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NorthGeorgiaWX

First Cold Blast of the Season

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November 10-17

If you look at the temperature and temperature anomaly maps, you'd think we were in the month of January.

Over the 7-10 days period beginning Friday, it's certainly going to feel more like winter time than fall. Temperatures start falling late Friday and during this first wave, temperatures will run about 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It appears a wedge build in on Monday and the anomalies are more like 25 degrees below normal. To help put that in perspective, the normal highs/lows for JANUARY are around the high 40's to 50 degrees and around 30 degrees for lows, and we will be normal to below normal even compared to those. 

Here's a look at the temperature anomalies according to the GFS AND.... we now have a fantasy (notice I DID NOT say it was going to snow) snow showing up the middle of next week. 

Fun times ahead!

870021849_07-GFS50-STATESUSASoutheastUS2-mTemperatureAnom.gif.2ba544790a97a51bbeda1830bd50e0bc.gif

 

23660982_07-GFS50-STATESUSASoutheastUS24-hSnowfall.gif.a2c1d22cb7b1b0f97b881e955dbf2e20.gif

 

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Speaking of that, did you see the fantasy snow map i posted for TN? Here's an updated map, and this may or may not happen, but still a good sign!

 

07-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_knoxville_30.png

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I thought we'd take a look at some of the projected temperatures with this upcoming cold blast, to see where the models stand for north Georgia.

Even though temps will be falling beginning Saturday, and Monday will be very cold due to a strong wedge that locks northeast Georgia in the cold air, but the coldest air doesn't arrive until Tue/Wed

Here are anomalies 

08-gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_23.thumb.png.4bac095a9904e4439890be0d1d93f119.png

ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus2_28.thumb.png.8da19a6df7d08472cd1dc096857270f9.png

 

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Here's the latest from the Atlanta NWS office on the incoming cold air... I have highlighted some key points that I felt were important. 

Quote

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
A strong cold front will be quickly clearing the area at the
onset of the long- term forecast period Friday night. This will
bring an end to rainfall as brisk northwest winds usher in a much
colder air mass. Saturday into Sunday will bring well below normal
temperatures as a strong surface high builds eastward into the
Appalachians. Saturday morning will initially bring widespread
temperatures in the 30s to much of north Georgia with some areas
of freezing temperatures in far north Georgia. Sunday morning will
be the coldest morning of the weekend with more widespread
freezing temperatures across much of north Georgia. Lows for much

of far north Georgia will likely dip into the 20s. On Sunday,
clouds will once again be on the increase as the surface high
begins to shift offshore and moisture begins to return in earnest
from the southwest.

Rain chances will quickly increase Sunday night into early Monday
morning as moisture surges into the area ahead of a developing
surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Monday will be a raw
and cold day with persistent rainfall and high temperatures more
akin to January than November. The surface low will transition
northeastward across the area Monday night bringing continued
rainfall before the trough axis and strong surface front clear the
area on Tuesday. When all is said and done, one to two inches of
rainfall appears likely for much of the area Monday through
Tuesday. Dry, cold air will surge back across the area as another
surface high builds into the South through Wednesday. Widespread
freezing temperatures for much of the CWA appear likely by
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal
through the end of the week.

 

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And for those of you in east Tennessee...

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
1058 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

I'll talk more about the potential for light snow in elevated
areas Friday night in the full afternoon forecast package,
however, with skies expected to clear behind the front and strong
CAA, temperatures will plunge toward or below freezing Saturday
morning. Models have been very consistent with this solution for
the last several days, so in conjunction with other TN forecast
offices, we're going to go ahead an issue a Freeze Warning for
Saturday morning. Yes, temperatures will be colder (and likely
more of a widespread hard freeze) Sunday morning, but many areas
will still reach sub-freezing temperatures Saturday morning, as
well. This headline will be issued here shortly.
 

 

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NOT A FORECAST...

Both the Euro and GFS operational models are getting antsy about some snow flakes next week. ? Way to early to know anything, but it's nice eye candy for now! As you know, it we were really concerned, we'd be watching the ensembles for guidance, but right now we're just watching for entertainment. ?

08-ecmwf_tsnow_se_33.thumb.png.0fdaba6113e831f6939bcafcfb04ff31.png

 

08-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_se_23.thumb.png.dbee927cba94c77079eaf471684ebe97.png

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I guess you've seen this?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-031-041-090415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FZ.A.0011.181110T0800Z-181110T1500Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Polk-Paulding-Haralson-
Including the cities of Calhoun, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Rome,
and Cartersville
307 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Freeze
Watch, which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.

* Temperatures...Upper 20s to lower 30s.

* Timing...3 AM EDT through 10 AM EDT.

* Impacts...Freezing temperatures may damage sensitive vegetation.
Take steps to protect plants and pets from the cold.

* Locations...Northwest and far north Georgia, along and north of a
line from Buchanan to Canton and Cleveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These
conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

08=freezw_watch.jpg

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And here it comes! ? A little blurb from the Atlanta NWS office.

Quote

Temps dropping quickly from the NW this evening into overnight and
still on track to have low 30's in north GA and upper 20's in the NE
mountains. Previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Warning
accordingly for Saturday morning. Also issued Freeze Watch for
Saturday night/Sunday morning across a larger portion of the CWA
with a bit more widespread/cooler temps progged. Highs Saturday
afternoon will struggle to make it to the 50 mark in much of north
GA and what will start as a blustery morning will lax somewhat as
enhanced NW gradient winds gradually decrease into the afternoon.

09-Snap286.thumb.jpg.528152126308c26d8237dcbc9f403df3.jpg

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NOT A FORECAST (specifically the maps)

And just one more thing from the Atlanta NWS

Quote

GFS and ECMWF models are trending towards agreement that the trough
axis and associated cold front will move southeastward out of our
area by Tuesday evening. Some uncertainty still exists regarding the
timing of drying behind the frontal passage. For now, it does not
appear that any lingering precipitation will coincide with
subfreezing temperatures but this will need to be monitored over the
next few days for the potential for frozen precipitation in far

northeast Georgia. After the passage of the cold front, another
surface high will build into the southeastern CONUS which will
promote colder and drier than average conditions from Wednesday
through the end of the extended period. Widespread freezing
temperatures are looking more likely on Wednesday and Thursday
mornings.

09-gfs_ptype_accum_atl_20.thumb.png.b24b628c733826b23e1a6522d1e34b1f.png

 

09-ecmwf_ptype_a_atl_21.thumb.png.2a7101b47af001f07827e080796084b7.png

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