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NorthGeorgiaWX

First Flakes of Snow?

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NOT A FORECAST

I going to be watching the period around the 14th-16th for a few flakes of snow. The GFS and the Euro have been going back and forth about the potential for some winter weather over the southern Appalachian mountains, and that possibility exist for the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains. 

This map is for Blairsville and is from the GEFS (GFS ensembles) and indicates a very small chance for a little light snow during that time period. Nothing to get excited about right now, but it is something to watch. 

 

07-KDZJ_2018110712_gefs_snow_384.png

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NOT A FORECAST

The models are still hinting at some flurries for the north Georgia area next week. We are still too far off to know any specifics or whether it's going to happen at all, but it sure is great to see some chances this early in the season. I know we have a few people willing to do the snow dance.... so get started! ?

 

09-ecmwf_tsnow_atl_21.png

09-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_22.png

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Just looked at the 850 mb temps, and they are actually cold enough for some snow next Wednesday, but I'm just not sure how much moisture will be available. Timing of the cold and moisture is always critical here, and especially if the conditions are marginal to begin with (as this will be). We'll know more this weekend.

09-gfs_t850_atl_22.thumb.png.0677daba9ff8bd4ff4d61be329c1310d.png

 

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I thought I'd create a separate post about the potential for some flakes of snow next week in the Tue/Wed time frame.  The chances are slim right now, but I'd rather keep all the talk about it in one post. So click "Follow" to stay updated!

 

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You may notice (or may not) that I've split some comments that I had in the "First Cold Blast..." topic and moved them here. They appear here in the order they were created, so the first comment was from Wednesday. I thought it would be better to keep all of the "snow" discussion in one thread, and maybe not but we're doing it anyway! ?

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I'll certainly have more on this later today, and again, don't get too excited. Anytime I see an opportunity to talk about snow, I'm going to do it, so a flake or a foot, just know I'm on it. ? 

The basic setup (from the GFS point of view) is a positively tilted trough that is pushing a cold front through the area. 

09-500hv.conus.thumb.png.9dc9046527daa319d997bc74c6542c5f.png

 

That trough causes an area of low pressure to form off of the Texas coast and ride up across Georgia. This is NOT the ideal path if we want winter weather, and a low that follows this path almost always brings us a cold rain. We end up too close to the low and there is just too much warm air to overcome. 

09-sfcmsl-2.thumb.png.c4a5da08b95ad1cab6b648b9a3f41cea.png

09-sfcmslp.conus.thumb.png.a03a3f012d388b86f45a50542c486a31.png

 

And that is pretty much what you see in this image. It would be the cold air chasing the moisture and that never works. That low needs to track along the coast and run up around Savannah to give us a lot of hope. We still have 3-4 days so let's watch and see where we end up!

09-prateptype_cat.conus.thumb.png.9465f518212c58275e8c5580dff2d259.png

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3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

NOT A FORECAST

The models are still hinting at some flurries for the north Georgia area next week. We are still too far off to know any specifics or whether it's going to happen at all, but it sure is great to see some chances this early in the season. I know we have a few people willing to do the snow dance.... so get started! ?

 

09-ecmwf_tsnow_atl_21.png

09-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_22.png

This is going to be an interesting winter!!

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Here's the WPC 72 hour snowfall forecast.

 

11-wpc_snow_72_50_conus2.png

 

Here's the worst case for a bust with a percentile of 5%

11-wpc_snow_72_05_conus2.thumb.png.47352f0d71c4176161699c11919e8d18.png

 

Here's the best case for a bust the other way with a percentile of 95%. Yes, the 95% is stuff dreams are made of but dreams are good aren't they? ?

11-wpc_snow_72_95_conus2.thumb.png.f79fe7fd58a8bd77adf573565c10706d.png

 

 

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Hopefully this will not be the pattern all winter long .  I noticed even Bastardi changed his bullseye to the west of us with the cold for this winter?  That would put us on the warm side of the lows as they push up from the gulf.   I am going to hex ol Joe and maybe it will not be so, lol.  We need the classic runners to make their path along the gulf across s ga, or North FL panhandle...  "Pulling hard to force things south and eastward"  !!!!!!!!

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NWS Atlanta:

Quote

We have introduced snow showers to the NE and N GA mountains Thursday night. soundings suggest NW flow snow showers as the upper low exits and wrap around moisture works in. Best window appears 7pm-1am Thu night/Friday

 

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NWS Atlanta

Quote

Late Thursday there appears to be a window where there is enough wrap around
moisture and cold air across North GA that some snow showers could start 
mixing in. Model soundings for that area suggest a shallow but saturated 
subfreezing layer below about 850mb with drier air above it which favors upslope 
snow showers. Have added snow showers which would be more likely in the NW 
facing slopes during the evening hours on Thursday into the first part of the 
overnight. Because the low is rapidly exiting to the east...much of moisture 
evacuates quickly with it so the window looks to be only about 6-9 hours or 
so. Have not included any appreciable amounts but would not be surprised
to hear about a trace or dusting in some of the higher elevations.

 

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