase of Atlantic moisture back in across the state by Thursday morning with increased clouds through the day. Have continued with a slight chance for thundershowers far east central on Thursday as the easterly flow develops. 

 

But today is not really the interesting part of the the weather... that's coming up.

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Strong cold front still on tap to move through the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning. Some models continue to show modest moisture return ahead of the front, with the 0Z NAM being aggressive on this set compared to some others. SREF and GEFS continue to show several members with some light accumulations especially across north and eastern GA, so have small chance PoPs in those areas. Some of this may be due to differences in how the models are handling the formation of a surface low just of the east coast as an embedded shortwave in the upper level trough that swings through and interacts with the front and coastal baroclinic zone. Some model solutions are a little more aggressive with forming the surface low which allows it to swing some higher chances of PoPs into the area Friday before quickly moving on.

Surface front continues through the area and Friday night looks chilly. Model blend isn't quite as cold as it was 24 hours ago, as several members have come in a touch warmer in the past few runs, and if that holds may preclude the need for any frost/freeze products. Min temperatures look to get into the mid to upper 30s in the mountains and low to mid 40s across north GA. Saturday is a beautiful fall day before some warming begins again into Sunday. 

After this point, models are really beginning to diverge, with the GFS and Euro 500 mb heights completely out of phase over the US by Sunday night, with the GFS driving a large cold high pressure into the US and the Euro, well, not, potentially driven by how the two models are handling the development of a surface cyclone near the US/Canada border. We may have a shot at another system moving into the area by mid week, but definitely need to see if models can converge a little more before speaking with any confidence on the matter.

 

The much heralded Euro has not been doing very well at all lately, not sure why. But because of that, I'd hedging my bets on the GFS (never thought I'd say that). These are GFS temperature anomalies. Lots of bouncing around with the temperatures but that is a typical fall. Toward the end of the loop, we get pretty cold. 

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I'll show this image but it is NOT a forecast. It does give you an idea what the GFS is thinking this far out. These would be 8 AM low temperatures on Wednesday October 27. Our first freeze? We'll see. 

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Not much else going on right now, nice weather doesn't leave you much to talk about. 🙂 I may not have a post tomorrow morning, I have to take my car all the way down to Chamblee to have some work done on it and we have to be there at 8 am, so we'll probably need to leave around 6:30 am. Luckily, you won't miss anything. 😜 With weather like this it's not an issue. 

So... since I know you'd rather be out in the weather instead of reading this, I'll end this post. 🙂

Hope everyone has a great Wednesday!

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14 minutes ago, Mbruce said:

At my house, just north of Dawsonville at around 1600' in elevation was 48 degrees at 6am this morning. That's a crazy temperature difference you got there. 

It really is. I was shocked. It took me a while to figure out what was going on. Once I saw other stations here showing the same thing I was a little more relieved. It was pretty crazy. 

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Well... it's not good when a supercomputer goes down.

NOUS42 KWNO 141808
ADMSDM

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1806Z WED OCT 14 2020


...EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - UPDATE...

The emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has completed.
NCO is in the process of cleaning up model production after the
switch. The supercomputer (Luna) in Reston remains powered off.
With no ETR. The following models were about 1 hour delayed
(*this list is not final and may not be fully inclusive):
-16Z RAP
-16Z HRRR
-NWM
-SWMF
-12Z HWRF/HMON
-PETSS
-16Z ETSS
-NWPS
-12Z NAEFS


Gerhardt/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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27 minutes ago, Jacquiemdinolfo said:

It seems the weather forecast really has been ALL over the place this last 2 weeks! Do you expect it to warm up Sunday through the week, or stay chilly? Thank you! 

You know, I started to answer this last night, and I guess I got off on something else and forgot. I came back this morning and saw that I had started typing... 🙂

We'll see a warm up next week before the colder air returns again for next weekend.

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