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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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OK! I kinda hijacked the weather discussion here.... time to get back on track! 

I'll post a few GFS ensemble images that I want you to hold on to, because we're going to compare these with the ones coming up in two days. If you read the daily post, you saw that the ensembles were trending snowier for Blairsville, so let's see how they do for other locations. I cannot possibly include every location, so I tried to get a scattered few. I may add a couple more but that will be it. The one thing that stands out to me are the very heavy snow amounts. It's one thing to see a bunch of 2-5" amounts, but multiple members with 10" or more is extremely unusual for Georgia. I just think that no one really understands where this is headed. 😉

 

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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22 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

A little closer look at the GFS ensemble (GEFS) for the next 16 days. 

gefs_snow_mean_nc_65-15.thumb.png.a4f504263cd528a111d2905e0dd816d3.png

Gimme gimme!!!!!  I love watching these things play out! I’ll take whatever is enough to shut schools down, and whatever over that is a fun bonus!!!!

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". The one thing that stands out to me are the very heavy snow amounts. It's one thing to see a bunch of 2-5" amounts, but multiple members with 10" or more is extremely unusual for Georgia. I just think that no one really understands where this is headed. 😉

I found this on American WX...(Cesarich is Met for Channel 4 wyff Greenville Sc.)

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

I think that is what the ensembles are picking up on with the huge numbers on every location.  That storm Thursday

 

Edited by RickyD
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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm telling you... it's coming, and we may see a big one! All the cards are on the table.

This is the only reason I tolerate the cold weather.....SNOW!!!!   My husband thinks we are getting nothing.  Is there a divorce lawyer on here?  LOL Just kidding!

Edited by Wendy4
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I can't help but smile at my friend James Spann.  I am from Al.  Born in Bay Minette, in "lower" AL...LOL  James is one of, if not the best i have ever seen.  But he is a old antique in a digital media world.  He is already going bonkers about " all the hype, and "Show you care, beware the share"...   lol

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6 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I can't help but smile at my friend James Spann.  I am from Al.  Born in Bay Minette, in "lower" AL...LOL  James is one of, if not the best i have ever seen.  But he is a old antique in a digital media world.  He is already going bonkers about " all the hype, and "Show you care, beware the share"...   lol

Yea, they all get like that when snow comes around, although I've seen him do the same thing. 🙂
You know, the way I see it is as long as you're not deceiving people, there is nothing wrong with discussing the weather and the weather models, but it's all about doing it responsibly. You do have some that will post things that declare certain snow maps to be a forecast, when what they show is not even a forecast at all, but simply a model run. Fortunately, there aren't many of those people, they get run outta town pretty quickly. 

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Just now, MGHoschton said:

I am not sure if this is the place to post this, if you want me to move it let me know.

What would you recommend for a basic home weather station? What are some things to look for when shopping for one?

 

I am going to create a discussion thread about personal weather stations, we seem to have enough people here to warrant it's own topic. Give me a few minutes, and I'll move the weather station post into that topic. 

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58 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

This is the only reason I tolerate the cold weather.....SNOW!!!!   My husband thinks we are getting nothing.  Is there a divorce lawyer on here?  LOL Just kidding!

Let you're husband know that you have the inside scoop that says otherwise.  😉 

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1 hour ago, Wendy4 said:

This is the only reason I tolerate the cold weather.....SNOW!!!!   My husband thinks we are getting nothing.  Is there a divorce lawyer on here?  LOL Just kidding!

Yep my hubby told me three days ago that winter is over and whatnot. I was like,ummmm no sir! He won’t believe me till it falls though ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

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My take is, yes, all the players are on the field, and I've been watching the GFS and FV3 all three runs daily for about a week.  showing some great possibilities.  Seeing some great storms with moisture coming in over perfect placement of strong high in NE.   Not trying to be a wet blanket, but we have to remember, even if all the players are on the field, the opposing team (SNOW in our climate) is Alabama, or Clemson, or Patriots, and we (actually getting snow) are someone else, take your pick.   Just like in football, you can have a good game plan, but the superior team (Climate for our area)  is going to beat you most of the time due to you fumbling (warm nose), or throwing an interception (cold crushing the moisture), etc etc.  This isn't to say I don't feel good about it, just trying to keep my expectations in check.  I do feel like this year we are at least the GA Bulldogs (woof woof) and not some division II school, so don't get me wrong, I like, no, love, our chances. 

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That’s the one thing I noticed last night, and I’m glad you did as well, that despite the GFS losing the storm it actually gained some support on the ensembles. These Great Lakes cutters are going to be the norm for a little while, but all it takes is good timing with a well placed high and we get hit. And with so many pieces flying around, trying to place any of them past 4-5 days is a crapshoot. Yesterday’s 18z GFS showed more separation between the storm waves, slowing the midweek storm down by over a day, to the 24th-25th which made it miss the weakness between the two highs and was forced to stay south. And looking at the ensemble members nearly all of them that show significant snow show it first around the 25th. So I think we know the timing we need, it’s just whether or not we get it. Notice the date at the top of the 2 images and the placement of the high pressures.D05900AB-B887-4240-A50C-B16CA40555C5.thumb.png.e45041318c77e29a0fdad24c0fb46a8f.pngDF714E35-5BDE-4DD4-8AD1-D29FFC09DCA8.thumb.png.d92ea961cb87699824a2551bd025fe0e.png

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Yep. And that's why I've tried to make the point to not pay much attention to the operational model runs. Someone on the FB page asked me about Toccoa and they were panicking because they didn't see any snow on the model run.  So I showed the ensemble chart for there and almost every run had snow except the control run. So if if a person only looks at the operational runs, they miss the other 20 GFS runs that might show something. 

As much as we'd like to pick out the details right now, they are changing too much to make any sense out of them. That's the purpose of the ensembles. I'll say it again, it's all about the trends right now, not the details. We are going to have winter weather. Whether it's this weekend or next week or the following week... it's coming. The details will emerge very soon.

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Well keep the ensemble coming....I live in Athens and work in Lithonia just outside of Atlanta. So I have to watch the weather for a good part of the state.  Thanks also for all the information about models and things it helps me and I am sure others understand better.  I also need as much heads up as I as can get since my office manages rental properties and we have to spread the word about bad weather.

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33 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yep. And that's why I've tried to make the point to not pay much attention to the operational model runs. Someone on the FB page asked me about Toccoa and they were panicking because they didn't see any snow on the model run.  So I showed the ensemble chart for there and almost every run had snow except the control run. So if if a person only looks at the operational runs, they miss the other 20 GFS runs that might show something. 

As much as we'd like to pick out the details right now, they are changing too much to make any sense out of them. That's the purpose of the ensembles. I'll say it again, it's all about the trends right now, not the details. We are going to have winter weather. Whether it's this weekend or next week or the following week... it's coming. The details will emerge very soon.

so fun looking at the maps, and then seeing what you and others post.  I suspect many of us are just seeing blobs, whereas folks like you are seeing a much more granular picture.  like King said i'm starting to take notice of the high position and strength rather than just looking at the storms. Try to look at the 500 mb vorticity too, if I'm saying that right.   But I have a question. what is the difference between GEFS and GEPS. I assume the E stands for ensemble. 

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I'm just reading along and enjoying the anticipation.  And as I said before, I figure this is the year to not run out of favorite snacks or hot chocolate!  It might be fun to have a thread about "what do YOU like to have on hand for winter weather situations?"  I'll bet we could come up with a pretty good list!

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